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Chapter 3 establishes that the Dutch had economic incentives to continue holding slaves. Slavery in Dutch New York was not just a cultural choice, but was reinforced by economic considerations. From archival sources and published secondary sources, I have compiled a unique dataset of prices for over 3,350 slaves bought, sold, assessed for value, or advertised for sale in New York and New Jersey. This data has been coded by sex, age, county, price, and type of record, among other categories. It is as far as I know the only slave price database for slaves in the Northern states yet assembled. Regression analysis allows us to compute the average price of Northern slaves over time, the relative price difference between male and female slaves, the price trend relative to known prices in the American South, and other variables such as the price differential between New York City slaves and slaves in other counties in the state. Slave prices in New York and New Jersey appear relatively stable over time, but declined in the nineteenth century. The analysis shows that slaveholders in Dutch New York were motivated by profit, and they sought strength and youth in purchasing slaves.
In many regression applications, users are often faced with difficulties due to nonlinear relationships, heterogeneous subjects, or time series which are best represented by splines. In such applications, two or more regression functions are often necessary to best summarize the underlying structure of the data. Unfortunately, in most cases, it is not known a priori which subset of observations should be approximated with which specific regression function. This paper presents a methodology which simultaneously clusters observations into a preset number of groups and estimates the corresponding regression functions' coefficients, all to optimize a common objective function. We describe the problem and discuss related procedures. A new simulated annealing-based methodology is described as well as program options to accommodate overlapping or nonoverlapping clustering, replications per subject, univariate or multivariate dependent variables, and constraints imposed on cluster membership. Extensive Monte Carlo analyses are reported which investigate the overall performance of the methodology. A consumer psychology application is provided concerning a conjoint analysis investigation of consumer satisfaction determinants. Finally, other applications and extensions of the methodology are discussed.
This paper presents an analysis, based on simulation, of the stability of principal components. Stability is measured by the expectation of the absolute inner product of the sample principal component with the corresponding population component. A multiple regression model to predict stability is devised, calibrated, and tested using simulated Normal data. Results show that the model can provide useful predictions of individual principal component stability when working with correlation matrices. Further, the predictive validity of the model is tested against data simulated from three non-Normal distributions. The model predicted very well even when the data departed from normality, thus giving robustness to the proposed measure. Used in conjunction with other existing rules this measure will help the user in determining interpretability of principal components.
Guttman's assumption underlying his definition of “total images” is rejected: Partial images are not generally convergent everywhere. Even divergence everywhere is shown to be possible. The convergence type always found on partial images is convergence in quadratic mean; hence, total images are redefined as quadratic mean-limits. In determining the convergence type in special situations, the asymptotic properties of certain correlations are important, implying, in some cases, convergence almost everywhere, which is also effected by a countable population or multivariate normality or independent variables. The interpretations of a total image as a predictor, and a “common-factor score”, respectively, are made precise.
Whenever statistical analyses are applied to multiply imputed datasets, specific formulas are needed to combine the results into one overall analysis, also called combination rules. In the context of regression analysis, combination rules for the unstandardized regression coefficients, the t-tests of the regression coefficients, and the F-tests for testing \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$R^{2}$$\end{document} for significance have long been established. However, there is still no general agreement on how to combine the point estimators of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$R^{2}$$\end{document} in multiple regression applied to multiply imputed datasets. Additionally, no combination rules for standardized regression coefficients and their confidence intervals seem to have been developed at all. In the current article, two sets of combination rules for the standardized regression coefficients and their confidence intervals are proposed, and their statistical properties are discussed. Additionally, two improved point estimators of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$R^{2}$$\end{document} in multiply imputed data are proposed, which in their computation use the pooled standardized regression coefficients. Simulations show that the proposed pooled standardized coefficients produce only small bias and that their 95% confidence intervals produce coverage close to the theoretical 95%. Furthermore, the simulations show that the newly proposed pooled estimates for \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$R^{2}$$\end{document} are less biased than two earlier proposed pooled estimates.
This chapter uses the Strategic Displacement in Civil Conflict dataset to conduct a cross-national analysis of displacement by state actors, who it finds are the predominant perpetrators. The statistical tests provide an indirect test of the arguments by revealing where strategic displacement in general, and forced relocation in particular, tends to occur, and by identifying the factors associated with the use of these strategies across conflicts. It also evaluates the observable implications of several alternative explanations for state-induced displacement, including ethnic nationalism, rebel threat/desperation, and collective punishment. The results show that, consistent with the theory, different displacement strategies occur in different contexts and seem to follow different logics. Cleansing is more likely in conventional civil wars, where territorial conquest takes primacy, while forced relocation is more likely in irregular wars, where information and identification problems are most acute. The evidence indicates that cleansing follows a logic of punishment. The results for relocation, however, are consistent with the implications of the assortative theory: It is more likely to be employed by resource-constrained incumbents fighting insurgencies in “illegible” areas – rural, peripheral territories – and when incumbents lack group-level information about wartime loyalties.
SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics within households involving children are complex. We examined the association between paediatric index case (PIC) age and subsequent household SARS-CoV-2 transmission among cases reported to the Minnesota Department of Health between March 2021 and February 2022. In our primary analysis, we used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios adjusted for race/ethnicity, sex, geographic region, and disease severity among households with an unvaccinated PIC. We performed a secondary analysis among households where the PIC was eligible for vaccination adjusting for the same covariates plus time since the last vaccination. Both analyses were stratified by variant wave. During the Alpha wave, PICs of all age groups had similar odds of subsequent transmission. During Delta and Omicron waves, PICs aged 16–17 had higher odds of subsequent transmission than PICs aged 0–4 (Delta OR, 1.32; [95% CI, 1.16–1.51], Omicron OR, 4.21; [95% CI, 3.25–5.45]). In the secondary analysis, unvaccinated PICs had higher odds of subsequent transmission than vaccinated PICs (Delta OR 2.89 [95% CI, 2.18–3.84], Omicron OR 1.35 [95% CI, 1.21–1.50]). Enhanced preventative measures, especially for 12–17-year-olds, may limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission within households involving children.
In this chapter, I test the effects of post-Stalinist transitions on two important measures of agency capacity: officers employed and individuals registered as secret informants by coercive agencies. I present an original cross-national dataset on officer and informant numbers for every coercive agency in communist Central and Eastern Europe from 1945 to 1989. I show that countries that experienced post-Stalinist transitions had similarly sized coercive agencies to other states before 1953, but these agencies shrank thereafter while others continued to grow. I then estimate a series of difference-in-difference models to test the effect of post-Stalinist transitions on agency size. I find that agencies under post-Stalinist regimes had significantly smaller coercive agencies after Stalin’s death. This confirms the theoretical logic laid out in Chapter 2 in a broader setting than the comparative historical analyses of Poland and East Germany in Chapters 4 and 5. Although the number of cases and coverage of data here are limited, my results suggest that the logic of elite cohesion and coercive capacity laid out in Chapter 2 is applicable to a wide range of authoritarian regimes.
This chapter follows the definition of ‘empirical legal studies’ as research which applies quantitative methods to questions about the relationship between law and society, in particular with the aim of drawing conclusions about causal connections between variables. Comparative law does not typically phrase its research as being interested in questions of causal inference. Yet, implicitly, it is very much interested in such topics as it explores, for example, the determinants of legal differences between countries or when it evaluates how far it may be said that one of the legal solutions is preferable. It is thus valuable that significant progress has been made in empirical approaches to comparative law that may be able to show robust causal links about the relationship between law and society. This chapter outlines the main types of such studies: experiments, cross-sectional studies, panel data analysis and quasi-experiments. However, it also shows that such studies face a number of methodological problems. This chapter concludes that often it may be most promising to combine different methods in order to reach a valid empirical result.
Neurotechnology has been applied to gain insights on creativity-related cognitive factors. Prior research has identified relations between cognitive factors and creativity qualitatively; while quantitative relations, such as the relative importance of cognitive factors and creativity, have not been fully determined. Therefore, taking the creative design process as an example, this study using electroencephalography (EEG) aims to objectively identify how creativity-related cognitive factors of retrieval, recall, association, and combination contribute to creativity. The theoretical basis for an EEG-based decoding method to objectively identify which cognitive factors occur in a creative process is developed. Thirty participants were recruited for a practical study to verify the reliability of the decoding method. Based on the methodology, relationships between the relative importance level of the cognitive factor and creative output quality levels were detected. Results indicated that the occurrence of recall and association are reported with a high reliability level by the decoding method. The results also indicated that association is the dominant cognitive factor for higher creative output quality levels. Recall is the dominant cognitive factor for lower creative output quality levels.
There are a variety of approaches to biventricular repair in neonates and infants with adequately sized ventricles and left-sided obstruction in the presence of a ventricular septal defect. Those who undergo this in a staged manner initially undergo a Norwood procedure followed by a ventricular septal defect closure such that the neo-aorta is entirely committed to the left ventricle and placement of a right ventricular to pulmonary artery conduit (Yasui operation). This study aimed to determine clinical and haemodynamic factors upon paediatric cardiac ICU admission immediately after the two-stage Yasui operation that was associated with post-operative length of stay.
