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At some point, it becomes almost impossible for management to deliver on accelerating expectations without faltering, just as anyone would eventually stumble on a treadmill that keeps moving faster. McKinsey & Co., Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, 2020 The typical public corporation now runs on a valuation treadmill. If its stock is traded widely in public markets, it must take care to keep pace with market expectations. Whether it be through developing transformative new products or consistently meeting quarterly financial projections, a public company must continually convince investors that it will generate profits in future years just to maintain its stock price. If investors become concerned that a company’s profitability is declining, they can drastically readjust its valuation.
Public companies now face constant pressure to meet investor expectations. A company must continually deliver strong short-term performance every quarter to maintain its stock price. This valuation treadmill creates incentives for corporations to deceive investors. Published more than twenty years after the passage of Sarbanes-Oxley, which requires all public companies to invest in measures to ensure the accuracy of their disclosures, The Valuation Treadmill shows how securities fraud became a major regulatory concern. Drawing on case studies of paradigmatic securities enforcement actions involving Xerox, Penn Central, Apple, Enron, Citigroup, and General Electric, the book argues that corporate securities fraud emerged as investors increasingly valued companies based on their future performance. Corporations now have an incentive to issue unrealistically optimistic disclosure to convince markets that their success will continue. Securities regulation must do more to protect the integrity of public companies from the pressure of the valuation treadmill.
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