Introduction
Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) refers to any non-medical procedure involving the modification, partial or total removal, or other harm to the female genital organs, with no health benefits for girls and women (WHO, 2024). FGM/C is internationally recognised as a violation of human rights, an ‘irreparable, irreversible abuse’, and an extreme form of discrimination against women (UN General Assembly, 2012: 2). While the practice varies across different communities, regions, and countries, research has identified some common factors underpinning FGM/C. These include tradition, sexual morals, marriageability, religion, perceived health benefits, and male sexual enjoyment (Berg and Denison Reference Berg and Denison2013). FGM/C is documented in 94 countries worldwide through nationally representative data, indirect estimates, small-scale studies, anecdotal evidence, and media or NGO reports (Equality Now, 2025). Most quantitative knowledge originates from 31 countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, where nationwide representative surveys including a module on FGM/C are available. The latest available estimates based on these countries’ data suggest that at least 230 million girls and women globally have undergone some form of FGM/C. This number does not include other FGM/C-practising countries or immigrant women living in Western countries (UNICEF, 2024).
Due to rapid population growth in countries where FGM/C is practised, recent data show a 15% increase in the number of women affected, 30 million more girls and women compared to the previous worldwide estimate released in 2016 (UNICEF, 2024). The COVID-19 pandemic also negatively affected the path to FGM/C eradication by disrupting programmes to prevent harmful practices (UNFPA, 2020).
Despite the effort to estimate the number of women affected worldwide, the spread of FGM/C outside traditional practising countries due to the increasing feminisation of international migration flows is poorly understood.
A systematic study based on the 2011 Census data suggested the presence of around 600,000 foreign-born women with FGM/C living in the European Union, Norway, and Switzerland (Van Baelen et al., Reference Van Baelen, Ortensi and Leye2016). Additionally, evidence from various countries and referred to different years suggests that up to a total of 180,000 girls under 15 have been at risk of FGM/C in 17 European countries, based on national studies carried out by EIGE and collected by END FGM (2024).
The demand for better and updated data on the prevalence of women at risk of FGM/C was reaffirmed by the European Parliament (Reference Parliament2020), which calls on the Commission, Member States, and all relevant actors involved, including academics, to provide more accurate qualitative and quantitative information on FGM/C as a fundamental tool to achieve the abandonment of FGM/C by 2030 and evidence-based policymaking in western countries.
Estimates have also recently been provided for Canada (Findlay et al., Reference Findlay, Bougie, Kohen and Frank2023), Australia (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2019), and the United States (Callaghan, Reference Callaghan2023).
Building on the most recent methodological development in FGM/C indirect estimation for non-FGM/C-practising countries, this paper presents detailed estimates for foreign-born and foreign Italian-born women and girls for Italy as of 1 January 2023, to support resource planning and policymaking and advance the debate on methodological estimation.
