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  • 6 - Beyond the Pax Americana

  • from Part II - Theory
  • Edited by T. V. Paul, McGill University, Montréal, Anders Wivel, University of Copenhagen, Kai He, Griffith University, Queensland
  • Book:
    International Organizations and Peaceful Change in World Politics
    Published online:
    30 January 2025
    Print publication:
    06 February 2025, pp 123-150

  • Summary

    Two decades or so ago, it seemed that the Sino-American power transition would be an example of peaceful change. Today, the odds of such an outcome have dwindled. Can IOs help to ensure that any resulting changes in the international system’s distribution of power (and of prestige and status) come about peacefully? In this instance, the short answer is “no.” For peaceful change to occur, the onus is on the dominant power – the incumbent hegemon – to accept, and adjust to, the shift in relative power in the rising power’s favor. There is nothing in America’s foreign policy tradition, or political culture, that suggests that the US will accept China’s emergence as its geopolitical, economic, and technological equal – or accord Beijing status and prestige on par with America’s. Rather, the US clings to the status quo of the post-1945 international order – “the world America made” (in Robert Kagan’s words) – and is ready to go to war to preserve it. That is the fundamental reason why the Sino-American power transition likely will not be an example of peaceful change.