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The Demographics of Labour Turnover: A Comparison of Ordinal Probit and Censored Count Data Models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Lucie Merkle  and
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Lucie Merkle
Affiliation:
Universität München
Klaus F. Zimmermann
Affiliation:
Universität München & CEPR, London
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Summary

As has been found in previous studies, the labor market performance of individuals is often affected by demographic determinants like cohort size, age, marriage status and family size. While most of this analysis was studied for earnings, the paper investigates the issue for labor mobility. Mobility is measured here by the number of new employers and the frequency of unemployment of an individual in a particular period. Given the discrete nature of the data, the ordinal probit model and the censored Poisson as the censored negative binomial model was estimated. Since the choice of the statistical model is not clear a priori, various model comparisons are carried out and some new pseudo-R2 measures are proposed and used in the analysis. Results indicate that demographic determinants matter for labor mobility.

Résumé

Résumé

Il est bien connu que la performance des individus sur le marché du travail est souvent affectée par des déterminants démographiques tels que la taille de la cohorte, l'âge, l'état civil et la taille de la famille. Alors que la plupart des études se sont intéressées aux rémunérations, cet article se concentre sur le problème de la mobilité des travailleurs. Celle-ci est mesurée ici par le nombre d'employeurs et la fréquence des périodes de chômage sur un intervalle de temps donné. Étant donné la nature discrète des données, on a estimé le modèle probit ordinal avec une distribution de Poisson tronquée à la place du modèle à distribution binomiale négative tronquée. Comme le choix d'un modèle n'est pas évident à priori, de nombreuses comparaisons de modèles différents ont été effectués et de nouvelles mesures du pseudo R2 proposées. Les résultats indiquent que les déterminants démographiques influencent la mobilité du travail.

Keywords

C25J60C25J60
Type
Part I: Labour Demand and Supply
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 58 , Issue 3-4: Output and Employment Fluctuations , 1992 , pp. 283 - 306
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1992 

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Footnotes

(*)

Financial support from the German Science Foundation (DFG) is gratefully acknowledged. Preliminary versions of this paper were presented at the 1990 meeting of the European Society for Population Economics (ESPE) in Istanbul, and in seminars given in the University of Amsterdam and in the Section Population Economics of the German Economic Association. We wish to thank seminar participants and Anders M. Klevmarken, Christoph M. Schmidt and Rainer Winkelmann as the referees for valuable comments. The study has also benefited from the second author's visit to CentER, Tilburg University, in 1990.

References

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