Dairy production: basic considerations

Dairy farming is an important contributor to a nation's agricultural output and GDP. Among the east African countries (online Supplementary Table S1), the dairy industry contributes roughly 14, 3.5 and 1.8% of national GDP and 40, 14 and 30% of total agricultural GDP in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania, respectively. Similar to this, the dairy sector makes up roughly 26, 11 and 1.3% of the agricultural GDPs of China, Pakistan and India. The dairy business contributes significantly to the GDP of many countries.

The dairy industry is divided into various subsectors, primarily milk production, processing and distribution. The dairy production systems in East Africa, specifically in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania, are diverse and unique to each country due to variations in agroecology, resources and cultural practices. In general, the dairy industry in eastern Africa is characterized by traditional low input and low output production focused in rural but also urban and peri-urban areas (FAO, 2019). There is considerable diversity in terms of production intensity, crop-dairy integration and herd size with respect to agro-ecological locations. Dairy farming in Asia can be broadly classified into three major types of production systems (Moran and Chamberlain, Reference Moran and Chamberlain2017) as follows: mixed farming, smallholder dairy farms and larger specialist dairy farms. Globally, diversity exists not only across regions of the world but even within narrowly defined geographical areas. Descriptors are often used to provide a snapshot or a trait that encapsulates a dominant feature, where the emphasis may be on the mode of production (pasture-based, organic or conventional systems) or the size of the operation (family, small-scale or industrial). Similarly, in low and-middle-income countries, terms such as subsistence, market-oriented, pastoral or peri-urban are frequently used to characterize dairy systems (Wattiaux, Reference Wattiaux2023).

According to FAO (2018), 77% of the total number of dairy cattle in the world are in Africa and Asia, but represent only 33% of the world's milk production. With approximately 61 million milk cows as of 2023, India has the most milk cows of any nation (online Supplementary Table S2). Ethiopia had the highest number of total cattle in Africa as of 2022, roughly 68 million head. The herd size and structure of the cattle may vary from country to country and place in the region depending on different factors like breed, production system, and agroecology. Globally, with a 15% rise in milk yield per cow from 2,180 liters in 2005 to 2,514 liters in 2015 and a 14% increase in milking cows, the average annual growth rate was 2.8% (FAO, 2018). Global milk production during 2023 was 944 thousand tonne of milk (FAO, 2023), and Fig. 1 provides a regional breakdown of production for 2020. Asia led the world in milk production, accounting for 42% of global production, compared to 26% in Europe and 22% in America (Fig. 1: FAO, 2022). Between 2020 and 2021 Asian production increased 1.3% to 931.1 million tonnes, this being the lowest annualised growth rate since 2013 (FAO, 2023).

Source: (FAO, 2022).

Figure 1. World milk production in 2020 by region.

India ranks first among the world's milk producing nations, achieving an annual production of 221.06 billion liters. By contrast, Ethiopia (with probably the largest African dairy industry) produced around 5.68 billion liters of milk in 2022. This figure excludes peri-urban and urban dairying (online Supplementary Table S3), since this is excluded from the Ethiopian Statistics Service even though this sector includes the majority of improved/crossbred dairy stock. According to the Kenya Dairy Board (2021), Kenya produced 4 billion litres of milk in 2021. The total milk production reported during 2019/20 agricultural year in Tanzania was 3.13 billion litres from cows (National Report, 2021). The difficulties inherent in the collection of accurate data from traditional dairy production industries should not be underestimated, so all of these figures need to be treated with some caution. In terms of production per head, some herds in Pakistan and China aim for 40 to 45 litres per day at peak lactation (comparable to many of the developed dairy industries), but equivalent data are not available for the African nations.

Dairy consumption

Over the next ten years, it is anticipated that the consumption of fresh dairy products, whether they are unprocessed or only slightly processed, will rise and will account for more than two-thirds of the average per capita dairy consumption in low- and middle-income nations (FAO, 2023). The global figure for annual per capita consumption of liquid cow milk is 117.4 litres (FAO, 2023: online Supplementary Table S4). Equivalent figures for Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania are 52.6, 68.8 and 40 liters, respectively. However, Pakistan is known to have the highest liquid milk consumption per capita, which was 230 kg of milk in 2022 (online Supplementary Table S4). Milk consumption per capita differs by country and will increase in emerging countries due to population growth, urbanization and rising income levels, which are the primary drivers of increased demand for dairy products. The usage of processed dairy products varies significantly by area. In terms of milk solids consumed, cheese is second in importance only to fresh dairy products (FAO, 2023). According to Shapiro et al. (Reference Shapiro, Gebru, Desta, Negassa, Nigussie, Aboset and Mechale2017), Ethiopia's total dairy consumption is projected to rise by 127% from 5 billion litres in 2013 to 11 billion litres in 2028, with domestic production covering 71% of total consumption, resulting in a 3.2 billion litre production gap.