Theoretical background
Estimating FGM/C prevalence in migrant communities presents numerous challenges and methodological issues. Due to the lack of specific surveys targeting the extent of FGM/C among migrant populations, most studies assume that their FGM/C prevalence mirrors that of non-migrants surveyed in FGM/C-practising countries (Van Baelen et al., Reference Van Baelen, Ortensi and Leye2016; EIGE, 2021; Findlay et al., Reference Findlay, Bougie, Kohen and Frank2023). This approach, known as ‘indirect estimation’, is popular because it is simple, replicable, and resource-efficient; in many cases, it is the only means available to provide estimates outside of practising countries. However, policymakers should be aware that these data are a projection of FGM/C trends observed in practising countries on data about migrant women living in an immigration country based on the fundamental hypothesis that non-migrant and migrant women share a similar FGM/C prevalence and attitude towards FGM/C. Scholars have questioned this assumption as it fails to consider the differences between international migrants and non-migrants regarding social and geographical origin. The recent surge in studies on contemporary migration has suggested that international migrants tend to be positively selected in terms of their social origin (Wouterse and van den Berg, Reference Wouterse and van den Berg2011; Schoumaker et al., Reference Schoumaker, Flahaux, Schans, Beauchemin, Mazzucato, Sakho and Beauchemin2015; De Haas, Reference De Haas2008; Flahaux and De Haas, Reference Flahaux and De Haas2016; Engzell and Ichou, Reference Engzell and Ichou2020). Critically, to the aim of providing a robust estimation of FGM/C prevalence among international migrants, this selection is also observed for the subgroup of African female migrants, suggesting a direct impact on the occurrence of FGM/C in migrant communities (Jamie, Reference Jamie2013; Thomas and Logan, Reference Thomas and Logan2012; Reynolds, Reference Reynolds2006). Data from practising countries show that such selection correlates with the occurrence of FGM/C (Ortensi et al., Reference Ortensi, Farina and Menonna2015), as women with higher levels of wealth and education or who grew up in urban contexts usually show a lower occurrence of FGM/C (UNICEF, 2013; UNICEF, 2024). To overcome these issues, recent efforts have focused on developing corrections to reduce the bias derived from applying national estimations to communities living abroad. Exterkate (Reference Exterkate2013) examined Dutch data and emphasised the importance of age and region-specific FGM/C prevalence for achieving the most realistic estimates in migrant communities. Andro et al. (Reference Andro, Lesclingand, Cambois and Cirbeau2009) corrected indirect estimation based on women’s age at arrival and place of birth. Ortensi et al. (Reference Ortensi, Farina and Menonna2015) aimed to obtain some coefficients to correct indirect estimation based on the expected socio-economic composition of migrants’ flows using the ‘selection hypothesis method’. The current study builds upon this approach, aiming to further improve indirect estimations of the number of women aged 15 and over (15+) who experience FGM/C and of the number of girls at risk.
Italy as a country of concern for FGM/C
Italy has received significant flows of international migrants since the 1990s. The increasing number of women among migrants has led to a large population of women from countries where FGM/C is practised. As of 1 January 2023, around 204,000 women and girls born in FGM/C-practising countries were residing in Italy (ISTAT, 2023). The largest communities are from Egypt (more than 47,000), Nigeria (more than 44,000), and Senegal (more than 29,000).
Numerous estimates have been made regarding the number of women and girls affected by FGM/C in Italy. This country is one of the few cases where ad hoc sample surveys have been conducted to estimate the prevalence among girls, and therefore, for countries of origin included in the surveys, a measure of the actual diffusion of FGM/C among migrants is available (direct estimation). This means that for years close to the surveys, figures based on a combination of direct estimation for the nationalities covered by the survey and indirect estimation for other countries of origin are available. Estimates based on this methodology are available for 2018 and 2016, although they are based on different populations of women with a foreign background and are therefore not directly comparable. Accordingly, 87,600 excised women were estimated to be present among foreign resident women (anagrafe dei residenti; Population Register) as of 1 January 2018, including 7,600 minors (Farina et al., Reference Farina, Ortensi and Pettinato2020). In 2016, it was estimated that 60,000 to 80,0000 foreign-born residents (therefore including naturalised women) aged 15 and over with FGM/C were present in Italy as of 1 January 2016 (Ortensi et al., Reference Ortensi, Farina and Leye2018).
A previous study using only indirect estimation based on census data quantified the potential presence of around 60,000 foreign-born women aged 10 and over in Italy in 2011 (Van Baelen et al. Reference Van Baelen, Ortensi and Leye2016).
Using a similar indirect approach, a study conducted by EIGE (2018) estimated that, in 2016, 15%–24% of girls were at risk of FGM/C in Italy out of a total population of more than 76,000 girls aged 0–18 originating from countries where FGM/C is practised.
Data and methods
Data
Most studies on FGM/C prevalence use a combination of data on the presence of women from FGM/C-practising countries in countries of immigration and data on FGM/C prevalence in countries of origin. Despite the awareness that the extent to which FGM/C is practised goes beyond the number of countries covered by nationally representative data, this study complies with the conventional approach of considering the 31 countries covered by such data as practising countries (see Table 1).
