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When Good Forecasts Go Bad: The Time-for-Change Model and the 2004 Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 October 2004

Alan I. Abramowitz
Alan I. Abramowitz
Affiliation:
Emory University
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Extract

Despite mediocre approval ratings and below average economic growth, George W. Bush has a good chance of winning a second term in the White House according to the time-forchange forecasting model.

Information

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 37 , Issue 4 , October 2004 , pp. 745 - 746
Copyright
© 2004 by the American Political Science Association

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References

Abramowitz Alan I. 1988. “An Improved Model for Predicting Presidential Election Outcomes.” PS: Political Science and Politics 21 (December): 843– 847.Google Scholar
Abramowitz Alan I. 1996. “Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure: Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 434– 442.Google Scholar
Abramowitz Alan I. 2001. “The Time for Change Model and the 2000 Election.” American Politics Quarterly 29: 279– 282.Google Scholar
Campbell James E., and James C. Garand, eds. 1999. Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar