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2 - The Asad regime: a study in survival

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2025

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Summary

The Syrian regime has never ceased governing the state, despite losing territory to opposition groups, including ISIL, which at one point controlled an area roughly the size of Belgium in both Syria and Iraq (Gilsinan 2014), and to external actors, such as Turkey and the US, and ceding ground to Kurdish groups in the northeast. According to international law, the Syrian state has continued to exercise sovereignty over its territory, even when lost, and has represented the entire country in all international organizations, including the UN. Moreover, the Syrian state has continued to staff and manage its diplomatic missions. In other words, although Syria has been mired in conflict for over a decade, the underlying structure of the state has remained intact, unlike in Libya, where there has been state collapse. With the support of key allies, the regime has managed to retain control over not just the government but also over state institutions, even when its authority has been usurped (Phillips 2020).

In this chapter, we account for the resilience of the Syrian regime. We explore two key features of the regime, which have helped it survive regional wars, social unrest, uprisings, revolutions and civil war. First, we examine the foundations of the Syrian state, laid by Hafez Asad. Hafez's vision was to develop a state supported by strong institutions, but not so strong that they could overshadow the leader and his inner circle. Egypt's Mubarak, for example, was made to step down by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. The balance Hafez sought proved advantageous to both him and his successor, Bashar Asad. Even when faced with widespread desertions from senior security and military personnel and mass military defections, Bashar could still rely upon support from key institutions, such as the People's Council (Hinnebusch & Imady 2018). The state that Hafez built ensured that the regime's core remained united even when domestic and external pressures threatened its very existence.

Second, despite being a relatively small country, Syria has managed to adapt its foreign policy so that it can survive and even thrive during times of change, such as transitions in the world order. The Syrian state sided with the Soviet Union during the bipolar era, then oriented itself somewhat towards the US during the unipolar period, and has sided with Moscow since 2011.

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Chapter
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Syria
Realism in Action
, pp. 27 - 42
Publisher: Agenda Publishing
Print publication year: 2024

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