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A Simple Multivariate Test for Asymmetric Hypotheses

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2017

William Roberts Clark ,
Michael J. Gilligan  and
Matt Golder
William Roberts Clark
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science and the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan, ISR 4202 Box 1248, 426 Thompson Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248. e-mail: wrclark@umich.edu (corresponding author)
Michael J. Gilligan
Affiliation:
Department of Politics, New York University, 7th Floor, 726 Broadway, New York, NY 10003. e-mail: michael.gilligan@nyu.edu
Matt Golder
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Florida State University, 531 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2230. e-mail: mgolder@fsu.edu
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Abstract

In this paper, we argue that claims of necessity and sufficiency involve a type of asymmetric causal claim that is useful in many social scientific contexts. Contrary to some qualitative researchers, we maintain that there is nothing about such asymmetries that should lead scholars to depart from standard social science practice. We take as given that deterministic and monocausal tests are inappropriate in the social world and demonstrate that standard multiplicative interaction models are up to the task of handling asymmetric causal claims in a multivariate, probabilistic manner. We illustrate our argument with examples from the empirical literature linking electoral institutions and party system size.

Type
Research Article
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 14 , Issue 3: Special Issue on Causal Complexity and Qualitative Methods , Summer 2006 , pp. 311 - 331
Copyright
Copyright © The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology 

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