Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-b6zl4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-04T12:57:44.321Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Climate change and social vicissitudes in China over the past two millennia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Jun Yin ,
Yun Su  and
Xiuqi Fang
Jun Yin
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, PR China School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xin Jie Kou Wai Street, Haidian District, Beijing, 100875, PR China
Yun Su*
Affiliation:
School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xin Jie Kou Wai Street, Haidian District, Beijing, 100875, PR China
Xiuqi Fang
Affiliation:
School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xin Jie Kou Wai Street, Haidian District, Beijing, 100875, PR China
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail addresses:, yinjun@mail.bnu.edu.cn(J. Yin), suyun@bnu.edu.cn(Y. Su), xfang@bnu.edu.cn(X. Fang)
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The relation between climate change and historical rhythms has long been discussed. However, this type of study still faces the lack of high-resolution data concerning long-term socio-economic processes. In this study, we collected 1586 items of direct and proffered evidence from 29 Chinese history books. We used semantic analysis to reconstruct a quantitative series of the social vicissitudes of the past 2000 yr with a 10-yr resolution to express the phase transition of the social vicissitudes of the dynasties in China. Our reconstruction demonstrates that social vicissitudes have clear cyclical features on multiple time scales. Analysis of the association of social rise and fall with climate change indicates that temperature displayed more significant effects on social vicissitudes in the long term, while precipitation displayed more significant effects on the social vicissitudes in the short term. There are great overlaps between social and climatic variables around the predominant or periodic bands. Social rise mostly occurred in the centennial-scale warm periods, whereas social decline mostly occurred in the centennial-scale cold periods. Under warm-wet conditions, social rise occurred over 57% of the time; under cold-dry conditions, the social decline occurred over 66% of the time.

Keywords

Climate changeSemantic Differential techniqueQuantitative seriesSocial rise and fallPast two millenniaChina
Type
Research Article
Information
Quaternary Research , Volume 86 , Issue 2 , September 2016 , pp. 133 - 143
Copyright
Copyright © American Quaternary Association 2016

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Amorosi, A., Bini, M., Giacomelli, S., et al., 2013. Middle to late Holocene environmental evolution of the Pisa coastal plain (Tuscany, Italy) and early human settlements. Quaternary International 33, 93–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bai, S.Y., 1989–1999. The General History of China. Shanghai People’s Publishing House, Shanghai.Google Scholar
Büntgen, U., Tegel, W., Nicolussi, K., et al., 2011. 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science 331 (6017), 578–582.Google Scholar
Chen, M.G., 1991. The New Financial History of the Tang Dynasty. China Financial and Economic Publishing House, Beijing.Google Scholar
Cheng, Hai, Edwards, R.L., Haug, G.H., 2010. Comment on “On linking climate to Chinese dynastic change: spatial and temporal variations of monsoonal rain”. Chinese Science Bulletin 55 (32), 3734–3737. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4122-3.Google Scholar
Christiansen, B., Charpentier Ljungqvist, F., 2012. The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low frequency variability. Climates of the Past 8 (2), 765–786.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chu, K.C., 1973. The preliminary research on climate change in China of past five thousand years. Science China (Ser A) 2, 15–38.Google Scholar
Chull, H.C., Choon, K.R., Kang, H.O., 2014. Late Holocene climate change and human impact inferred from the pollen record, Haman area, southern Korea. Quaternary International 344, 4–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.04.012.Google Scholar
CMA, 1981. Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-Year Period. Sinomaps Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Costanza, R., Graumlich, L., Steffen, W., et al., 2007. Sustainability or collapse: what can we learn from integrating the history of humans and the rest of nature? AMBIO 36, 522–527.Google Scholar
Crowley, T.J., Lowery, T.S., 2000. How warm was the medieval warm period? AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 29, 51–54.Google Scholar
De Menocal, P.B., 2001. Cultural responses to climate change during the Late Holocene. Science 292 (5517), 667–673.Google Scholar
Dybdahl, A., 2012. Climate and demographic crises in Norway in medieval and early modern times. The Holocene 22, 1159–1167.Google Scholar
Fan, K.W., 2010. Climatic change and dynastic cycles in Chinese history: a review essay. Climate Change 101 (3-4), 565–573.Google Scholar
Fan, W.L., Mei, B.C., 1994. The General History of China. People’s Publishing House, Beijing.Google Scholar
Fang, X.Q., Su, Y., Yin, J., et al., 2014. Methodology for quantifying social and economic series on the base of Semantic Differential to serve the research on impacts of climate change. Quaternary Science 34 (6), 1204–1214.Google Scholar
