Relying upon an original (country-sector-year) measure of robotic capital ($RK$), we investigate the degree of complementarity/substitutability between robots and workers at different skill levels. We employ nonparametric methods to estimate elasticity of substitution patterns between $RK$ and skilled/unskilled labor over the period 1995–2009. We show that: i) on average, $RK$ exhibits less substitutability with skilled workers compared to unskilled workers, indicating a phenomenon of “RK-Skill complementarity”. This pattern holds in a global context characterized by significant heterogeneity; ii) the dynamic of “RK-Skill complementarity” has increased since the early 2000s; iii) the observed strengthening is more prominent in OECD countries, as opposed to non-OECD countries, and in the Manufacturing sector, compared to non-Manufacturing industries.

Ensuring energy access for rural households is crucial for global sustainable development. Technologies like liquefied petroleum gas, biogas, and efficient cookers are touted as solutions, yet their adoption remains limited despite their potential health, economic, and environmental benefits. We conducted a meta-analysis of 50 studies in developing countries, integrating contextual factors to explore gender and other determinants impacting rural energy transition. Our findings underscore socioeconomic status, social capital, environmental concerns, and gender dynamics as pivotal factors. Notably, women's involvement boosts adoption rates by 7.90 per cent, yet cultural barriers often sideline them from these processes. Thus, our recommendations stress addressing women's roles as energy technology users to foster inclusive energy transitions.

This paper explores the (de-)routinisation of employment structure in developing countries, through the case of Morocco. We investigate employment (de-)routinisation from an often-overlooked perspective, aiming to elucidate the interplay between the dynamics of occupational employment composition by the level of routine tasks intensity and two structural aspects: premature deindustrialisation and the prevalence of informal labour.

Our findings, based on tertile analysis and regressions, do not fully support the hypothesis of employment structure de-routinisation. At the same time, we could not identify a clear process of routinisation similar to that observed in developing countries undergoing the first stage of the traditional structural transformation process. Rather, we identified an inverted U-shaped pattern in the dynamics of occupational employment, indicative of a rise in intermediate routine-intensive occupations.

We emphasise two key factors, with opposite effects that have contributed to this atypical pattern: The first aspect is premature deindustrialisation, which according to our shift-share decomposition, has adversely affected highly routine-intensive jobs, contrasting with the routinisation trend observed in countries that have experienced a more traditional process of structural transformation. The influence of premature deindustrialisation in terms of de-routinisation is somewhat mitigated by the increasing prevalence of occupations demanding intermediate routine tasks, particularly within the services and construction sector. Regarding the second structural aspect – the prevalence of informal labour – our three-way interaction model indicates a lower susceptibility of informal jobs to de-routinisation compared to their formal counterparts within the same industry. Consequently, the prevalence of informal employment has slowed down the process of de-routinisation of employment structure.

Iron toxicity is one of the constraints limiting rice production in Africa. This study used a randomized controlled trial to assess the impact of an iron toxicity-tolerant variety, named ARICA 6, on different outcomes and investment in modern inputs by smallholder farmers. Two rounds of data were collected from 520 rice-farming households in Guinea. Results showed that the use of ARICA 6 increased rice yield by 330 kg ha−1 and net income by US$ 120 ha−1. However, adoption of improved variety may not be enough to crowd in investment in modern inputs because farmers face other constraints.

Motivated by distributional concerns raised by recent breakthroughs in AI and robotics, we ask how workers would prefer to manage an episode of automation in a task-based model, which distinguishes between automation and traditional technical progress. We show that under majority voting with the option to implement a “partial” UBI (as transfers to workers) it is optimal to tax capital at a higher rate than labor in the long run to fund the partial UBI. We show that, unlike traditional technical progress, automation always lowers the labor share in the long run, justifying distributional concerns. A quantitative analysis of an episode of automation for the US economy shows that it is optimal from the workers’ perspective to lower capital taxes and transfers over the transition. Nevertheless, this policy increases worker welfare by only 0.7% in consumption-equivalent terms, compared with a 21.6% welfare gain to entrepreneurs, because the welfare gains to workers from lower capital taxes are second-order, while the gains to entrepreneurs are first-order.

Offshore wind farms (OWF) are now in operation and increasingly under construction as scalable, sustainable energy sources. In fact OWFs are currently the cheapest form of new energy projects in Europe. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for OWF has fallen drastically due to decades of innovation facilitated by both taxpayer and private sector funding. This emerging industry is experiencing massive worldwide growth with the potential to accelerate the decarbonization of regional and the global economy as well as bring a reliable source of green hydrogen into commercial use, all with minimal disruption to ecosystems and impacts on biodiversity. This paper provides a historical perspective of wind energy harnessing and shows that wind turbines are the oldest, largest and one of the smartest machines. We also highlight the potential of offshore wind energy to provide new solutions to (a) meet clean energy demand for a growing world population, (b) improve energy security of nations through other downstream technologies such as production and storage of dispatchable fuel (such as green hydrogen battery storage) and (c) through supply complementarity improve resilience of nuclear power plants in high-seismic-activity areas. Offshore wind industry can also become a gold standard for future industries, and the paper provides insights into the new green economics and jobs and factories for the future. We show that environment-friendly regulation is driving innovations even further to enhance sustainability of OWF. Examples include material recycling, landfill ban on blade disposal and ecofriendly low-noise offshore construction to protect biodiversity.

