This article explores a new approach to anticipate the social impacts of disruptive products, using autonomous vehicles (AVs) as a case study. It highlights the limitations of current methods in predicting the social effects of new products and proposes that futures studies and strategic foresight can provide better techniques. The main hypothesis is that experts in social sciences can anticipate long-term social impacts by considering contextualized future product usages. The authors propose a new model called Representation–Usage–Impact (RUI), which combines expert knowledge from sociology and other fields. The article presents a detailed structure for the model and describes how experts can contribute their knowledge. Sessions were organized with experts to link AV usages with potential social impacts. The results demonstrate that social science experts can identify a wide range of potential long-term social impacts. The article suggests that the RUI model should be integrated and tested into design and decision-making tools to enhance the understanding of product impacts in practical contexts.

Social impact has been widely discussed by the engineering community, but studies show that there is currently little systematic consideration of the social impact of products in both academia and in industry beyond social impacts on health and safety. While Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is useful for evaluating health and safety risks, new developments are needed to create an FMEA-style evaluation that can be applied to a wide range of social impacts for engineered products. The authors describe necessary modifications to traditional FMEA that transform it into a tool for social impact analysis. The modification of FMEA involves the introduction of positive and negative impacts, the inclusion of discrete and continuous impacts, the consideration of various stakeholder types, and the inclusion of uncertainty in place of detectability. This modified FMEA is referred to in this paper as Social Impact Effects Analysis (SIEA). The paper describes how SIEA is performed and articulates the potential benefits of SIEA.

Sustainability evaluations are increasingly relevant in the design of products. Within sustainability-related frameworks, circular economy (CE) has gained attention in the last few years, and this has vastly affected design, leading, for example, to design for circularity. This article deals with the wide range of product-level CE assessment tools, out of which some are applied to a case study from the building sector, namely a tiny house made with hemp bricks. Attention was specifically paid to those methods through which a single circularity indicator could be extrapolated. Overall, the objective of this work is to study the convergence of existing CE assessment methods in providing consistent circularity performances. The results show similarities in the overall circularity scores despite differences in the variables used to achieve that final score. Thus, despite the lack of standard methods, the results suggest that many of these tools are sufficiently interchangeable, also in consideration of consistent indications to improve the circularity of the tiny house. This means that consistent inputs are provided to anyone willing to redesign the tiny house with the objective of making it more circular irrespective of the assessment tool used.

The development of the precautionary principle by the EU Courts has often been interpreted by scholars as inconsistent with another trend in EU risk regulation: one that is evidence-based and relies on impact assessment. This article argues that the two trends – precaution and regulatory impact assessment – are not mutually exclusive. Together they may, in fact, act as a procedural safeguard against discretionary decisions that have an impact on fundamental rights, especially under conditions of epistemic uncertainty. The article illustrates this claim by looking at the decisions to close schools in Ireland during the pandemic.

This paper explores the possibility of developing a framework to assess the quality of Impact Assessments (IAs) by examining the common elements found in the existent academic literature around this concept, the stocktaking exercises carried out by the European institutions and the opinions of the Regulatory Scrutiny Board. At this intersection, we find that diversity in the interpretation and application of the guidelines is not only acceptable but also necessary in tailoring IAs to the needs they represent. Our findings are relevant because a universal framework that avoids focusing solely on assessing quality not only will provide much-needed coherence in this field but will also raise awareness about the normality of variability in the application of any European Union guidelines, thus reflecting the inherent nature of the IAs.

Innovative products can be highly prospective and apt to disrupt usages profoundly. They can lead to multiple long-term social impacts influencing people's way of life and behaviour. So it is necessary to anticipate them without delay. Due to high uncertainty, designers may face the problem that conventional user-centred methods, which assess design performances from today's users, are not adapted. We think sociologists can help characterise the likely social impacts of future products. So we propose an original framework called the Representation-Usage-Impact (RUI) method to stimulate sociologists' projection and capture relevant knowledge about probable social impacts. The method includes a database structure encoding the knowledge of sociologists for further use in the design process. Its goal is to help designers avoid making choices today that may be regretted in decades. We illustrate the method and its process with the design of autonomous vehicle scenarios, as it will likely bring many new usages in the future. As the method is still under construction, we present an intermediate validation step involving sociologists. The first results suggest that the method might be a safeguard for the design of disruptive products.

