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This chapter goes beyond the description of individual events by covering extremes caused by a combination of multiple events. Two main types of interactions are covered: domino effects and compound events. Domino effects, which represent one-way chains of events, are quantified using Markov theory and graph theory. Compound events, which include complex feedback loops in the complex Earth system, are modelled with system dynamics (as in Chapter 4). Two such systems are provided, the ESCIMO climate model and the World2 model of world dynamics. The impact of global warming, pollution, and resource depletion on catastrophes is investigated, as far as ecosystem and societal collapse. The types of catastrophes considered in this chapter are as follows: storm clustering, earthquake clustering (with accelerated fatigue of structures), domino effects at refineries (explosions, fires, toxic spills), cascading failures in physical networks (more precisely blackouts in a power grid), rainforest dieback, lake eutrophication, and hypothetical human population collapse.
Alcohol can increase pleasurable feelings and facilitate social interactions. It may decrease anxiety, although unreliably. With alcohol-produced “myopia,” immediate events and surroundings become more salient than remote or distant concerns. Disinhibition of behavior is often part of the rewarding effect of low to moderate amounts of alcohol. However, larger amounts and greater degrees of disinhibition can lead to dangerous behavior, even in individuals who do not have a diagnosable alcohol use disorder. High levels of intoxication impair sound judgment, sometimes promoting risky sexual activity or sexual assault. Alcohol impairs coordination, concentration, and vigilance, causing many traffic accidents. Large doses of alcohol can suppress respiration and cause death. A life-threatening withdrawal syndrome can occur when prolonged heavy drinking stops. Alcohol can produce depressive states, and suicide risk increases, especially for individuals suffering from pre-existing clinical depression. Because about two-thirds of the adult population in the United States consume alcohol, the small percentage with an alcohol use disorder includes an estimated 14.5 million individuals.3
On 14 August 2003, New York City and a large portion of the northeastern United States experienced the largest blackout in the history of the country. An analysis of such a widespread disaster on emergency medical service (EMS) operations may assist in planning for and managing such disasters in the future.
Methods:
A retrospective review of all EMS activity within New York City's 9-1-1 emergency telephone system during the 29 hours during which all or parts of the city were without power (16:11 hours (h) on 14 August 2003 until 21:03 h on 15 August 2003) was performed. Control periods were established utilizing identical time periods during the five weeks preceding the blackout.
Results:
Significant increases were identified in the overall EMS demand (7,844 incidents vs. 3,860 incidents; p<0.001) as well as in 20 of the 62 calltypes of the system, including ca rd i ac arrests (119 vs.76, p= 0.043).Significant decreases were found only among calls related to psychological emergencies (114 vs. 221; p= 0.006) and drugor alcohol-related emergencies (78 vs. 146; p = 0.009). Though median response times increased by only 60 seconds, median call-processing times within the 9-1-1 emergency telephone system EMS dispatch center of the city increased from 1.1 to 5.5 minutes.
Conclusions:
The citywide blackout resulted in dramatic changes in the demands upon the EMS system of New York City, the types of patients for whom EMS providers were assigned to provide care, and the dispositions for those assignments. During this time of increased, system-wide demand, the use of cross-trained firefighter and first-responder engine companies resulted in improved response times to cardiac arrest patients. Finally, the ability of the EMS dispatch center to process the increased requests for EMS assistance proved to be the rate-limiting step in responding to these emergencies.These findings will prove useful in planning for future blackouts or any disaster that may broadly impact the infrastructure of a city.
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