Even at long time horizons, modern outcomes are in some sense bounded by history. Culture shapes how people interact and as it propagates across generations, groups with more common ancestors face less frictions to cooperation. This, in turn, affects institutional and technological diffusion, implying a society's history plays a crucial role in the causes of sustained long-run economic growth. To test this, we follow other studies by proxying for historical effects with genetic relatedness, which yields a temporal proportionality of shared common ancestry. Measuring cultural traits are more challenging. We develop a new systematic measure through network analysis of Wikipedia. Connectivity statistics over the encyclopaedia's hyperlink-directed network captures unique features of cultural relatedness. Further, as we index pages, we can coarsen the network into specific topics. The results show how history correlates broadly over a range of cultural factors. Differences across the coarsened networks demonstrate not simply that history matters, but where it matters less.

Dairy farming in Europe faces profound environmental, social, and economic sustainability challenges, which are of significant policy interest. These challenges support the need for a transition toward the uptake of more sustainable dairy farming practices. This paper examines the effects of an advisory instrument “balanced sustainability information” on farmers’ preferences for more grass-based feeding systems using a between-subjects design and a discrete choice experiment among a sample of Swedish dairy farmers. Conceptually, we develop a state-dependent utility framework with Bayesian updating to motivate the impact pathway. Our results demonstrate that on average, balanced sustainability information has negligible effects on farmers’ feed choices, which could be a consequence of opposing responses to the information, among others. Considering farmer heterogeneity based on their identities and prior knowledge, we find support for some evidence of treatment effects. Our findings highlight important and policy-relevant critical reflections about overoptimistic expectations of information provision as an instrument to nudge behavioral change toward more sustainable farming practices.

The rapid development of the digital economy has highlighted the crucial role of data in economic growth. This study investigates the impact of two types of innovation on long-term growth by incorporating data into a model of creative destruction and knowledge accumulation. Unlike traditional factors, data exhibit nonrivalry between the two research and development (R&D) sectors, thereby influencing the growth rate of economic outputs simultaneously without interference. Our findings reveal the existence of a balanced growth path (BGP) in both the decentralized economy and the social planner’s economy. In horizontal innovation, data can be transformed into digital knowledge to promote the economic growth [Cong et al. (2021)]. In addition to horizontal innovation, the utilization of data in vertical innovation also enhances the success rate of innovation, with a gradual decrease in per capita data usage on the BGP. Moreover, as agents accumulate human capital, the economy achieves higher output levels, effectively addressing consumer privacy concerns. However, along the transitional path, insufficient data provision by both R&D sectors leads to lower economic growth rates or more intense economic fluctuations, necessitating policy interventions.

This paper examines the impact of trade-related technology diffusion from G7 countries to Latin America and East Asia on total factor productivity controlling for education, governance, and distance. We build on the trade and distance-focused strands of the technology diffusion literature and find that (i) total factor productivity (TFP) increases with education, trade, and governance (ETG) and declines with distance to the G7 countries; (ii) increasing Latin America's ETG to East Asia's level would double TFP, accounting for about 75% of the TFP gap between the two country groups; and (iii) South America's greater remoteness relative to Mexico's from the US and Canada significantly reduces its TFP and similarly for Singapore's greater remoteness from Japan relative to Hong Kong.

For path-breaking insights on how prices can guide the efficient allocation of resources and how innovation and investment can spur economic growth, Adam Smith is justly renowned. He was, however, well aware of problems posed by market dominance—specifically in banking and, more generally, wherever getting to the scale that delivers increasing returns leads to monopolistic behaviour. For the historical record, we draw on the recent wide-ranging survey by Acemoglu and Johnson on how the benefits of innovation have been spread across society since the Industrial Revolution. We also consider these issues in the context of geo-political competition.

U.S. soybean farmers are currently grappling with dicamba herbicide drift. Using a network diffusion framework that accommodates key features of soybean farmer networks, we estimate the damages incurred from dicamba drift across different regions. Under our baseline assumptions, we estimate an average yield loss of 3% and predict sizable levels of forced switching to dicamba-resistant seed in response to drift. The relative importance of drift on damage and seed choice holds across a range of economic and network assumptions. In the absence of policy, this damage may cause regional adoption rates of dicamba-resistant soybean seed to increase.

While technological progress played a central role in the British Industrial Revolution, statistical evidence on how inventors and entrepreneurs engaged in the process of technological innovation has typically received minor attention. In this paper I use quantitative methods to show that counties with a relatively high number of informal networks −in the form of Freemasonry, friendly societies, libraries, and booksellers− experienced more innovation as measured by new patents and exhibits at the 1851 Crystal Palace World’s Fair. Qualitative evidence and propensity score matching suggest that the mechanisms highlighted here were an important part of British technological leadership. Economic factors cannot account for these patterns.

