Although several global environmental drivers such as climate change and habitat alteration degrade biodiversity (Sala et al., Reference Sala, Chapin, Armesto, Berlow, Bloomfield and Dirzo2000), unsustainable rates of illegal harvesting remain the key threat to rhinoceroses (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022). Annual rates of rhinoceros poaching in Africa declined from a high of 5.1% in 2015 to 2.3% (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022) during the lockdowns in response to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 (Harari, Reference Harari2020). During the same period, the poaching rate in Asia is uncertain: 0.05% of the greater one-horned rhinoceroses Rhinoceros unicornis population was poached (two incidences), and the pressures on Javan Rhinoceros sondaicus and Sumatran Dicerorhinus sumatrensis rhinoceroses may be substantially greater but are unknown (Talukdar, Reference Talukdar2022). Here we focus on Africa and ask how the continental poaching rates have varied since 2020, now that the global response to Covid-19 has dampened. Furthermore, we examine how rates of poaching have varied across range states and if any lessons can be learnt from the different responses, should they exist. We also check trends in rhinoceros numbers with increases expected when the annual poaching is < 3.5% of the continental population (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022).

We collated country-specific data on poaching and rhinoceros numbers in Africa since 2020 for both the black Diceros bicornis and white Ceratotherium simum rhinoceroses. We used 2020 and 2021 data reported at the 19th Conference of the Parties (CoP19) of CITES (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022), and 2022 and 2023 data provided by the national management authorities of range states. Estimates provided by range states make use of various survey techniques depending on the population size, density, size of the protected area and/or environmental conditions (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Bissett, Cowell, Gaylard, Greaver and Hayes2017). We treat these as the minimum number of living rhinoceroses of each species because range states do not report confidence intervals as part of their reporting mandate under agreement with CITES.

Poaching records are not consistently available on a species-specific basis. We thus used an aggregate measure that combined poaching incidences of both the black and white rhinoceros. We first calculated the annual continental poaching rate as the total poached rhinoceroses detected in a year as a per cent of the total number of rhinoceroses, irrespective of species, at the start of that year. This allowed us to evaluate the observed poaching rate against the critical 3.5% threshold below which rhinoceros populations are predicted to increase in numbers (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022). Secondly, we fitted estimates of the total number of individuals of each species to an exponential population model ( ${N_t} = {N_0}{e^{rt}}$ , where r is exponential growth, N _t is the population size at time t; Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022), thereby estimating species-specific annual growth rates for each country for 2020–2023. The continental population growth rate was estimated by calculating a weighted average based on country-specific annual growth rates. Each country’s growth rate was weighted according to the average number of rhinoceroses reported in that country during 2020–2023. This approach ensured that countries with larger rhinoceros populations had a proportionally greater influence on the overall continental estimate. It allowed us to assess trends in rhinoceros numbers at a continental scale for 2020–2023.

African rhinoceros range states reported a total of 551 and 586 rhinoceroses poached during 2022 and 2023, respectively. These totals are higher than 513 and 541 noted during 2020 and 2021 (Table 1). South Africa continued to experience most of the poaching losses: 438 and 499 during 2022 and 2023, respectively. These losses were higher than the 394 recorded in 2020. The country reported 451 rhinoceroses poached in 2021. Namibia also recorded increases in the number of rhinoceroses poached during this period (43 in 2020, 47 in 2021, 93 in 2022, and 63 in 2023). There is some marginal evidence that the rate of poaching increased linearly during 2020–2023 (slope = 0.068, t ₃ = 3.36, P = 0.08, from a linear regression). The change across four years, however, has been minimal, increasing from 2.30% in 2020 to 2.51% in 2023 (Fig. 1). These losses of rhinoceroses to poaching are well below the rate of 3.5% above which the total continental population is predicted to decline (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022), and predicts that African rhinoceros numbers should be increasing.

Fig. 1 (a) Annual poaching rate and (b) estimated number of African rhinoceroses for 2006–2023. Note that 2020, the year when Covid-19 regulations restricted travel, had the lowest poaching rate in the decade from 2014 to 2023. Figure adapted from Ferreira et al. (Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022). Poaching rate is the number of poached rhinoceroses detected as a per cent of the number alive at the start of a calendar year (i.e. the estimate the year before). Error bars represent the 95% confidence limits (CL) estimated from $CL\ {=}\pm 1.96\sqrt {{{p\left( {1 - p} \right)} \over n}} $ where p is the fraction of poached rhinoceroses.

Table 1 The reported total number of black Diceros bicornis and white Ceratotherium simum rhinoceroses poached in African countries during 2006–2023. Note that countries update estimates for earlier years if new information becomes available.

Since 2020, continental rhinoceros numbers, irrespective of species, increased at 2.9% (95% CI 1.7–4.1%) per annum (Table 2, Fig. 1). The average figure, however, masks species-specific changes. For instance, black rhinoceroses increased at 2.7% (0.9–4.4%), with notable differences for subspecies: south-western black rhinoceros D. bicornis bicornis at 1.5% (-2.2–5.3%), south-central black rhinoceros D. bicornis minor at 2.7% (-1.4–6.8%), and eastern black rhinoceroses D. bicornis michaeli at 4.7% (3.1–6.4%). White rhinoceroses increased at 3.0% (1.2–4.8%), comprised exclusively of southern white rhinoceroses C. bicornis simum as the remaining northern white rhinoceros C. bicornis cottoni population comprises only two cows. Cost-efficient provision of rhinoceros protection (Ferreira & Dziba, Reference Ferreira and Dziba2021) and good regional safety and security (Rademeyer, Reference Rademeyer2023) most likely enhanced the performance of the eastern black rhinoceros.

