Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2025
Okinawa should be one of the most famous and popular destinations on the planet. As part of the Ryukyu Islands arc that stretches southwestward from the tip of Japan's southernmost main island, Kyushu, down almost as far as the northeast coast of Taiwan, Okinawa Prefecture sits amid the coral-filled, emerald-green waters that separate the East China Sea to the west and Pacific Ocean to the east (see Map 2). Yet its idyllic subtropical climate, rich fishing grounds and pacifistic local culture belie a deeply troubled past, strained present and ominous future. This is because Okinawa has historically been a flashpoint for great power rivalry and once again threatens to become one, in economic, political and geostrategic terms. The main island of Okinawa, its remote off-islands and their maritime surrounds are a site of unique geostrategic, socio-cultural, economic and environmental interest, but the islands’ pivotal position has also previously made them a battleground and makes them a potential site of future conflict. This includes an ongoing contest for power and regional hegemony between the United States (US), its staunch ally in East Asia, Japan, and a rising China. In the past, the prefecture has progressed from being a vassal state of China in the form of an independent kingdom, to colonization by Japan, becoming a US protectorate after Japan's defeat in the Second World War, and then from 1972 to the present once again reverting to Japanese sovereign rule as Japan's forty-seventh prefecture.
There have been various significant developments since its reversion to Japanese rule, including how the prefecture has been affected by its disproportionate hosting of American – and now increasingly Japanese – armed forces stationed at the numerous US and Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) military bases on the islands. The US presence in particular has increasingly become the focus of a broader regional power contest being played out between the US, China and Japan, with substantial interest also from Taiwan, both Koreas and Russia. Okinawa and the so-called First Island Chain, along which it is located, therefore, remain key sites of great power competition and contestation, making them a seemingly inevitable flashpoint in the coming decades of the twenty-first century.
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