While depressive symptoms are common during menopausal transition, the relationship between the two remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the longitudinal changes in depressive symptoms among middle-aged Korean women and identify those with elevated and worsening symptoms during this period.

A total of 1,178 participants who underwent comprehensive health examinations at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital in Korea were followed for a median of 10.8 years (IQR, 9.2–11.6; maximum, 12.7), including all women who reached natural menopause during follow-up, with only data prior to HRT initiation included. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), and menopausal stages were classified according to the STRAW + 10 criteria and final menstrual period (FMP). Linear mixed-effects models and group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) were applied to evaluate longitudinal changes in depressive symptoms and to identify distinct trajectories in the severity and stability of depressive symptoms.

The age-adjusted prevalence of CES-D ≥ 16 was 11.0%, 11.5%, 11.2% and 12.4%, with corresponding mean scores of 6.7, 6.6, 6.9 and 7.1 across stages. After adjusting for time-varying age and covariates, menopausal stage transitions were not significantly associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms, whether analysed as continuous or binary variables. For binary CES-D (≥16), the estimated coefficients (95% CI) were 0.10 (–0.20 to 0.41) for early transition, 0.09 (–0.21 to 0.39) for late transition and 0.26 (–0.09 to 0.61) for post-menopause. Similarly, time relative to the FMP (–11 to +9 years) showed no significant association with depressive symptoms. GBTM identified three distinct trajectories: most participants (75.5%) maintained consistently low depressive symptoms throughout the transition, whereas 5.8% showed worsening symptoms. Poor sleep quality (OR 5.83, 95% CI 3.25 to 10.45) and moderate-to-severe vasomotor symptoms (OR 2.95, 95% CI 1.30 to 6.70) were significantly associated with the worsening trajectory. Suicidal ideation was higher in this group (45.4% at baseline, increasing to 70.5% at follow-up).

Most women maintained low depressive symptoms during the menopausal transition; however, a subset experienced worsening symptoms linked to menopause-related physical symptoms. Medical visits for menopause-related symptoms may provide opportunities for screening depressive symptoms in higher-risk women, though the screening effectiveness requires further evaluation.