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Information on social aspects of climate change intervention, such as behavioral choices and public acceptance, are often not included in global climate models. As a result, they have been critiqued for not adequately reflecting ‘real world’ conditions. At the same time, these models are important and influential policy tools. To improve these models, calls are being made for more interaction – or integration – between the social science and modelling research communities. Yet, it remains unclear how to achieve this. Responding to this gap, we explore what kind of integration is currently taking place, how, and opportunities for further development.
Technical Summary
The importance of social drivers of climate change interventions, or social aspects, is currently underrepresented in computational modelling projections. These parameters are largely excluded from estimates of technical mitigation potential, feasibility, and tools like integrated assessment models (IAMs) and other large-scale models that influence the development of climate policies and notable bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper contributes to calls being made within the research community to address this gap and strengthen linkages between modelling practices and social science insights. Using nature-based solutions (NbS) as a framing, we present the results of a critical literature review and interviews with multidisciplinary experts reflecting on the current state of integration around IAMs and opportunities to better capture social aspects within large-scale modelling processes. Our findings confirm the need to incorporate social aspects in IAMs, but highlight that how this happens in practice may depend on context, project objectives, or pragmatic choices rather than conceptual notions about what ‘good’ integration is. Nevertheless, some integration strategies are better than others, and concerns about data limitations and low capacity of the IAM community for engaging in integration can be overcome with sufficient support and complementary efforts from the broader research community.
Social Media Summary
Integrating social aspects in large-scale models requires complementary efforts from the broader research community.
The knowledge that is used in IPCC assessments predominantly stems from a wide variety of academic disciplines. Given the high scientific and political profile of the IPCC, the production of knowledge in disciplines is impacted by the existence and dynamics of the IPCC assessment process. In some cases, the dynamics between academic disciplines and the IPCC is characterised by the presence of positive feedback loops, where the production of knowledge is structured and programmed by the IPCC. The subsequent findings then receive a preeminent role in later IPCC assessments, and so the cycle continues. It is important to critically reflect on these dynamics, in order to determine whether visions of climate change’s past, present, and future – for example, pathways for the climate-change problem and its potential solutions, as far as they exist – have not been unduly constrained by the IPCC process. The IPCC runs the risk of unreflexively foregrounding some scientific and policy approaches at the expense of other approaches.
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