Table 1. Overview of Data Sources from Practising Countries Used and Selection Hypothesis Coefficients
Source: Authors’ elaboration from DHS/MICS surveys.
FGM/C prevalence by 5-year age group was obtained from the latest Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) or Multiple Indicators Cluster Surveys (MICS) data. Exceptions include data for Indonesia that were taken by the National Institute of Health Research and Development, Ministry of Health, 2013 Basic Health Research (RISKESDAS), available only for girls aged 0–11, and could be considered a minimum. Other data sources include Djibouti’s 2012 Family Health Survey, Egypt’s 2015 Health Issues Survey, Eritrea’s 2010 Population and Health Survey, and the 2020 Somali Health and Demographic Survey. Detailed information on the data source used can be found in Table 1.
Data on the presence of women in Italy as of 1 January 2023 were obtained from ISTAT and refer to:
-
• Resident women and girls born in each k-th FGM/C-practising country (first-generation migrants
$ {FBW}_{j}^{k}$
) and age group j. -
• Resident women and girls born in Italy who have the nationality of each k-th FGM/C-practising country (second-generation migrants
$ {IBW}_{j}^{k}$
) and age group j.
These data are the best attempt so far to consider both first- and second-generation women and girls in estimating the presence of women with FGM/C or at risk of undergoing it.
Method
Estimation of the prevalence of FGM/C among foreign-born women aged 15+
Data were first updated starting from the most recent set of 5-year prevalence rates for women aged 15–49 in each country of origin (Menonna et al., Reference Menonna, Ortensi and Farina2025). Using all information at the national level available from all surveys, the predicted set of 5-year age prevalence was estimated for 2022 at each country-of-origin level following the cohort component method used by Ortensi and Menonna (Reference Ortensi and Menonna2017) to project future trends. As data were collected before 2022 in all countries, this cohort component method was employed to align the FGM/C prevalence rates at the country level with the data on migrants in Italy measured as of 1 January 2023. This passage addresses potential bias from applying old survey data to the current population. Each 5-year cohort at the national level is properly weighted using data from World Population Prospects 2022 (United Nations, 2022).
The prevalence for younger and older cohorts not available in the data was estimated through a two-step logistic regression interpolation with an upper bound of 100% (Menonna et al., Reference Menonna, Ortensi and Farina2025).
As a further step, adjustments were applied based on the selection hypothesis method (Ortensi et al. Reference Ortensi, Farina and Menonna2015) to estimate the FGM/C prevalence among the migrant population in Italy in 2022. The method is based on the theoretical assumption that migration is a selective process. It aims to reduce the bias arising from the correlation observed in practising countries of FGM/C occurrence with wealth, education, and urban residence (UNICEF, 2013). For each country of origin, the method estimates the set of 5-age-specific FGM/C prevalences among migrants by applying a correction aimed at accounting for the socio-economic selection of migrants compared to non-migrants. Referring to the original formulation (Ortensi et al., Reference Ortensi, Farina and Menonna2015), the selection hypothesis was implemented, excluding the correction for age, as the real age structure for each community is known in this study.
For each country i, the following correction is computed using the arithmetic mean:
$${s_i} = mean\left( {{{{m_{urb,i}}} \over {{m_i}}},{{{m_{hedu,i}}} \over {{m_i}}}\;,{{{m_{hw,i}}} \over {{m_i}}}} \right)$$
where
$ {m}_{urb,i}$
is the prevalence of FGM/C among women aged 15–49 settled in urban areas,
$ {m}_{hedu,i}$
is the prevalence of FGM/C among women aged 15–49 with a higher level of education,
$ {m}_{hw,i}$
is the prevalence of FGM/C among women aged 15–49 belonging to the highest wealth quintile, and
$ {m}_{i}$
is the prevalence of FGM/C among all women aged 15–49.
The coefficients applied for each community are reported in Table 1.