Challenges and opportunities for dairy production

Challenges facing the dairy industries of African and Asian countries are highlighted in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. In East Africa, the dairy industry faces challenges such as inadequate quantity and quality of animal feed, disease prevalence and poor access to both breeding advice/opportunities, credit availability (ie finance) and markets for the products (Ericksen and Crane, Reference Ericksen and Crane2018; Assefa et al., Reference Assefa, Gebreyous, Mekonnen and Whitbread2022; Perin and Enahoro, Reference Perin and Enahoro2023). Despite the challenges, the industry has numerous opportunities for growth and development. There is a high demand for milk and dairy products due to population growth, increasing urbanization and associated increment in per capita consumption of milk (Ndambi et al., Reference Ndambi, van der Lee, Endalemaw, Yigrem, Tefera and Andeweg2017; FAOSTAT, 2022). Furthermore, the region is endowed with a diversity of ecosystems including temperate-type highlands, suitable for dairy breeds, cropping and fodder production.

Table 1. Challenges for the dairy industry in selected east african countries

Sources: TRAID-Ethiopia, 2021; Tanzania Livestock Master Plan, 2017; Lucie and Dolapo, 2023; Odero-Waitituh, 2017.

Table 2. Challenges for the dairy industry in selected asian countries

In India, Pakistan and China the dairy industries likewise face various challenges and opportunities (Table 2). In India, the dairy sector has two major obstacles, which are shortage of feed and an inadequate breeding system. However, there are significant opportunities for growth due to a large consumer base, rising demand for dairy products, and government initiatives to boost the industry. Similarly, Pakistan's dairy industry faces challenges including a fragmented supply chain, inadequate infrastructure and lack of replacement stock. Nevertheless, it has significant potential for improvement with increasing urbanization, growing incomes, and a large population that heavily relies on dairy products for nutrition. In China, the dairy industry has seen rapid development in recent years but faces challenges that include dairy cow productivity, environmental concerns, market competitiveness and high cost of milk production. The opportunities lie in the rising middle class, changing dietary habits and increased consumer spending on high-quality dairy products. The opportunities could act as a catalyst for improving dairying, provided the problems are addressed.

In emerging countries, milk production is predominantly managed by smallholders, and the challenges they face are particularly complex and multifaceted in East Africa, revolving around insufficient skills and support services. This necessitates appropriate technical and institutional support, as well as capacity building for producers to better manage their production. In contrast, Asia has both smallholders and larger farms producing milk. There are different stages of intensification and dairy development in these regions. In East Africa, some farmers have adopted a more intensive production system, which relies on higher use of concentrate feeds, crop residues, planted forages, manure and fluid milk marketing services (Chagwiza et al., Reference Chagwiza, Muradian and Ruben2016; Didanna et al., Reference Didanna, Mengistu, Kuma and Kuma2018). Dairy extension support is needed for smallholder dairy producers to better engage in intensive dairying, improve milk productivity, remain in farming and fully contribute to dairy food demand and livelihoods while minimizing ecological pressure. Controlled crossbreeding and planned manure management could help address these challenges and make dairy production sustainable at the farm level. In contrast, despite rapid growth in milk consumption and production, technology adoption in the form of better hygienic practices, better feed and improved livestock remains highly variable, and low for certain regions and technologies in India (Emma and Johan, Reference Emma and Johan2019). China's dairy industry has developed rapidly. At the same time, with the increase in urbanization and the continuous enhancement of consumer requirements for quality and health, the industry still has huge potential for development (Yuan et al., Reference Yuan, Xu and Fang2022). In the transition from small-scale to large scale (100 or more cows per farm) dairy farms in China, more 10,000-cow farms have emerged, which has triggered a debate about the size of dairy farms. Improving market competitiveness while ensuring economic and environmental sustainability are key to the future prospects for China's milk industry (Wang et al., Reference Wang, Wei and Wang2021). There are also other constraints to increased production, and in particualr the country is limited by the availability of domestic grassland and cropland (Yi et al., Reference Yi, Gerbens-Leenes and Guzm´ An-luna2023).

