Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Introduction to risk management and risk assessments. Challenges
- 2 Concepts and perspectives on risk
- 3 Science and scientific requirements
- 4 Introduction to case studies
- 5 Risk assessment when the objective is accurate risk estimation
- 6 Risk assessment when the objective is uncertainty descriptions
- 7 Risk management and communication issues
- 8 Towards a holistic scientific approach to risk assessment
- 9 Conclusions
- Appendix A Introduction to probability theory and statistical analysis
- Appendix B Terminology
- References
- Index
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Introduction to risk management and risk assessments. Challenges
- 2 Concepts and perspectives on risk
- 3 Science and scientific requirements
- 4 Introduction to case studies
- 5 Risk assessment when the objective is accurate risk estimation
- 6 Risk assessment when the objective is uncertainty descriptions
- 7 Risk management and communication issues
- 8 Towards a holistic scientific approach to risk assessment
- 9 Conclusions
- Appendix A Introduction to probability theory and statistical analysis
- Appendix B Terminology
- References
- Index
Summary
Risk assessment is in many respects acknowledged as a scientific discipline per se: there are many master and PhD programmes worldwide covering this field, and many scientific journals and conferences highlighting the area. However, there are few books addressing the scientific basis of this discipline, which is unfortunate as the area of risk assessment is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive and enthusiasm to implement risk assessment methods in organisations. Without a proper basis, risk assessment would fail as a scientific method or activity. Consider the following example, a statement from an experienced risk assessment team about uncertainty in quantitative risk assessments (Aven, 2008a):
The assessments are based on the “best estimates” obtained by using the company's standards for models and data. It is acknowledged that there are uncertainties associated with all elements in the assessment, from the hazard identification to the models and probability calculations. It is concluded that the precision of the assessment is limited, and that one must take this into consideration when comparing the results with the risk acceptance criteria and tolerability limits.
Based on such a statement, one may question what the scientific basis of the risk assessment is. Everything is uncertain, but is not risk assessment performed to assess the uncertainties? From the cited statement it looks like the risk assessment generates uncertainty. In any event, does this acknowledgment – that a considerable amount of uncertainty exists – affect the analyses and the conclusions?
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- Information
- Quantitative Risk AssessmentThe Scientific Platform, pp. vii - xPublisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2011
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