The 2022 FGM/C set of prevalence rates among foreign-born women by j 5-year groups
$(\hat p_j^k)$
for each country of birth k were estimated according to this procedure.
Estimation of the risk of undergoing FGM/C among foreign-born girls aged 0–14
The methodology used in this study for girls at risk differs from that proposed by EIGE (2019). A conservative maximum scenario is provided for foreign-born girls, irrespective of their age and the typical age for cutting. Accordingly, the proportion of foreign-born girls aged 0–14 at risk will be equal to the proportion of girls estimated to have undergone FGM/C aged 15–19
$(\hat p_{j15 - 19}^k)$
for each country of origin k (updated and corrected for migration).
Scenarios for the FGM/C prevalence among Italian-born foreign women aged 15+
For women born in Italy, three scenarios are considered:
- High-risk scenario: the proportion of Italian-born girls with FGM/C for each citizenship k will be the same estimated for foreign-born girls from the same country, without any mitigation derived from the fact that they were born in Italy. However, previous surveys carried out in Italy suggest that being born in Italy lowers the risk of being cut (Farina and Ortensi, Reference Farina and Ortensi2014), even if this reduction is hard to quantify.
For this reason, being born in Italy is considered a protective factor that reduces the risk of being cut.
- Low-risk scenario: the risk will be a quarter of that estimated for foreign-born girls
$\bar p_{j,\;\;x - x + 4}^k = {1 \over 4}\hat p_{j,\;x - x + 4}^k$
A medium-risk scenario mediates these two hypotheses:
- Medium-risk scenario (midpoint estimate)
${\mathop{p}\limits^{=}}_{j,x - x + 4}^k = {{\hat p_{j,x - x + 4}^k + \bar p_{j,x - x + 4}^k} \over 2}$
Risk scenarios of undergoing FGM/C among foreign Italian-born girls aged 0–14
Three scenarios are also considered for girls aged 0–14 born in Italy:
- High-risk scenario: the proportion of Italian-born girls at risk of FGM/C for each citizenship k will be the same estimated for foreign-born girls aged 15–19
$(\hat p_{j,0 - 14}^k = \hat p_{j,15 - 19}^k)\;$
without any mitigation derived from the fact that they were born in Italy.
- Low-risk scenario: the risk will be a quarter of that estimated for foreign-born girls
$\bar p_{j\;0 - 14}^k = {1 \over 4}\hat p_{j\;0 - 14}^k$
A medium-risk scenario mediates these two hypotheses
- Medium-risk scenario (midpoint estimate)
${\mathop{p}\limits^{=}}_{j,0 - 14}^k = {{\hat p_{j,0 - 14}^k + \bar p_{j,0 - 14}^k} \over 2}$
Number of women affected and at risk
For each country of origin/citizenship k, the number of women aged 15 and above with FGM/C was calculated as
$$\overline {W^k} = \mathop \sum \nolimits_{j = x - \left( {x + 4} \right)}^{} (\hat p_j^k)(FBW_j^k) + (\hat p_j^k)(IBW_j^k)$$
where x-(x+4)=15-19, 20-24, … is the 5-year group.
For each country of origin/citizenship k, the number of women aged 0–14 at risk of FGM/C was calculated as:
$\overline{G^k} = \mathop \sum \nolimits_{j = x - \left( {x + 4} \right)}^{} (\hat p_j^k)(FBG_j^k) + \left( {{\mathop{p}\limits^{=}}_{j\;0 - 14}^k} \right)(IBG_j^k)$
, where x = 0, 5, 10.
