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This chapter starts by reviewing important concepts from probability theory and stochastic processes. Subsequent chapters on probabilistic input and structural uncertainty make heavy use of random vectors and vector-valued stochastic process, so the reader should be familiar with the material included on these concepts. Next, the chapter provides a review of set-theoretic notions. The material on sets in Euclidean space included in this part is key to understanding the set-theoretic approach to input uncertainty modeling. The chapter concludes with a review of several fundamental concepts from the theory of discrete- and continuous-time linear dynamical systems.
This chapter studies continuous-time dynamical systems described by a continuous-time state-space model whose input is subject to probabilistic uncertainty. The first part of the chapter is devoted to the analysis of linear systems and provides techniques for computing the first and second moments of the state vector when the evolution of the input vector is governed by a "white noise" process with known mean and covariance functions. Then, by additionally imposing this white noise process to be Gaussian, we provide a partial differential equation whose solution yields the pdf of the state vector. The second part of the chapter extends these techniques to the analysis of nonlinear systems, with a special focus on the case when the white noise governing the evolution of the input vector is Gaussian. The third part of the chapter illustrates the application of the techniques developed to the analysis of inertia-less AC microgrids when the measurements utilized by the frequency control system are corrupted by additive disturbances.
In this paper we study the Assouad dimension of graphs of certain Lévy processes and functions defined by stochastic integrals. We do this by introducing a convenient condition which guarantees a graph to have full Assouad dimension and then show that graphs of our studied processes satisfy this condition.
We consider the stochastic Allen-Cahn equation perturbed by smooth additive Gaussian noise in a spatial domain with smooth boundary in dimension d ≤ 3, and study the semidiscretization in time of the equation by an implicit Euler method. We show that the method converges pathwise with a rate O(Δtγ) for any γ < ½. We also prove that the scheme converges uniformly in the strong Lp-sense but with no rate given.
Durbin (1992) derived a convergent series for the density of the first passage time of a Weiner process to a curved boundary. We show that the successive partial sums of this series can be expressed as the iterates of the standard substitution method for solving an integral equation. The calculation is thus simpler than it first appears. We also show that, under a certain condition, the series converges uniformly. This strengthens Durbin's result of pointwise convergence. Finally, we present a modified procedure, based on scaling, which sometimes works better. These approaches cover some cases that Durbin did not.
We propose an approximation for the inverse first passage time problem. It is similar in spirit and method to the tangent approximation for the original first passage time problem. We provide evidence that the technique is quite accurate in many cases. We also identify some cases where the approximation performs poorly.
In this paper, we extend the results of Orey and Taylor [S. Orey and S.J. Taylor, How often on a Brownian path does the law of the iterated logarithm fail? Proc. London Math. Soc.28 (1974) 174–192]relative to random fractals generated by oscillations of Wiener processes to a multivariate framework. We consider a setup where Gaussian processes are indexed by classes of functions.
We consider a finite dam under the policy, where the input of water is formed by a Wiener process subject to random jumps arriving according to a Poisson process. The long-run average cost per unit time is obtained after assigning costs to the changes of release rate, a reward to each unit of output, and a penalty that is a function of the level of water in the reservoir.
We consider a risk model with two independent classes of insurance risks. We assume that the two independent claim counting processes are, respectively, Poisson and Sparre Andersen processes with generalized Erlang(2) claim inter-arrival times. The Laplace transform of the non-ruin probability is derived from a system of integro-differential equations. Explicit results can be obtained when the initial reserve is zero and the claim severity distributions of both classes belong to the Kn family of distributions. A relation between the ruin probability and the distribution of the supremum before ruin is identified. Finally, the Laplace transform of the non-ruin probability of a perturbed Sparre Andersen risk model with generalized Erlang(2) claim inter-arrival times is derived when the compound Poisson process converges weakly to a Wiener process.