Potential solutions to address the problems

There are some best dairy production practices that other countries could adopt to improve dairy production. Some that have been applied in Asian countires are highlighted in Table 3. The implementation of the White Revolution program and other dairy development initiatives in India significantly increased milk production. The Chinese Dairy Park Collective business model, where investments in processing are driving growth, is a good example of this approach. The park helps keep costs low and improve milk quality. Initiatives of this sort are financed by either the processors, the local authority or the smallholders themselves (Dugdill et al., Reference Dugdill, Bennett, Phelan, Scholten, Muehlhoff, Bennett and McMahon2013). There has been externally funded dairy project implementation using various approaches and also testing different concepts such as the dairy value chain, the dairy hub and public-private partnerships in East Africa, including Ethiopia and Kenya. On-farm demonstration and verification of crossbred cows, with recommended management practices of feeding, health and housing indicated the benefit of this improved dairy production to smallholders and the strong need for strengthening service delivery for improved genotype, feed, AI, health and other important inputs (Table 3).

Table 3. Examples of best practices of dairy production in asian countries

Sources: Landes and Jerry, 2017; (Prabhakar et al., Reference Prabhakar, Bharti and Kumar2020)

Building on best practices and employing integrated strategies to alleviate problems in East Africa, such as capacity development for dairy farmers and AI technicians, improving feed production and water harvesting, enhancing resilience, disease prevention and control, genetic improvement, better milk handling, marketing and value addition, as well as proper housing and manure management, would address the problems. Despite the numerous benefits of improved dairy technologies in breeding, feeding, and management, their adoption rates vary significantly due to various factors (Korir et al., Reference Korir, Manning, Moore, Lindahl, Gimechu, Mihret, Berg, Wood and Nyokabi2023). The sector provides livelihood and employment for smallholder farmers. In addition to building the capacity of smallholders, increasing the number and productivity of medium and large dairy producers through policy and investment support is crucial to bridging the gap between demand and supply. Improved practices increase productivity, enhance smallholder livelihoods and food/nutrition security, in that way boosting their resilience to climate change and reducing emissions. Thus, this would enhance the sustainability of milk production and consumption in the future. Some European companies have been involved in dairy processing in Africa, which contributes to market access and catalyzing more production to small-scale farmers. For instance, Arla is successfully expanding in Africa through its own efforts and by collaborating with NGOs, government organizations, knowledge institutions, and other companies (https://www.arla.com). Holland dairy has been operating since 2009 in Ethiopia with milk collection centers in different locations (https://holland-dairy.com/). The largest milk processing firm in Kenya is Brookside dairies, which has several small milk processing firms since 1993 (Mbaya et al., Reference Mbaya, Maina and Namusonge2021). However, they operate below their total processing capacity and have limited geographical coverage, despite the presence of rich dairy potential locations. Thus, more work is needed to increase milk supply in formal marketing channels and to invest in medium and large-scale farms.

The presence of large dairy operations in Asia, particularly in China and India, presents opportunities to adopt Western practices. Western countries lead in modernized dairy production, incorporating advanced technologies and sophisticated management practices. The region boasts a developed dairy infrastructure, high milk yields per cow, and extensive milk processing capabilities. They are characterized by large-scale farms and an increasing focus on sustainable and organic production methods. They are also using herd testing for effective herd management and decision-making, regulatory frameworks for biosecurity requirements, and greenhouse gases emission reductions through strategies such as the improvement of feed efficiency and manure management. Despite their advanced dairy sector, Asian countries still need to focus on addressing environmental concerns of intensive farming and price volatility while optimizing production efficiency. Specific challenges in western dairying, such as fluctuating milk prices, may not affect the financial stability of dairy farmers in Asia. Additionally, rising costs of labor and feed that impact profitability may be mitigated if western best practices are adopted in Asia, given the population growth and high food demand.