Does technological change fuel political disruption? Drawing on fine-grained labor market data from Germany, this paper examines how technological change affects regional electorates. We first show that the well-known decline in manufacturing and routine jobs in regions with higher robot adoption or investment in information and communication technology (ICT) was more than compensated by parallel employment growth in the service sector and cognitive non-routine occupations. This change in the regional composition of the workforce has important political implications: Workers trained for these new sectors typically hold progressive political values and support progressive pro-system parties. Overall, this composition effect dominates the politically perilous direct effect of automation-induced substitution. As a result, technology-adopting regions are unlikely to turn into populist-authoritarian strongholds.

This paper examines the effect of frontier academic research on technological development and the way institutional quality influences this impact. Using a dataset that covers 18 OECD countries over the 2003–2017 period, we find that frontier academic research exerts an important influence on total factor productivity. First, frontier academic research induces technological change by directly enhancing production processes and management methods. Second, frontier academic research stimulates industrial innovations, which in turn improves productivity. Regarding the moderating effect of institutional variables on these relationships, we find that positive moderation only exists for some, not all, of the institutional variables. In that case, a higher level of these variables is found to strengthen the way countries reap benefits from frontier academic research and industrial innovation. However, the moderation of institutions is much less clear with the process that turns frontier academic research into industrial innovations.

Digital platform businesses primarily utilise on-call contingent workers, using their own tools and equipment, to perform the productive work associated with the supplied service. The expansion of this business model has led some to proclaim that traditional ‘jobs’ will come to an end. Some welcome this development, others fear its consequences for the stability and quality of work – but most see it as driven primarily by technology, and therefore largely ‘inevitable’. This article provides historical and theoretical perspective on the expansion of digitally mediated work, to better understand the range of forces (technological, economic and socio-political) at work. It shows that the major features of platform work were all visible in earlier periods of capitalism, but they became less prominent with the rise of the ‘standard employment relationship’ in the 20th century. The rise and fall of the standard employment relationship is described with reference to the changing context for the labour extraction effort of private employers. A better understanding of the complete range of forces driving changes in work organisation, and a rejection of the assumption that they are technologically determined and hence inevitable, can inform regulatory and political responses to the rise of platform work.

Investigations into new technologies, employment and working conditions are timeless and consequently have occupied research, public policy, and popular fiction for centuries. However, in addition to the uncertainty created by the introduction of new technologies, the current coronavirus pandemic, with its associated impact on health and the economy, has led to increased volatility across the globe. The global medical crisis arising from the worldwide spread of COVID-19 is predicted to lead to a global economic crisis and subsequent deep depression. The resultant economic, social and political repercussions are likely to be felt for years or even decades to come, equalling the great depression of the last century. Consequently, it is difficult to make long-term accurate predictions about the impact of new technologies on industry, society, and labour. In this context, the aim of this introductory article to the themed volume is to consider the potential challenges and opportunities associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies and potential impacts on work and workplaces. This introductory article comprises an international collection of research that examines the impact of technological change on employment and working conditions with consideration given to the additional impacts of the COVID-19 crisis.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic erupted onto the world stage, a new narrative was apparently beginning to emerge about the impact of i4.0 and new technologies in general, and three-dimensional printing in particular, on the future of work and employment. This was to have particular geographical implications for the manufacturing sector in particular. Proponents of i4.0 also suggested that this process, particularly in manufacturing, would promote the re-emergence of patterns of clustering. Developments in advanced manufacturing, particularly three-dimensional printing, would accelerate and reinforce these tendencies. This article looks at the role that three-dimensional printing is supposed to play in the new world, and in particular, critically evaluates its role in reinforcing the trend towards deglobalisation on the one hand, and, on the other, new clusters of manufacturing industry.

We study the effect of proximity to other wineries on the formation of new wineries and how this effect depends on winemaking history in a location. Clustering is common in the wine industry, but it also depends on other factors, such as proximity to vineyards and high-reputation wineries. Using panel data with annual observations from 1994 to 2014 on 598 zip codes within Washington State, we estimate empirical models that control for proximity to wineries, proximity to vines, proximity to income, and the presence of star wineries. We find that the elasticity of the number of wineries with respect to proximity to wineries outside the zip code hinges on the length of local winemaking history. For locations with 11 or more winery years prior to our sample, the elasticity is at least 0.44. The presence of elite wineries is also found to have an effect, with about 0.5 additional wineries per year starting in a zip code per star winery. The effect of history suggests that policies to seed winery start-ups will help cluster formation, but only with a substantial critical mass of winemaking activity.

We examine the impact of the rapidly expanding mobile banking service “mobile money” on rural households’ decision to adopt modern agricultural inputs and its resultant effect on agricultural income using plot, household, and community-level panel data from rural Uganda. The main findings indicate that mobile money adoption increases per capita farm income by 13%. Pathway analyses show that mobile money adoption increases the likelihood of using chemical fertilizer on maize plots by 11 percentage points. Mobile money adoption increases the likelihood of high-yielding maize seeds adoption on maize plots by 8.2 percentage points. In the Ugandan context of rapid decline in soil fertility and very low adoption of fertilizer and modern seeds, mobile money provides an avenue to finance agricultural intensification.