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Numerical Short-Term Solar Activity Forecasting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

Huaning Wang ,
Yihua Yan ,
Han He Open the ORCID record for Han He [Opens in a new window] ,
Xin Huang ,
Xinghua Dai ,
Xiaoshuai Zhu ,
Zhanle Du ,
Hui Zhao  and
Yan Yan
Huaning Wang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yihua Yan
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Han He
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Xin Huang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Xinghua Dai
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Xiaoshuai Zhu
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Zhanle Du
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Hui Zhao
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Yan Yan
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
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Abstract

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It is well known that the energy for solar eruptions comes from magnetic fields in solar active regions. Magnetic energy storage and dissipation are regarded as important physical processes in the solar corona. With incomplete theoretical modeling for eruptions in the solar atmosphere, activity forecasting is mainly supported with statistical models. Solar observations with high temporal and spatial resolution continuously from space well describe the evolution of activities in the solar atmosphere, and combined with three dimensional reconstruction of solar magnetic fields, makes numerical short-term (within hours to days) solar activity forecasting possible. In the current report, we propose the erupting frequency and main attack direction of solar eruptions as new forecasts and present the prospects for numerical short-term solar activity forecasting based on the magnetic topological framework in solar active regions.

Keywords

solar activitymagnetic fieldforecast
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 13 , Symposium S335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts , July 2017 , pp. 243 - 249
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

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