Sustainability of dairy production

Enhancing food production without compromising a healthy agro-ecosystem has become an increasingly global challenge. Sustainable livestock farming practices have the potential to improve productivity and income, reduce greenhouse gases, and improve household food security (Feyissa et al., Reference Feyissa, Senbeta, Tolera and Guta2023). Sustainability in dairy production is important and consists of social, economic, and environmental aspects. As indicated in Fig. 2, dairy farm sustainability is viewed as nested within agricultural sustainability, food system sustainability, and the national commitment of a country to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs). The sustainability of dairy farming, which itself is a subset of the sustainability of the food systems, could in turn be construed as a subset of the national commitments of a country to achieve the SDGs. Indicators of sustainability must differ at each level (Wattiaux, Reference Wattiaux2023).

Source: (Wattiaux (Reference Wattiaux2023)).

Figure 2. Dairy farm sustainability viewed as sustainable development goals.

Economically, dairy production contributes to the GDP of countries, and it is a major industry with a significant market share globally. However, challenges such as fluctuating milk prices, rising production costs, and changing consumer preferences can impact the economic sustainability of dairy farming in both types of economies. In terms of social sustainability, dairy production plays a significant role in providing livelihoods for farmers and supporting rural communities. In developing countries, dairy farming can be a source of income for small-scale farmers, helping to alleviate poverty and improve food security (Munyaneza Celestin, 2018). Although the same general principles of sustainability apply to milk production all over the world, attention is placed on distinct economic, social, and environmental issues in high-, mid, and low-income countries. For example, animal welfare and environmental impacts on air and water are increasingly critical in high-income countries, whereas many low-income countries face high rates of childhood undernutrition and stunting, with long-term negative implications on health and socioeconomic development. Some of these low-income countries also have substantial livestock resources that, if sustainably intensified, could promote milk production and consumption to improve the nutrition, health, incomes, and livelihoods of the poor (Tricarico et al., Reference Tricarico, Kebreab and Wattiaux2020).

The roles and the social standing associated with animal ownership may incentivize the maintenance of large herds that place stress on feed (land) and water resources. Under these circumstances, sustainable intensification (i.e., increasing milk production from currently available resources) represents the single most important and practical strategy to improve the sustainability of milk production and consumption in low-income countries (Tricarico et al., Reference Tricarico, Kebreab and Wattiaux2020). The same authors reported that the greatest potential reduction of methane intensity occurred in Africa followed by South America and Asia (55, 46 and 34%, respectively). However, nitrous oxide emissions were likely to increase by 21% due to diet amendment but a decrease in methane emissions from manure management was predicted. Similarly, Pressman et al. (Reference Pressman, Schaefer and Kebreab2018) evaluated the GHG mitigation potential of improving the feed quality of crop residues such as corn and wheat stover, and teff (a lovegrass species: Eragrostis tef) and barley straw in East Africa. The authors reported that although there was an increase in nitrous oxide emissions, the net GHG reduction in emission intensity was 0.63 kg of CO2-eq/kg of milk per year (27.6% decrease) in Kenya and 0.82 kg of CO2- eq/kg of milk per year (31.3% decrease) in Ethiopia. They also observed an increase in milk production of about 33%. The above studies agree that, in general, an increase in productivity of dairy cattle might be an effective way of reducing GHG emission intensity in low-income countries.

For dairy farmers, climate change is a real and present concern, resulting in reduced quantity and quality of feed and water availability which subsequently negatively affect growth, milk production, health and reproduction (Rojas-Downing et al., Reference Rojas-Downing, Nejadhashemi and Harrigan2017). Therefore, dairy farmers need to implement a climate-smart livestock system, which is a sustainable livestock farming system that perfectly supports climate change adaptation and mitigation activities, food security, sustainable income, animal welfare, and the environmental impact (Kadzere, Reference Kadzere2018; FAO, 2021). Efforts have been made to improve sustainability, but the improvement is hindered by lack of knowledge on how to ensure the sustainability of the production systems particularly at the farm level (Munyaneza Celestin, 2018). To ensure the sustainability of dairy production, it is crucial to adopt innovative technologies, promote responsible farming practices, and support policies that balance economic viability with social and environmental considerations. Collaboration between stakeholders (including farmers, policymakers, researchers and consumers) is key to achieving a more sustainable dairy industry globally.

Wattiaux (Reference Wattiaux2023) pointed out that the concerns of the dairy research community for sustainability and the SDGs are still at an early stage and more needs to be done. A diversity of research approaches should be employed at various scales to foster the co-existence of diverse dairy systems that contribute to the sustainability of agriculture and food systems within national priorities to achieve the SDGs. The future of dairy production in both developing and developed countries will be shaped by advancements in technology, sustainability practices, and changing consumer preferences.