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In defense of a divided opposition: programmatic distribution and ethnic minor party support

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 October 2020

Elizabeth Carlson Open the ORCID record for Elizabeth Carlson [Opens in a new window]
Elizabeth Carlson*
Affiliation:
Political Science, North Dakota State University, North Dakota, USA
*
Corresponding author. Email: ecc13@psu.edu
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Abstract

Why do so many voters in African countries vote for minor ethnic parties instead of unifying into a powerful multi-ethnic opposition coalition? I present a model that demonstrates that as the incumbent devotes more resources to programmatic goods, which voters can access regardless of how they voted, the opportunity cost of voting for a sincerely preferred, but losing, candidate decreases. I provide experimental and cross-national observational evidence that voters are more likely to support a minor party as they perceive more or more valuable goods being distributed programmatically. Those who perceive poor distribution, or only clientelist distribution, instead vote strategically for a major opposition party. In general, support for minor parties increases along with positive outcomes and approval of the incumbent.

Keywords

African politicscomparative political economycomparative politics: political behaviorempirical implcations of theoretical modelsexperimental research
Type
Original Article
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 9 , Issue 4 , October 2021 , pp. 745 - 759
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the European Political Science Association

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Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VGZHYO
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