Methods:
This was a retrospective review of patients who underwent the Yasui procedure after the initial Norwood operation between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2020. Patients with complete data on admission were identified and analysed using Bayesian regression analysis.
Results:
A total of 15 patients were included. The median age was 9.0 months and post-operative length of stay was 6days. Bayesian regression analysis demonstrated that age, weight, heart rate, mean arterial blood pressure, central venous pressure, pulse oximetry, cerebral near infrared spectroscopy, renal near infrared spectroscopy, pH, pCO2, ionised calcium, and serum lactate were all associated with post-operative length of stay.
Conclusion:
Discrete clinical and haemodynamic factors upon paediatric cardiac ICU admission after staged Yasui completion are associated with post-operative length of stay. Clinical target ranges can be developed and seem consistent with the notion that greater systemic oxygen delivery is associated with lower post-operative length of stay.
Cost estimation – this topic parallels the topic of demand estimation in many ways, in terms of examining the nature of the process involved in cost estimation. Different types of cost scenario are described, explaining the differences between short-run, long-run and learning curve situations. The implications for appropriate model specification are explained, along with the interpretation of different mathematical forms. Cost elasticities and their relationship to returns to scale are discussed. For different scenarios the nature of empirical studies is described, the method of estimation using regression analysis is explained, and the problems of estimation and the implications in terms of managerial decision making are discussed. As with other topics, case studies are important in illustrating the application of principles to real-life situations. Three case studies are presented, all involving recent data from major industries where digital applications are important: banking, airlines and electricity generation.
Indices of cumulative risk (CR) have long been used in developmental research to encode the number of risk factors a child or adolescent experiences that may impede optimal developmental outcomes. Initial contributions concentrated on indices of cumulative environmental risk; more recently, indices of cumulative genetic risk have been employed. In this article, regression analytic methods are proposed for interrogating strongly the validity of risk indices by testing optimality of compositing weights, enabling more informative modeling of effects of CR indices. Reanalyses of data from two studies are reported. One study involved 10 environmental risk factors predicting Verbal IQ in 215 four-year-old children. The second study included an index of genetic CR in a G×E interaction investigation of 281 target participants assessed at age 15 years and then again at age 31 years for observed hostility during videotaped interactions with close family relations. Principles to guide evaluation of results of statistical modeling are presented, and implications of results for research and theory are discussed. The ultimate goals of this paper are to develop stronger tests of conjectures involving CR indices and to promote methods for improving replicability of results across studies.
The aim of this study is to investigate Dutch citizens’ care attitudes by looking at care-giving norms and citizens’ welfare state orientation and to explore to what extent these attitudes can be explained by combinations of diversity characteristics. We combined two datasets (2016 and 2018, N = 5,293) containing citizens’ opinions regarding society and conducted multivariate linear and ordered probit regression analyses. An intersectional perspective was adopted to explore the influence of combinations of diversity characteristics. Results show that citizens’ care-giving norms are relatively strong, meaning they believe persons in need of care should receive help from their families or social networks. However, citizens consider the government responsible for care as well. Men, younger people, people in good health and people of non-Western origin have stronger care-giving norms than others, and younger people assign relatively more responsibility to the family than the government. Level of education and religiosity are also associated with care attitudes. Primary diversity dimensions are more related to care attitudes than secondary, circumstantial dimensions. Some of the secondary dimensions interact with primary dimensions. These insights offer policy makers, social workers and (allied) health professionals the opportunity to align with citizens’ care attitudes, as results show that people vary to a large extent in their care-giving norms and welfare state orientation.
The chapter puts the orignal Cobb–Douglas paper in the context of Douglas’s previous research and the theoretical frameworks and empirical practices employed by economists in the 1920s. Douglas’s early research with the time series version of the regression is described. During this period, Douglas linked his procedure to the marginal productivity theory of distribution, and presented his research as part of a broader effort to build a quantitative account of economic activity on the “valuable theoretical scaffolding” of neoclassical theory. Several friendly critics saw Douglas’s research program as complementary to their own neoclassical-econometric program, but judged Douglas's methods and results based on what they revealed about the characteristics of firm-level production functions. This issue was never crucial for Douglas, who considered an aggregate production function to be an important theoretical entity worth estimating. However, Douglas regarded these economists as potential allies in his effort to promote his new research technique. It was they who had first labeled the relationship that Douglas was attempting to estimate a “production function”, and after 1935 Douglas adopted this label.