Table 2 Estimates of rhinoceros populations reported by African countries for 2020–2023. Note that countries update estimates for 2020 and 2021 (Ferreira et al. Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022) if new information becomes available. Information for 2022 and 2023 was collated from reports provided by range states to the IUCN Species Survival Commission African Rhino Specialist Group.

The net result is that by the end of 2023, there were a reported 6,448 black rhinoceroses comprising 2,583 south-western, 2,477 south-central and 1,388 eastern black rhinoceroses in Africa. There were a further 33 south-central black rhinoceroses and 317 eastern black rhinoceroses in zoos across the world, and China reported 14 black rhinoceroses of unknown subspecies. Africa had 17,545 southern white rhinoceroses and two northern white rhinoceroses. There were 930 southern white rhinoceroses within zoo collections and a further 332 southern white rhinoceroses in facilities in China.

Despite these overall increases in rhinoceros numbers across Africa, trends in some important populations are of concern. South-western black rhinoceroses in Namibia declined, most likely a result of a combination of ongoing poaching pressures (IRF, 2023) and how the subspecies responds to extended droughts (Mamba & Randhir, Reference Mamba and Randhir2024), as experienced recently in Namibia (Bollig, Reference Bollig2023). After increases of 2.4% per annum from 2020 to 2022, Namibia reported a decline of 3.8% for south-western black rhinoceroses to 2,113 individuals in 2023 (Table 2). In South Africa, poaching activities shifted from the Kruger National Park and adjacent private properties, where authorities are implementing extensive dehorning of rhinoceroses (Kuiper et al., Reference Kuiper, Haussmann, Whitfield, Dreyer, Ferreira and Hofmeyr2025), to KwaZulu-Natal (DFFE, 2024). South-central black rhinoceroses increased at 4.5% per annum from 2020 to 2022, although South Africa reported an 8.9% decline in this subspecies of black rhinoceros to 1,522 individuals in 2023.

For black rhinoceroses, populations in Kenya and Zimbabwe play important roles in offsetting the impacts of poaching in Namibia and South Africa. At a local scale, non-state custodianships of rhinoceroses make significant contributions in South Africa, Namibia, Kenya and Zimbabwe. For instance, 53% of southern white rhinoceroses in South Africa reside within areas not under pure state management (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022; Clements et al., Reference Clements, Balfour and Di Minin2023).

Although African rhinoceros numbers have increased since 2020, recovery remains constrained by ongoing poaching. For instance, at zero poaching, African rhinoceroses could increase at 7.8% (5.6–10.0%) per annum (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, Ellis, Burgess, Baruch-Mordo, Talukdar and Knight2022). Incorporating multiple management models, and particularly management partnerships (Muntifering et al., Reference Muntifering, Linklater, Clark, Kasaona, Du Preez and Kasaona2017), provides increased opportunities in many range states to further enhance rhinoceros recovery. Securing safe habitat for both species of African rhinoceros remains a priority for their conservation (Ferreira et al., Reference Ferreira, ’t Sas-Rolfes, Balfour, Barichievy, Chege and Dean2024). Although the responses to the security risks are diverse (Kuiper et al., Reference Kuiper, Haussmann, Whitfield, Dreyer, Ferreira and Hofmeyr2025), successful conservation of rhinoceroses in Africa will require that society addresses the drivers of rhinoceros poaching for their horn and the subsequent trafficking of the horn at both local and international scales (Conrad, Reference Conrad2012). Of particular importance is the need to address socio-political and historical marginalization of local people (e.g. Hübschle, Reference Hübschle2017). Meaningful participation by Indigenous people and local communities (e.g. Chanyandura, Reference Chanyandura2020) could increase the value to society of keeping living rhinoceroses on the land.

In addition, African rhinoceroses in zoos and captive-breeding operations provide candidate animals for translocation to form founder populations in new areas with free-ranging conditions (Zimmermann, Reference Zimmermann2010). Some of these potential new sites are likely to be, controversially, outside the historical distribution of the focal species/subspecies, and perhaps unacceptable to local stakeholders. Metapopulation framings and management could help address rhinoceros persistence in fragmented habitats (Olivier et al., Reference Olivier, van Aarde and Ferreira2009), and considerations of new information on the genetics of African rhinoceroses (e.g. Sánchez-Barreiro et al., Reference Sánchez-Barreiro, De Cahsan, Westbury, Sun, Margaryan and Fontsere2023) could provide pragmatic opportunities for adapting to global drivers of environmental change (Sala et al., Reference Sala, Chapin, Armesto, Berlow, Bloomfield and Dirzo2000). These opportunities could include appropriate devolution of decision-making (’t Sas-Rolfes & Emslie, Reference ’t Sas-Rolfes and Emslie2024). Such approaches could further enhance the recovery of African rhinoceroses.