Results
Estimation of the prevalence among migrants
A comparison between the prevalence rates available for the countries of origin and the estimation for migrants originating from those countries and living in Italy in 2022 (Tables 2 and 3) highlights, in most cases, an expected decrease in the estimated incidence for 15–49-year-olds for at least three reasons. First, the occurrence of FGM/C tends to decrease in younger cohorts. By updating the set of prevalence rates to align data from old surveys to 2022, older generations – with a higher incidence of FGM/C – exit the observation window, replaced by younger women generally with a lower estimated incidence of FGM/C. A second reason is that applying the selection hypotheses results in an expected lower prevalence among migrants except for women from Guinea, Sudan, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Iraq. A third reason, partially connected to the previous point, relates to the differing age structures of those who emigrate compared to those who remain in their home countries. Emigrants tend to be younger on average. This demographic shift skews the weighted average incidence of FGM/C in Italy, placing greater emphasis on the updated and adjusted values for younger age groups rather than older age groups. Consequently, projections for 26 out of the 31 countries under analysis show negative variations in the updated and corrected FGM/C estimate among migrants in 2022 compared to the most recent observation in the country of origin. The highest expected incidence of FGM/C among those over 14 years old is observed among Somalis, Sudanese, and Guineans, all exceeding 90%. The prevalence is even higher among foreign-born women, reaching 97.8% for Somalis, 90.8% for Sudanese, and 91.5% for Guineans. In contrast, the incidence among Italian-born women is expected to be significantly lower, at 57.1% for Somalis, 54.5% for Sudanese, and 30.3% for Guineans (Table 2).
Number of women aged 15 and over in Italy estimated to have undergone FGM/C
As of 1 January 2023, around 88,600 women with FGM/C aged 15 and over are estimated to be present in Italy, representing 46% of the resident women from FGM/C-practising countries (Table 2). If the country of birth is considered, 46.5% of foreign-born women and 22.5% of Italian-born women are estimated to be cut. Despite migrants being relatively younger than Italian natives, approximately one-third of the women estimated to be affected are over 50, corresponding to 28,000 women. FGM/C is, therefore, an emerging health issue also among women who are out of childbearing age. Most women estimated to have undergone FGM/C were born outside Italy (98.9%), and fewer than a thousand were born in Italy according to the midpoint estimate (medium-risk scenario; Tables 3 and 4).
Table 2. Number of Women (15+) and Estimated Women (15+) from FGM/C-Practising Countries. Italy, 1 January 2023
| Country | Foreign-born women (15+) |
Foreign-born women (15+) with FGM/C |
% FGM/C within foreign-born women (15+) |
Italian-born women (15+) |
Italian-born women (15+) with FGM/C (midpoint estimate) |
% FGM/C within Italian-born women (15+) |
Women (15+) |
Women (15+) with FGM/C |
% FGM/C within women (15+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 39,587 | 31,111 | 78.6 | 1,405 | 596 | 42.4 | 40,992 | 31,707 | 77.3 |
| Nigeria | 43,290 | 21,604 | 49.9 | 996 | 109 | 10.9 | 44,286 | 21,713 | 49.0 |
| Ethiopia | 14,095 | 8,975 | 63.7 | 69 | 20 | 29.0 | 14,164 | 8,995 | 63.5 |
| Senegal | 26,752 | 5,902 | 22.1 | 705 | 93 | 13.2 | 27,457 | 5,995 | 21.8 |
| Eritrea | 5,388 | 4,555 | 84.5 | 31 | 14 | 45.2 | 5,499 | 4,569 | 83.1 |
| Somalia | 4,083 | 3,995 | 97.8 | 14 | 8 | 57.1 | 4,097 | 4,003 | 97.7 |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 11,258 | 2,466 | 21.9 | 175 | 21 | 12.0 | 11,433 | 2,487 | 21.8 |