This chapter provides support for my main hypotheses that more urban and food-importing autocracies should be more likely to default, whereas more rural and food-exporting democracies should be more likely to renege on their international financial obligations.Drawing on approximately 50 years of cross-national data, I demonstrate robust evidence in favor of my main theoretical expectations, which remain even after introducing an extensive battery of controls for additional country- and systemic-level alternative explanations.In addition, I show that, for the subset of countries with relevant data on subsidy costs, it is precisely the most rural-biased democracies, and most urban-biased autocracies, that are most likely to default on their debt.
Chapters 7 considers the impact of leaders’ duration in power and of the diverse modes of leadership transfers on economic growth. It is postulated that electoral competition and alternation in office – even when they fall short of genuine democracy– help African citizens improve the accountability of their leaders, at least to some extent. The risk of being removed from power generates incentives to provide public goods for incumbents who want to maximize their reelection chances. At the same time, elections help opposition parties monitor the behavior of rulers and expose wrongdoings and maladministration. We advance several specific hypotheses on the effect that leaders can have on economic progress. We test these hypotheses empirically using a time-series and cross-sectional research design that includes all the 49 countries of the sub-Saharan region between 1960 and 2018. Much of the evidence confirms our underlying argument about African development, political leaders, and the modes in which they rotate in office matter
Chapters 8 complements Chapter 7 by assessing the developmental implications of leadership changes in Africa through an extensive empirical analysis. It examines the impact of leaders’ duration in power and of the diverse modes of leadership transfers on the provision of social welfare, state consolidation and control of corruption. It is postulated that electoral competition and alternation in office– even when they fall short of genuine democracy– help African citizens improve the accountability of their leaders, at least to some extent. The risk of being removed from power generates incentives to provide public goods for incumbents who want to maximize their reelection chances. At the same time, elections help opposition parties monitor the behavior of rulers and expose wrongdoings and maladministration. We advance several specific hypotheses on the effect that leaders can have on social progress as well as on a better and less corrupt functioning of state apparatuses. We test these hypotheses empirically using a time-series and cross-sectional research design that includes all the 49 countries of the sub-Saharan region between 1960 and 2018. Much of the evidence confirms our underlying argument about African development, political leaders, and the modes in which they rotate in office matter
Thirty-one accessions of Oryza glaberrima were evaluated to study the genetic variability, correlation, path, principal component analysis (PCA) and D2 analysis. Box plots depicted high estimates of variability for days to 50% flowering and grain yield per plant in Kharif 2016, plant height, productive tillers, panicle length and 1000 seed weight in Kharif 2017. Correlation studies revealed days to 50% flowering, plant height, panicle length, number of productive tillers, spikelets per panicle having a high direct positive association with grain yield, while path analysis identified the number of productive tillers having the maximum direct positive effect on grain yield. Days to 50% flowering via spikelets per panicle, productive tillers and plant height via spikelets per panicle exhibited high positive indirect effects on grain yield per plant. PCA showed that a cumulative variance of 54.752% from yield per plant, days to 50% flowering, spikelets per panicle and panicle length, contributing almost all the variation of traits while D2 analysis identified days to 50% flowering and grain yield per plant contributing maximum to the genetic diversity. Therefore, selection of accessions with more number of productive tillers and early maturity would be most suitable for yield improvement programme. The study has revealed the utility of African rice germplasm and its potential to utilize in the genetic improvement of indica rice varieties.
The rate of antidepressant use in the United Kingdom has outpaced diagnostic increases in the prevalence of depression. Research has suggested that personal and socioeconomic risk factors may be contributing to antidepressant use. To date, few studies have addressed these possible contributions. Thus, this study aimed to assess the relative strength of personal, socioeconomic and trauma-related risk factors in predicting antidepressant use.
Methods
Data were derived from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (n=7403), a nationally representative household sample of adults residing in England in 2007. A multivariate binary logistic regression model was developed to assess the associations between personal, socioeconomic and trauma-related risk factors and current antidepressant use.
Results
The strongest predictor of current antidepressant use was meeting the criteria for an ICD-10 depressive episode [odds ratio (OR)=9.04]. Other significant predictors of antidepressant use in this analysis included English as first language (OR=3.45), female gender (OR=1.98), unemployment (OR=1.82) and childhood sexual abuse (OR=1.53).
Conclusions
Several personal, socioeconomic and trauma-related factors significantly contributed to antidepressant use in the multivariate model specified. These findings aid our understanding of the broader context of antidepressant use in the United Kingdom.