The present study aims to delineate the role of preexisting depression for changes in common mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Using mixed-effects linear regression models, we analyzed data on the course of depressive (Patient Health Questionnaire-2) and anxiety (Generalized Anxiety Disorder-2) symptoms as well as loneliness (three-item UCLA Loneliness Scale) in a subset of the Socio-Economic Panel Study, a large and nationally representative household panel study from Germany. Participants were assessed during the first COVID-19 wave in Germany (March 31 to July 4, 2020; n = 6,694) and prospectively followed up at the peak of the second COVID-19 wave (January 18 to February 15, 2021; n = 6,038).

Overall, anxiety and depressive symptoms decreased, whereas loneliness increased from the first to the second COVID-19 wave. However, depressive symptoms increased and the surge in loneliness was steeper in those with versus without clinically relevant depressive symptoms in 2019 or a history of a depressive disorder before the COVID-19 pandemic. Anxiety symptoms remained stable throughout the pandemic in individuals with versus without clinically relevant depressive symptoms in 2019. Pre-pandemic depression was associated with overall higher depressive and anxiety symptoms and loneliness across both assessments. The stringency of lockdown measures did not affect the results.

Our findings suggest that individuals with a history of depressive symptoms before the COVID-19 pandemic are at increased risk to experience an escalation of mental health problems due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, they might particularly profit from targeted prevention and early intervention programs.