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Beginning in the late 1970s, China’s economy produced the largest growth spurt in recorded history. This striking departure from the economic experience of the previous 200 years encourages onlookers to view recent economic success as a “miracle” that requires neither economic nor historical explanation. Such thinking ignores common elements that have shaped China’s long-term economic trajectory: forces propelling spurts of innovation and growth, restrictions that often impede these dynamic forces, and enduring features of China’s polity that generate tensions between centralized authoritarian power and economic growth. Neglect of these historical legacies invites misconceptions about the current boom’s origin and the economy’s likely future path. History and economics figure prominently in our analysis of both.
For the last few decades, the modern orthodoxy on the Roman economy has been a simple one: the vast majority of the population lived at or near subsistence, and that changed little over the lifetime of Roman civilization. Many parts of the Roman world witnessed dramatic population growth during the last few centuries BCE. Crucial performance indicators show dramatic aggregate and per capita increases in production and consumption from the third century BCE, or sometimes a bit later, until the Roman economy reached a spectacular peak during the first century BCE and the first century CE. Roman law is certainly part of the story of Roman economic success. Roman emperors of the first and second centuries CE repeatedly insisted on the importance of good government. The limits of the growth included long-distance trade which was interrupted in many regions, and so was manufacture of traded goods. Similarly, the sea trade to India that suffered an economic crisis was virtually abandoned.
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