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The chapter gives an overview of the efforts to model technological change, which to date have been largely disappointing. Macroeconomic models that treat technology as a residual quantity are discussed first, both in their original classical growth accounting formulation as well as in their contemporary use in macroeconomic energy and environmental models. The chapter then presents sectoral models as well as models based on microeconomic foundations. The latter two types of models offer greater insights and explanations of the dynamics of technological change. These are characterized by features of path dependency, i.e., change in a persistent direction influenced by past decisions, technological uncertainty, diversity, learning, and interaction between economic agents.
Models of Technological Change
We start with a disappointing confession. There is no single model, or class of models, that captures all the aspects of technological change outlined in Chapter 2 in even a rudimentary integrated fashion. It is not from lack of trying. Hundreds of models have been developed with various levels of aggregation, theoretical underpinnings, and empirical corroboration. We cannot do justice to them all here. They are considered in two categories: at a macrolevel and a sectoral/microlevel. Illustrative examples for each are presented, along with their (few) strengths and (numerous) deficiencies and omissions. How to improve this situation (at least partially) will be discussed in the Postscript chapter. Ideas and applications developed by the author and his colleagues at IIASA will be presented, together with illustrations primarily from the energy sector.
Technological changes since the onset of the Industrial Revolution are summarized. The concept of technology clusters, i.e., a set of interrelated technological, infrastructural, and organizational innovations driving output and productivity growth during particular periods of time is used to explain these changes. Four historical technology clusters are identified, with a prospective fifth, emerging one. The most salient characteristics of each cluster are discussed with illustrative examples. The chapter concludes with a discussion of quantitative and statistical approaches that corroborate the concept of technology clusters.
A Long View of Technology Development: The Last 200 Years
This section is a synoptic tour d'horizon of 200 years of technological change. It provides a historical overview and identifies distinct periods of technological change in order to set the stage for more detailed discussions in Part II of individual technological changes and their global environmental change implications. Our principal organizing concept is that of technology “families” or “clusters”. A technology cluster is a set of interrelated technological and organizational innovations whose pervasive adoption drives a particular period of economic growth, productivity increases, industrialization, trade, and associated structural changes.
Technology clusters do not follow one after the other in a rigid temporal sequence. Various clusters coexist in any given period, although the relative importance of each keeps shifting. Older technological and infrastructural vintages coexist with the dominant technology cluster. In some cases older clusters are perpetuated by government policy even after more modern technologies are well established in other parts of the international economy.
The final chapter summarizes the technology–environment paradox – technology as both source and remedy of environmental change – and mentions technology's additional critical role as an instrument for observing and monitoring environmental change. Examples are presented of how the technology-environment paradox has been resolved, and has reemerged, throughout history. The critical questions are, first, which aspect of technology – as source or remedy of environmental change – currently has the upper hand and, second, how to tilt the scales toward the latter? To answer the first question, the chapter summarizes the balance of evidence from agriculture, industry, and the service sector. Answering the second question requires better models of technological change than we have today. The chapter reviews the major insights from the previous chapters that should be incorporated in improved models and lays out the major challenges that remain. The chapter concludes with a discussion of open issues that remain for a deeper understanding of the interactions between technology and global (environmental) change. Technology's most important historical role has been to liberate humanity from environmental constraints. That job is not complete, and the immediate challenge is to include the billions of people who have so far been excluded from the benefits of technology. The next challenge is to wisely use the power of technology to “liberate” the environment from human interference.
The “Paradox” of Technology and the Environment
Paul Gray (1989) describes as a “paradox” of technological development the fact that technology is both a source and remedy of environmental change.
Land resource issues are problems in land use planning and resource management, arising from the interactions between human society and the natural environment. This chapter identifies the key land resource issues for the ‘three worlds of the tropics’, the major agro-ecological zones: the humid tropics or rain forest zone, the subhumid tropics or savannas, and the dry lands, semi-arid and desert. Cutting across these climatic regions are two distinctive environments: steeplands and alluvial lowlands. Land resource issues are related to the essential nature of sustainable land use: combining the efficient use of resources to meet present needs with their conservation for the future. Many issues are concerned with the avoidance of land degradation.
The concept of land resource issues brings together two of the principal aspects of land use planning and management, making the best use of resources, and conserving them for the future – in short, sustainable use of the land resources. Land resource issues affect the state or condition of resources, but are not problems of the physical environment alone. They arise from the interactions between resources offered by the physical environment, the needs of land users, competition for land, and methods of land management.
Many other problems and policy issues have major impacts on land, but are not land resource issues as such. Examples are marketing facilities, supplies of agricultural inputs, veterinary services, and pricing policies.