Development agencies and animal welfare charities try to improve the health and welfare of livestock in the developing world by educating owners and providing healthcare. The impact assessment of these projects relies mainly upon input-related parameters (eg number of animals treated or educational lectures delivered). The aim of this study was to investigate whether animal-based parameters, such as scores for skin lesions, body condition and lameness, could be used to assess the impact of interventions by development agencies on working donkeys. A general checklist for integument assessment of livestock, developed and then tested on two British farms, was redefined for assessment of equine animals in West Kenya. In total, 346 donkeys were assessed over four days with a mobile clinic of the Kenyan Society for the Protection and Care of Animals, using 25 animal-based parameters. The checklist was easy to use: the parameters could be scored using visual assessment or palpation, and the procedure was completed in approximately 5 min per animal. The method was found to be acceptable for owners and animal health technicians, and no special equipment was required. Significant observations included a reduced frequency of leg lesions when head-tethering (as opposed to leg-tethering) was used, and a reduced frequency of foot lesions in regions previously visited by the charity. This animal-based method proved that the charity had made a positive impact on donkey welfare through owner education.

The paper presents the method and findings of a Delphi expert survey to assess the impact of UK government farm animal welfare policy, farm assurance schemes and major food retailer specifications on the welfare of animals on farms. Two case-study livestock production systems are considered, dairy and cage egg production. The method identifies how well the various standards perform in terms of their effects on a number of key farm animal welfare variables, and provides estimates of the impact of the three types of standard on the welfare of animals on farms, taking account of producer compliance. The study highlights that there remains considerable scope for government policy, together with farm assurance schemes, to improve the welfare of farm animals by introducing standards that address key factors affecting animal welfare and by increasing compliance of livestock producers. There is a need for more comprehensive, regular and random surveys of on-farm welfare to monitor compliance with welfare standards (legislation and welfare codes) and the welfare of farm animals over time, and a need to collect farm data on the costs of compliance with standards.

New production from public and exclusive varieties released by the small grains breeding program at Virginia Tech generated cumulative discounted benefits of $41 million from 2000 to 2018. Fitted yields from field trials were combined with acreage estimates to generate weighted average yields based on adoption of new varieties. Benefits were estimated as the value of additional production from the release and adoption of improved varieties. Public varieties were responsible for most program benefits. The program was found to have a significant impact in Virginia and out-of-state, with much of these benefits due to public-private collaboration.

The public health measures implemented to control coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may influence also other infectious diseases. Using national laboratory surveillance data, we assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human salmonellosis in the Netherlands until March 2021. Salmonellosis incidence decreased significantly after March 2020: in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2020, and in the first quarter of 2021, the incidence decreased by 55%, 57%, 47% and 37%, respectively, compared to the same quarters of 2016–2019. The decrease was strongest among travel-related cases (94%, 84%, 79% and 93% in the aforementioned quarters, respectively). Other significant changes were: increased proportion of cases among older adults and increased proportion of invasive infections, decreased proportion of trimethoprim resistance and increased proportion of serovar Typhimurium monophasic variant vs. Enteritidis. This led to decreased contributions of laying hens and increased contributions of pigs and cattle as sources of human infections. The observed changes probably reflect a combination of reduced exposure to Salmonella due to restrictions on international travels and gatherings, closure of dine-in restaurants, catering and hospitality sectors at large and changes in healthcare-seeking and diagnostic behaviours.

This is a study of three authoritative instruments that promote a common idea: economic activities and development should be conducted with respect for human rights. The World Bank Framework, the International Financial Corporation Performance Standards and the UN Guiding Principles on business and human rights are examined to get clarity on how human rights risk management differs from more conventional management approaches. The focus here is on prevention of human rights impacts. Do the three instruments employ approaches adequate for handling human rights risks? To understand prevention, one needs to reflect on what makes human rights a particular type of impact and account for the regulatory context of protecting human rights transnationally. The analysis identifies four ‘offsets’ through which economic decision-makers can distort their human rights performance and place causal observers at a disadvantage. Prevention becomes an issue of how to relate to ‘residual impacts’ on human rights. This article finds that the ‘hierarchy or mitigation’ and even ‘human rights due diligence’ under illuminate the challenge. The proposal here is to add ‘reduction at source’ as a parameter of human rights risk management. The sources for this analysis are the three instruments, and the practice of implementing organizations, particularly IFC projects, CAO cases, impact assessments, and CSR reports. In conclusion, the potential for cross-fertilization among instruments is genuine. Increased clarity on prevention of human rights impacts should assist economic decision-makers in their risk management task and casual observers in assessing their performance.

Quasi-experimental techniques were developed to provide decision-making tools for documenting the impacts of developmental highways in rural areas. Regression discontinuity analysis (RDA) with limited observations was used to compare economic changes in highway counties to those in adjacent and non-adjacent control counties. The RDA models found statistically significant changes in population, per capita income, and taxable sales related to highway development. The study found that some counties benefitted from developmental highways, some were unchanged, while some experienced economic decline. RDA models with adjacent controls had better explanatory powers while those with non-adjacent controls were more sensitive to highway-related changes in economic activity. When significant non-highway activities were present, adjacent control models may have understated highway-related impacts, while non-adjacent control models may have overstated these impacts. Arguments for using adjacent and non-adjacent experimental designs are discussed.