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This chapter lays the foundation for the study of the role of elections in non-democratic regimes. Using VDem data, the analysis in the chapter shows that while stability is the most common response to electoral autocracies, elections can produce change in a liberalizing or autocratizing direction. This introductory chapter describes this process of voter mobilization in Russia in 2011–2012 and in terms of the existing literature on autocratic stability. It creates the foundational framework for the empirical study that brings together important studies of autocratic elections, hybrid regime stability, and post-election protest. This foundation supports the central argument of the book: when controlled elections reveal information about the lack of regime accountability, voters protest at the ballot box and on the streets. Societal mobilization provides opportunities for opposition growth and forces regimes to respond to maintain stability. The final section of the chapter outlines the plan of the book and summarizes the arguments in each chapter.
In a path-breaking study of Russian elections, Regina Smyth reveals how much electoral competition matters to the Putin regime and how competition leaves Russia more vulnerable to opposition challenges than is perceived in the West. Using original data and analysis, Smyth demonstrates how even weak political opposition can force autocratic incumbents to rethink strategy and find compromises in order to win elections. Smyth challenges conventional notions about Putin's regime, highlighting the vast resources the Kremlin expends to maintain a permanent campaign to construct regime-friendly majorities. These tactics include disinformation as well as symbolic politics, social benefits, repression, and falsification. This book reveals the stresses and challenges of maintaining an electoral authoritarian regime and provides a roadmap to understand how seemingly stable authoritarian systems can fall quickly to popular challenges even when the opposition is weak. A must-read for understanding Russia's future and the role of elections in contemporary autocratic regimes.
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