| Burkina Faso | 3,975 | 2,335 | 58.7 | 74 | 25 | 33.8 | 4,049 | 2,360 | 58.3 |
| Indonesia | 3,195 | 1,560 | 48.8 | 23 | 8 | 34.8 | 3,218 | 1,568 | 48.7 |
| Guinea | 1,574 | 1,440 | 91.5 | 33 | 10 | 30.3 | 1,607 | 1,450 | 90.2 |
| Mali | 871 | 756 | 86.8 | 7 | 4 | 57.1 | 878 | 760 | 86.6 |
| Sudan | 708 | 643 | 90.8 | 11 | 6 | 54.5 | 719 | 649 | 90.3 |
| Gambia | 755 | 509 | 67.4 | 16 | 8 | 50.0 | 771 | 517 | 67.1 |
| Sierra Leone | 535 | 417 | 77.9 | 19 | 8 | 42.1 | 554 | 425 | 76.7 |
| Kenya | 2,619 | 343 | 13.1 | 14 | 1 | 7.1 | 2,633 | 344 | 13.1 |
| Iraq | 1,557 | 250 | 16.1 | 16 | 1 | 6.3 | 1,573 | 251 | 16.0 |
| Ghana | 15,097 | 189 | 1.3 | 391 | 1 | 0.3 | 15,488 | 190 | 1.2 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 340 | 109 | 32.1 | 3 | 1 | 33.3 | 343 | 110 | 32.1 |
| Tanzania | 1,048 | 106 | 10.1 | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 1,057 | 106 | 10.0 |
| Mauritania | 175 | 82 | 46.9 | 11 | 3 | 27.3 | 186 | 85 | 45.7 |
| Liberia | 274 | 75 | 27.4 | 7 | 1 | 14.3 | 281 | 76 | 27.0 |
| Djibouti | 56 | 46 | 82.1 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 56 | 46 | 82.1 |
| Togo | 1,926 | 44 | 2.3 | 26 | 0 | 0.0 | 1,952 | 44 | 2.3 |
| Chad | 130 | 40 | 30.8 | 2 | 1 | 50.0 | 132 | 41 | 31.1 |
| Benin | 1,109 | 35 | 3.2 | 23 | 0 | 0.0 | 1,132 | 35 | 3.1 |
| Cameroon | 6,830 | 35 | 0.5 | 76 | 0 | 0.0 | 6,906 | 35 | 0.5 |
| Yemen | 182 | 27 | 14.8 | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 188 | 27 | 14.4 |
| Central African Republic | 122 | 14 | 11.5 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 124 | 14 | 11.3 |
| Maldives | 9 | 2 | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 9 | 2 | 22.2 |
| Niger | 196 | 1 | 0.5 | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 202 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Uganda | 645 | 1 | 0.2 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 652 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Total | 188,381 | 87,667 | 46.5 | 4,177 | 939 | 22.5 | 192,558 | 88,606 | 46.0 |
Source: Authors’ elaboration from DHS/MICS and other national surveys.
Table 3. Number of Foreign-Born Women (15+) and Estimated Cut Foreign-Born Women (15+) from FGM/C-Practising Countries by 5-Year Age Groups. Italy, 1 January 2023
Source: Authors’ elaboration from DHS/MICS and other national surveys.
Table 4. Number of Foreign Italian-Born Women (15+) and Estimated Cut Foreign Italian-Born Women (15+) from FGM/C-Practising Countries by Age Groups. Italy, 1 January 2023
Source: Authors’ elaboration from DHS/MICS and other national surveys.
According to the high-risk scenario, the number of foreign Italian-born women over 15 with FGM/C would be just around 1,500 (Table 4), and the number of those aged 0-14 would be about 14,000 (Table 7). The low-risk scenario reduces the values for those born in Italy by three-quarters compared to those born abroad. In this scenario, the number of over-15s with FGM/C would be fewer than 400, and those under-15s would be fewer than 4,000.
Table 2 provides details by women’s background of origin. Among women over the age of 14 who have undergone FGM/C, Egyptians and Nigerians together account for more than 60% of the nearly 89,000 estimated affected women, despite representing less than half of the female population across the 31 target states. Women from the most relevant seven African communities account for 90% of the women affected by this practice in Italy.
Estimation of the number of girls potentially cut or at risk aged 0–14
About 7,000 foreign-born girls aged 0–14 are estimated to be at risk of undergoing FGM/C, and approximately 9,000 Italian-born girls are estimated to be in the same situation according to the medium-risk scenario (Table 5 and 6). Most girls at risk originate from Egypt and Senegal (Table 7).