Fang, X.Q., Su, Y., Yin, J., et al., 2015. Transmission of climate change impacts from temperature change to grain harvests, famines and peasant uprisings in the historical China. Science China: Earth Sciences 58, 1427–1439. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11430-015-5075-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fang, X.Q., Xiao, L.B., Wei, Z.D., 2013. Social impacts of the climatic shift around the turn of the 19th century on the North China plain. Science China Earth Sciences 56, 1044–1058.Google Scholar
Fu, L.C., 2010. The General History of China. Guizhou Education Press, Guiyang.Google Scholar
Fu, Z.F., 1981–1989. The Feudal Social and Economic History of China. People’s Publishing House, Beijing.Google Scholar
Galloway, P.R., 1986. Long-term fluctuations in climate and population in the pre-industrial era. Population and Development Review 12, 1–24.Google Scholar
Ge, Q.S., Hao, Z.X., Zheng, J.Y., et al., 2013b. Temperature changes over the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere. Climate of the Past 9, 1153–1160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ge, Q.S., Liu, H.L., Zheng, J.Y., et al., 2013a. The climate change and social development over the last two millennia in China. Chinese Journal of Nature 35 (1), 9–21.Google Scholar
Ge, Q.S., Zheng, J.Y., Hao, Z.X., et al., 2010. Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: an uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L03703. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041281.Google Scholar
Ge, Q.S., 2011. Climate Change through Ancient Chinese Dynasty. science press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Haug, G.H., Günther, D., Peterson, L.C., et al., 2003. Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization. Science 299 (5613), 1731–1735.Google Scholar
Hsiang, S.M., Burke, M., Miguel, E., 2013. Quantifying the influence of Climate on human conflict. Science 341 (6151). http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1235367.Google Scholar
Huang, T.H., 1999. Outline of Chinese Financial History. Shanghai University of Finance and Economic Press, Shanghai.Google Scholar
IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Issar, A.S., Zohar, M., 2007. Climate Change: Environment and History of the Near East. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jian, B.Z., Shao, X.Z., Hua, H., 2009. A Concise History of China. Peking University Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Jiang, F.Y., 2004. Social and Economic History of the Wei, Jin and Southern and Northern Dynasties. Tianjin Ancient Books Publishing House, Tianjin.Google Scholar
Lamb, H.H., 1995. Climate, History and Modern World, second ed. Routledge, London.Google Scholar
Lee, H.F., Zhang, D.D., 2010. Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911. Climate Research 42, 235–246.Google Scholar
Li, H.L., 1991. Chinese Peasants’ Burden History. China Financial Economic Publishing House, Beijing.Google Scholar
Li, L.Q., 1988. Economic History of the Ming and Qing Dynasties. Guangdong Higher Education Press, Guangzhou.Google Scholar
Loehle, C., McCulloch, J.H., 2008. Correction to: a 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies. Energy Environment 19 (1), 93–100.Google Scholar
Lv, S.M., 2005. The General History of China. East China Normal University Press, Shanghai.Google Scholar
Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z.H., Rutherford, S., et al., 2009. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little Ice Age and medieval climate anomaly. Science 326, 1256–1260.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nunn, P., Hunter-Anderson, R., Carson, M., et al., 2007. Times of plenty, times of less: last-millennium societal disruption in the Pacific basin. Human Ecology 35, 385–401.Google Scholar
Osgood, C.E., 1957. The Measurement of Meaning. University of Illinois Press, Champaign, IL.Google Scholar
PAGES, 2009. Science Plan and Implementation Strategy (IGBP Report No. 57). IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm.Google Scholar
Pei, Q., Zhang, D.D., Lee, H.F., et al., 2014. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial Europe. PLoS One 9, e88155.Google Scholar
Peng, X.W., 2007. Chinese Monetary History. Shanghai People’s Publishing House, Shanghai.Google Scholar
Shi, Z.W., Xiao, L.H., 1994. The General History of China, Economic, vol. 10. China Book Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Solomon, S., 2007. Climate Change 2007-the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, vol. 4. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Su, Y., Fang, X.Q., Yin, J., 2014. Impact of climate change on fluctuations of grain harvests in China from the western Han Dynasty to the five dynasties (206 BC-960 AD). Science China: Earth Sciences 57 (1), 1–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sun, W.X., Qi, H.P., 2008. Chinese Financial History. Dongbei University of Finance and Economics Press, Dalian.Google Scholar
Tan, L., Cai, Y., An, Z., et al., 2011. Climate patterns in north central China during the last 1800 yr and their possible driving force. Climate of the Past 7, 685–692.Google Scholar