We give explicit upper bounds for convergence rates when approximating both one- and two-sided general curvilinear boundary crossing probabilities for the Wiener process by similar probabilities for close boundaries of simpler form, for which computation of the boundary crossing probabilities is feasible. In particular, we partially generalize and improve results obtained by Pötzelberger and Wang in the case when the approximating boundaries are piecewise linear. Applications to barrier option pricing are also discussed.
In this paper, we consider the compound Poisson process that is perturbed by diffusion (CPD). We derive formulae for the Laplace transform, expectation and variance of total duration of negative surplus for the CPD and also present some examples of the CPD with an exponential individual claim amount distribution and a mixture exponential individual claim amount distribution.
Wang and Pötzelberger (1997) derived an explicit formula for the probability that a Brownian motion crosses a one-sided piecewise linear boundary and used this formula to approximate the boundary crossing probability for general nonlinear boundaries. The present paper gives a sharper asymptotic upper bound of the approximation error for the formula, and generalizes the results to two-sided boundaries. Numerical computations are easily carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method. A rule is proposed for choosing optimal nodes for the approximating piecewise linear boundaries, so that the corresponding approximation errors of boundary crossing probabilities converge to zero at a rate of O(1/n2).
A simple asymmetric random walk on the integers is stopped when its range is of a given length. When and where is it stopped? Analogous questions can be stated for a Brownian motion. Such problems are studied using results for the classical ruin problem, yielding results for the cover time and the range, both for asymmetric random walks and Brownian motion with drift.
The distribution of the final size, K, in a general SIR epidemic model is considered in a situation when the critical parameter λ is close to 1. It is shown that with a ‘critical scaling’ λ ≈ 1 + a / n1/3, m ≈ bn1/3, where n is the initial number of susceptibles and m is the initial number of infected, then K / n2/3 has a limit distribution when n → ∞. It can be described as that of T, the first passage time of a Wiener process to a parabolic barrier b + at − t2/2. The proof is based on a diffusion approximation. Moreover, it is shown that the distribution of T can be expressed analytically in terms of Airy functions using the spectral representation connected with Airy's differential equation.
An explicit formula for the probability that a Brownian motion crosses a piecewise linear boundary in a finite time interval is derived. This formula is used to obtain approximations to the crossing probabilities for general boundaries which are the uniform limits of piecewise linear functions. The rules for assessing the accuracies of the approximations are given. The calculations of the crossing probabilities are easily carried out through Monte Carlo methods. Some numerical examples are provided.
We solve the Fokker-Planck equation for the Wiener process with drift in the presence of elastic boundaries and a fixed start point. An explicit expression is obtained for the first passage density. The cases with pure absorbing and/or reflecting barriers arise for a special choice of a parameter constellation. These special cases are compared with results in Darling and Siegert [5] and Sweet and Hardin [15].
Two approaches used to model interest randomness are presented. They are the modeling of the force of interest accumulation function and the modeling of the force of interest. The expected value, standard deviation and coefficient of skewness of the present value of annuities-immediate are presented as illustrations. The implicit behavior of the force of interest under the two approaches is investigated by looking at a particular conditional expectation of the force of interest accumulation function.
Consider the GI/G/1 queueing system with traffic intensity 1 and let wk and lk denote the actual waiting time of the kth unit and the number of units present in the system at the kth arrival including the kth unit, respectively. Furthermore let τ denote the number of units served during the first busy period and μ the intensity of the service. It is shown that as k →∞, where a is some known constant, , , and are independent, is a Brownian meander and is a Wiener process. A similar result is also given for the difference of virtual waiting time and queue length processes. These results are also extended to a wider class of queueing systems than GI/G/1 queues and a scheme of series of queues.
In this paper we first prove an arrangement-decreasing property of partial sums of independent random variables when they are partially ordered through the likelihood ratio ordering. We then apply a similar argument to obtain a stochastic ordering of random processes via a comparison of their parameter functions, with special applications to Poisson and Wiener processes. Finally, in Section 4 we present some applications in reliability theory, queueing, and first-passage problems.