Two established staging models outline the longitudinal progression in bipolar disorder (BD) based on episode recurrence or inter-episodic functioning. However, underlying neurobiological mechanisms and corresponding biomarkers remain unexplored. This study aimed to investigate if global and (sub)cortical brain structures, along with brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD) reflect illness progression as conceptualized in these staging models, potentially identifying brain-PAD as a biomarker for BD staging.

In total, 199 subjects with bipolar-I-disorder and 226 control subjects from the Dutch Bipolar Cohort with a high-quality T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scan were analyzed. Global and (sub)cortical brain measures and brain-PAD (the difference between biological and chronological age) were estimated. Associations between individual brain measures and the stages of both staging models were explored.

A higher brain-PAD (higher biological age than chronological age) correlated with an increased likelihood of being in a higher stage of the inter-episodic functioning model, but not in the model based on number of mood episodes. However, after correcting for the confounding factors lithium-use and comorbid anxiety, the association lost significance. Global and (sub)cortical brain measures showed no significant association with the stages.

These results suggest that brain-PAD may be associated with illness progression as defined by impaired inter-episodic functioning. Nevertheless, the significance of this association changed after considering lithium-use and comorbid anxiety disorders. Further research is required to disentangle the intricate relationship between brain-PAD, illness stages, and lithium intake or anxiety disorders. This study provides a foundation for potentially using brain-PAD as a biomarker for illness progression.

Neuroimaging- and machine-learning-based brain-age prediction of schizophrenia is well established. However, the diagnostic significance and the effect of early medication on first-episode schizophrenia remains unclear.

To explore whether predicted brain age can be used as a biomarker for schizophrenia diagnosis, and the relationship between clinical characteristics and brain-predicted age difference (PAD), and the effects of early medication on predicted brain age.

The predicted model was built on 523 diffusion tensor imaging magnetic resonance imaging scans from healthy controls. First, the brain-PAD of 60 patients with first-episode schizophrenia, 60 healthy controls and 21 follow-up patients from the principal data-set and 40 pairs of individuals in the replication data-set were calculated. Next, the brain-PAD between groups were compared and the correlations between brain-PAD and clinical measurements were analysed.

The patients showed a significant increase in brain-PAD compared with healthy controls. After early medication, the brain-PAD of patients decreased significantly compared with baseline (P < 0.001). The fractional anisotropy value of 31/33 white matter tract features, which related to the brain-PAD scores, had significantly statistical differences before and after measurements (P < 0.05, false discovery rate corrected). Correlation analysis showed that the age gap was negatively associated with the positive score on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale in the principal data-set (r = −0.326, P = 0.014).

The brain age of patients with first-episode schizophrenia may be older than their chronological age. Early medication holds promise for improving the patient's brain ageing. Neuroimaging-based brain-age prediction can provide novel insights into the understanding of schizophrenia.