Because of considerably increased farmland prices, not only in Germany, the question arises whether farmland is still affordable for farmers. Hence, there is a call for price caps. If farmland prices are to be capped by political intervention, identifying the main farmland price determinants especially for the highest prices is essential. Using quantile regression for German standard farmland values, we find heterogeneous relationships across the estimated quantiles for several covariates. Nonagricultural factors are often more pronounced at the upper tail of the conditional distribution. We recommend focusing primarily on factors in the upper quantiles to prevent further farmland price increases.

This study evaluates the farmland price forecasts provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1991: quarter 1 (Q1) through 2016: Q1. Prior studies have demonstrated that similar surveys of agricultural bankers provide accurate predictions of the direction of future farm real estate values through qualitative forecast evaluation. This study extends the existing knowledge base by converting the qualitative responses to quantitative expectations. The quantified expectations are then subjected to additional forecast optimality tests, which suggest that the forecasts are unbiased but inefficient.

This study examines the impact of publicly supported insurance on agricultural land values. The analysis employs confidential, nationally representative panel data on field-level pastureland values and exploits a natural experiment provided by gradual introduction of the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance Pilot Program. We use a field-level fixed-effects model that controls for several time-variant factors. We find that insurance availability is associated with an increase of at least 4 percent in pastureland values. This increase is comparable with increases generated by other government programs but is much smaller than total farmland value increases experienced in recent years.

Wildlife recreation—hunting, fishing, and wildlife watching—appears to be an increasingly important pastime for many Americans. From 1991 to 2001, U.S. wildlife recreation expenditures surged from $77 billion to $108 billion in 2001 dollars. Land lease and ownership expenditures by wildlife recreation participants are also rising and appear to be capitalized into farmland values. This paper analyzes the impact of hunting lease rates on farmland values in Texas. The results indicate that counties with higher wildlife recreation income streams have higher land values.