The present rate of world population increase, 240 000 people a day, poses immense problems, not least for land resource management. Future growth will nearly all take place in the developing world. Some countries, such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Pakistan, and much of the African Sahelian zone, are already close to their limit for sustainable support to their people. Population increase will augment problems of landlessness, land degradation, and food security. Poverty and undernutrition add to these problems. There are also major consequences for human welfare or its opposite, suffering: direct links between population pressure and famine, and indirect but strong connections with civil conflict and war.
Scientists and governments have each made major international policy statements on population. Both accept the integral nature of population, economic growth, and environment, but there is one critical difference. The scientists state clearly that global social, economic, and environmental problems cannot be solved without an early approach to zero population growth, if possible within the lifetime of today's children. The governments could not commit themselves to such a statement. All are agreed on a set of ethically acceptable measures for reducing population growth, based on provision of family planning and reproductive health services, and measures to improve the welfare, education, and status of women. An immediate and major effort to apply such measures would contribute more than any other form of development to human welfare. Policy, planning, and action to check population growth is not merely an associated factor, but in the wider perspective is an integral part of land resource policy and management.
The older approach to land management, based on the transfer of Western technologies, has been replaced by a new set of ideas. For management of the croplands, new approaches include the land husbandry basis for soil conservation, low-input sustainable agriculture, and small-scale irrigation. On open rangelands, reconciling the extreme complexity of land management needs with communal tenure raises problems which are almost insuperable. Multiple-purpose forest management has replaced the earlier focus on wood production. Agroforestry has helped to diversify farm production, and offered new means of soil management.
These new approaches have a number of ideas in common: understanding the processes in the soil, water, and plant ecosystem, as a basis for their modification; adapting management methods to the infinite variety of local conditions; and increasing production not by taking in more land nor with higher inputs, but by using soils, water, fertilizers, and plant resources with greater efficiency. Finally, it has invariably been found that best results come from a participatory approach, implementing changes through the joint efforts of resource scientists and the knowledge and skills of the local people.
The fundamental principle of land management is sustainability, the combination of production with conservation. Given the extent of poverty, the urgency of the food situation in the developing world, and the present low level of productivity of many farming systems, the priority must be to increase production. This has to be achieved in ways that do not degrade, and where possible improve, the land resource base on which production depends.
Only recently has a fundamental fact been realized in development planning: that whatever may be achieved by development projects, ultimately it is people who manage land resources: farmers, other land users, and local communities. Farm systems research was only a stage along the route to this realization. A true participatory approach is based on the sharing of knowledge and views between advisers and farmers, linking scientific advances with the store of local knowledge. Participatory projects by non-governmental organizations have achieved striking local successes, particularly in the area of soil conservation. But this approach can never be scaled up to reach the rural community at large until it is implemented by countries themselves, either through national advisory services or, if these fail, through self-help by farming communities.
If there is a single theme which runs through the success, or otherwise, of projects in natural resource management, it would be ‘people matter’. This goes without saying in developed countries, where farmers and residents' associations are organized into strong lobbies, and will respond to any proposals for change. Continuing co-operation with local land users, from the first conception of a project to its implementation, is as important or more so in the typical situation of developing countries, in which land users are more numerous but less powerfully organized.
There is a set of approaches which have in common the interaction between farmers and developers – more precisely, between the local land users on the one hand, and the scientists, planners, developers, or other non-local people on the other.
Improvements in land resource management can only come about if they are preceded by awareness of the problems, and recognition of the need for action. At international level, there is a strong measure of agreement on priorities, including poverty reduction, avoidance of land degradation, research, and people's participation in decision-making. At national level, land resource policies cannot be applied in isolation. There first needs to be avoidance of civil conflict, good government, and attention to development of the rural sector, leading to a recognition of the role of land resources. This provides a framework for a set of national land resource policies, including improved survey and evaluation, efforts to combat land degradation, the effective linking of research with extension, a national land use plan, and monitoring of the national heritage of land resources. This will require a strengthening of institutions, with improvements in education and training. None of these measures will be fully effective unless accompanied by greater efforts to reduce rates of population growth; demographic policy is an integral part of rural land development.
Land resources play a critical role in human welfare. Land is no longer abundant, and its productive potential is being reduced by degradation. Sustainability, the combination of production with conservation of resources to meet the needs of future generations, is the key to land management. Whilst a valuable contribution can come from international co-operation, the ultimate responsibility lies with the people and governments of developing countries. Awareness, and with it the will to bring about change, can only come from within.