Tan, M., Liu, T., Hou, J., et al., 2003. Cyclic rapid warming on centennial-scale revealed by a 2650-year stalagmite record of warm season temperature. Geophysical Research Letters 30, 1617–1626.Google Scholar
Tol, R.S.J., Wagner, S., 2010. Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium. Climatic Change 99, 65–79.Google Scholar
Twitchett, D.C., Fairbank, J.K., 1978–2009. The Cambridge History of China, vol. 15. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Wang, J.Y., 2007. Modern Chinese Economic History (1895-1927). Economic Management Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Wei, Z., Fang, X., Su, Y., 2014. Climate change and fiscal balance in China over the past two millenniums. The Holocene 24 (12), 1771–1784.Google Scholar
Wei, Z., Rosen, A.M., Fang, X., et al., 2015. Macro-economic cycles related to climate change in dynastic China. Quaternary Research 83 (01), 13–23.Google Scholar
Weiss, H., Bradley, R.S., 2001. What drives societal collapse? Science 291, 609–610.Google Scholar
Welc, F., Marks, L., 2014. Climate change at the end of the Old Kingdom in Egypt around 4200 BP: new geoarchaeological evidence. Quaternary International 324, 124–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xiang, H.C., 2006. The General History of Chinese Finance Beijing. China Financial and Economic Publishing House.Google Scholar
Xiao, L.B., Fang, X.Q., Zheng, J.Y., et al., 2015. Famine, migration and war: comparison of climate change impacts and social responses in North China between the late Ming and late Qing dynasties. The Holocene 25 (6), 900–910. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683615572851.Google Scholar
Yan, Z.P., 1989. Modern Chinese Economic History. People’s Publishing House, Beijing.Google Scholar
Yancheva, G., Nowaczyk, N.R., Mingram, J., et al., 2007a. Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon. Nature 445 (7123), 74–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature 05431.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Yancheva, G., Nowaczyk, N.R., Mingram, J., et al., 2007b. Yancheva et al. reply. Nature 450 (7168), E8–E9.Google Scholar
Yang, B., Braeuning, A., Johnson, K.R., et al., 2002. General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters 29, 38-1-38-4.Google Scholar
Yin, J., Su, Y., Fang, X.Q., 2015. Relationships between temperature change and grain harvest fluctuations in China from 210 BC to 1910 AD. Quaternary International 355, 153–163.Google Scholar
Zhang, C.X., 1991. The General History of Ancient China. Peking University Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Zhang, D.E., Li, H.C., Ku, T.L., et al., 2010a. On linking climate to Chinese dynastic change: spatial and temporal variations of monsoonal rain. Chinese Science Bulletin 55 (1), 60–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-009-0584-6.Google Scholar
Zhang, D.E., Li, H.C., Ku, T.L., et al., 2010b. Reply to the comment of Cheng, et al. Chinese Science Bulletin 55 (32), 3738–3740. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4137-9.Google Scholar
Zhang, D.E., Lu, L.H., 2007. Anti-correlation of summer and winter monsoons? Nature 450 (7168), E7–E8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature06338.Google Scholar
Zhang, D.E., 2008. Query the validity of the monsoon led to the collapse of the Tang dynasty by the chinese historical climate records. Advances in Climate Change Research 4 (2), 126–130.Google Scholar
Zhang, D.D., Brecke, P., Lee, H.F., et al., 2007. Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (49), 19214–19219.Google Scholar
Zhang, D.D., Lee, H.F., Wang, C., et al., 2011. The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108, 17296–17301.Google Scholar
Zhang, D.D., Pei, Q., Lee, H.F., et al., 2015. The pulse of imperial China: a quantitative analysis of long-term geopolitical and climatic cycles. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24 (1), 87–96.Google Scholar
Zhang, J.C., 1988. The Reconstruction of Climate in China for Historical Times. Science Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Zhang, P.Y., 1996a. Climate Change in Chinese History. Shandong Science and Technology Press, Jinan.Google Scholar
Zhang, P.Y., 1996b. Climate Changes in China During Historical Times. Shandong Science and Technology Press, Ji’nan, pp. 198–274.Google Scholar
Zhang, P.Z., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., et al., 2008. A test of climate, Sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year chinese cave record. Science 322 (5903), 940–942.Google Scholar
Zhang, Q.Z., 2001. Chinese History, vol. 4. Higher Education Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Zhao, D.X., 2002. The General History of Chinese Economy. Hunan People’s Publishing House, Changsha.Google Scholar
Zheng, J.Y., Wang, W.C., Ge, Q.S., et al., 2006. Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 17, 579–592.Google Scholar
Zheng, J.Y., Xiao, L.B., Fang, X.Q., 2014. How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty. Climatic Change 127 (2), 169–182.Google Scholar
Zhou, B.D., 1981. Chinese Financial History. Shanghai People’s Publishing House, Shanghai.Google Scholar
Zhou, Z.Q., 2007. The General History of Chinese Economy. Economic Daily Press, Beijing.Google Scholar
Zhu, B.K., Zheng, K.S., 1995. The General History of Chinese Economy. China Social Sciences Press, Beijing.Google Scholar