Table 5. Number of Foreign-Born Girls (0–14) and Foreign-Born Girls (0–14) Considered at Risk of FGM/C by Age Group and Most Relevant Countries of Birth. Italy, 1 January 2023
Source: Authors’ elaboration from DHS/MICS and other national surveys.
Table 6. Number of Foreign Italian-Born Girls (0–14) and Girls at Risk by scenario. Italy, 1 January 2023
Source: Authors’ elaboration from DHS/MICS and other national surveys.
Table 7. Number of Girls (0–14) and Estimated Girls at Risk of FGM/C (0–14) from FGM/C-Practising Countries. Italy, 1 January 2023
Source: Authors’ elaboration from DHS/MICS and other national surveys.
Conclusion
This study provides a revised estimation of the prevalence of FGM/C among foreign-born and second-generation women and girls in Italy as of 1 January 2023, highlighting a significant number of women affected by FGM/C, with nearly 88,000 foreign-born women over the age of 15 estimated to have undergone the practice. Additionally, approximately 7,000 young foreign-born girls and 9,000 Italian-born girls are at potential risk. The study confirms that the prevalence of FGM/C among migrant communities in Italy varies widely by nationality, age group, and socio-economic background. Moreover, the study suggests that the issue also affects women outside childbearing age (50+) who are less likely to be in contact with gynaecologists, especially if they migrated after the birth of the last child.
Results underline the importance of refining indirect estimation methodologies to account for the socio-demographic selectivity of migrant populations. Compared to previous estimates, the study estimates a decrease in FGM/C prevalence among younger age groups due to changing social norms in the country of origin, migration selectivity, and the presence of a relevant proportion of Italian-born women. However, the persistence of FGM/C among certain communities, particularly among migrants from countries with high FGM/C prevalence, indicates the need for continued vigilance and targeted intervention strategies.
Based on surveys carried out in Italy (Farina and Ortensi, Reference Farina and Ortensi2014), the study also hypothesises scenarios to estimate the risks that second-generation Italian girls face. While their estimated risk is lower than that of their foreign-born counterparts, many remain vulnerable to FGM/C. Policymakers must address this issue through culturally sensitive awareness campaigns, strengthened legal frameworks, and accessible support services for at-risk individuals.
Furthermore, this research contributes to the broader European discourse on FGM/C by providing an updated, evidence-based estimation model that can be replicated in other non-practising countries receiving migrants from FGM/C-practising regions. By improving the accuracy of prevalence data, policymakers can better allocate resources, enhance prevention programmes, and develop more effective strategies to protect women and girls from this harmful practice.
In conclusion, while progress has been made in understanding and estimating the prevalence of FGM/C among migrant populations in Italy, there remains a pressing need for ongoing research, community engagement, and policy interventions to eliminate the practice. A multi-faceted approach, including legal enforcement, education, healthcare support, and cultural dialogue, is essential in the fight against FGM/C and in ensuring the rights and well-being of affected women and girls in Italy.
The paper has several limitations. One major issue is the lack of comparability with previous studies conducted in Italy, which stems from differing methodologies used in earlier waves. For the same reasons, it is not possible to compare girls at risk in Italy with those identified by EIGE. Finally, these indirect estimates are based on standardised hypothetical assumptions and do not incorporate personal assessments of women, nor do they consider verification through the actual conditions of women – such as those attending health services who can be identified as FGM/C carriers. Despite these limitations, the estimates provide valuable insights into the magnitude of the phenomenon. From a monitoring perspective, if these estimates are periodically replicated, they can offer meaningful information on the evolving prevalence of FGM/C in Italy.
Data availability statement
Data used for the study were collected from the cited survey materials and are available on the DORA project website https://ares20.it/dora/
Data on migrants in Italy can be requested from the ISTAT contact centre https://contact.istat.it/s/?language=en_US
Funding statement
Project funded by the European Commission DG JUSTICE in the framework of the activities of CERV-2022-DAPHNE Data integration for acknowledging risks and protecting children from violence (DORA).
Competing interests
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
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