In 1958, I began a three-year period as Soil Surveyor to the Government of Malawi, then Nyasaland, carrying out a reconnaissance land resource survey of the country; and, in 1993–5, completed consultancies on land use policy in Jamaica, land degradation in South Asia, and the preparation of an international programme to monitor changes in land conditions. Between those times I have worked on soil survey methods, land evaluation, land use planning and policy, and carried out research into land management, particularly through agroforestry.
This book is a review of land resources: their evaluation, management, and conservation, and their role in human welfare. Land resources are the environmental resources of climate, water, soils, landforms, forests, pastures, and wildlife, on which agriculture, forestry, and other kinds of rural land use depend. Renewable natural resources is an alternative name. Whilst details of the methods used differ from one kind of resource to another, many principles are common to their survey, evaluation, planning, and management. I also set down the opinions I have formed, in places more forcefully than was possible when writing as a consultant.
The objectives of the book are:
to improve awareness of the critical role of land resources as a major element in the development of agriculture and the rural sector;
to review the progress that has been made in different aspects of land resources, and to point to priorities for the future;
to draw attention to the urgent need for action to improve the management of land resources, if they are to be conserved for the benefit of future generations;
to show how land resources interact with wider aspects of development, including food security, poverty, and population policy.
Despite growing recognition of the importance of environmental criteria, many investment decisions by development agencies are taken primarily on grounds of economics, and, specifically, on returns to investment. If natural resource considerations are to be allotted their rightful importance, there is no avoiding their conversion into money terms. Economic values are needed for analysis of soil and other land conservation projects, for estimating the loss to society caused by land degradation, and for national environmental accounting. Conventional economic methods undervalue natural resources; they may appear to come free, or to be priced at either their marginal or average values, ignoring the far higher price that would be paid if they became scarce. Above all, the practice of discounting, as employed in cost–benefit analysis, grossly underestimates future option values, the value of resources for use in the future. A consequence is that the economic losses caused by erosion, salinization, and other kinds of degradation are greatly undervalued. Economic methods as currently applied give equal weight to the needs of today's poor, but they steal resources, and thus welfare, from future generations. Assigning a value to land resources equal to their productive potential for at least 500 years, which virtually amounts to a sustainability constraint, would help to remedy this iniquitous situation.
Is it necessary, useful, or possible to assign an economic value to soils, water, forests, and pastures? There are certainly difficulties in doing so, and the first point to consider is whether it needs to be done at all.
Resource surveys and land evaluation studies are only a means to an end. It is at the further stage of land use planning, and projects in the area of natural resource management, that action gets taken. Land use planning does not only mean making plans; it covers their implementation and management, monitoring of progress, and revision. The most important scales are national level, for policy guidance and priorities, and district or project level, where developments are put into practice. Planning must be focused on the problems of land users, but these must be reconciled with other interests. The wide range of objectives, covering production, conservation, and the different sectors of land use, means that no standardized method is possible. The best that can be done is to provide a set of guidelines giving basic steps, with checklists of activities, together with decision support systems. Past experience and informed judgement will always be needed. Natural resource aspects should play a continuing role during the later stages of project planning, including during implementation and monitoring of progress.
The procedures of natural resource survey, land evaluation, and participatory methods, are carried out with the intention of improving the people's welfare. Throughout these stages, however, no one has yet taken any action to change, hopefully to improve, the present situation. The old land use systems are still being practised, soil is eroding, vegetation degrading, crop yields remain low, and the poor are still hungry – or whatever may be the problems of the region concerned.
The view that further research into land resource management is unnecessary, that all that is needed is more widespread application of existing knowledge, rests on a misunderstanding of the nature of science, in its pure and applied aspects. A spectrum of research is needed: fundamental, basic, applied and adaptive. Universities and international centres are best fitted to carry out fundamental and basic research, national institutions the applied and adaptive. The final stage of research is carried out by farmers, critically trying out new methods. The achievements of the ‘green revolution’ phase of research, based on improved crop varieties, led to threefold to fivefold increases in crop yields. Further advances will be achieved, but more slowly and with greater effort. The problems encountered with high-technology, highinput land use systems have led to a new approach to research, which stresses maintenance of soil biological activity and improved nutrient cycling, leading to more efficient use of limited inputs.
Whether assessed in economic terms or in its wider contribution to human welfare, research produces extremely high ratios between benefits and costs. There is a serious shortfall in funding. At the international level, donors should at least double the proportion of aid directed towards research; by doing so, they will bring longer-lasting benefits to farmers. Still more important is that governments of developing countries should recognize the need to strengthen their presently inadequate national research services. Farmers will not adopt improved methods without a basis of applied and adaptive research to ensure that these are convincingly effective.