The trajectory of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to dementia within primary care is not well understood.

We investigated the 5-year trajectory of patients initially diagnosed with MCI, evaluated their risk of developing dementia considering age, sex, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) test scores and determined the annual conversion rate from MCI to dementia for patients assessed in a MINT (Multispecialty Interprofessional Team) memory clinic.

We conducted a longitudinal cohort study using a retrospective chart review of 751 patients assessed within a MINT memory clinic in Ontario, Canada. The conversion rate from MCI to dementia was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression examined time to dementia diagnosis and the association between baseline MoCA scores and dementia risk.

The observed 5-year conversion rate from MCI to dementia was 28.0%, though with limited follow-up data. Accounting for missing data, the estimated 5-year conversion rate was 48.8% (39.5%, 59.2%) with an average annual rate of 9.8%. Each one-point increase in MoCA score at initial visit was associated with a 10% lower rate of conversion to dementia (aHR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.85-0.96).

Findings highlight the profile of patients assessed in MINT clinics, cognitive trajectory of those diagnosed with MCI, and the importance of primary care-based memory clinics in early detection and intervention.

Systemic changes in multiple diseases may influence the onset of dementia. However, the specific temporality between exposure diseases and dementia remains uncertain.

By characterising the full spectrum of temporal disease trajectories before dementia, this study aims to yield a global picture of precursor diseases to dementia and to provide detailed instructions for risk management and primary prevention of dementia.

Using the multicentre, community-based prospective UK Biobank, we constructed disease trajectories before dementia utilising the phenome-wide association analysis, paired directional test and association quantification. Stratified disease trajectories were constructed by dementia subtypes, gender, age of diagnosis and Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) status, respectively.

Our study population comprised 434 266 participants without baseline dementia and 4638 individuals with all-cause dementia. In total, 1253 diseases were extracted as potential components of the disease trajectory before dementia. We identified three clusters of disease trajectories preceding all-cause dementia, initiated by circulatory, metabolic and respiratory diseases occurring approximately 5–15 years before dementia. Cerebral infarction or chronic renal failure following chronic ischaemic heart disease was the specific trajectory before vascular dementia. Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) ε4 non-carriers exhibited more complex trajectories compared with carriers. Lipid metabolism disorders remained in the trajectories regardless of dementia subtypes, gender, age of diagnosis and ApoE status.

This study provides a comprehensive view of the longitudinal disease trajectories before dementia and highlights the potential targets of midlife cardiometabolic dysfunction for dementia screening and prevention.