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Concurrent sequences of Bernoulli trials

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 October 2020

Stephen Kaczkowski
Stephen Kaczkowski*
Affiliation:
South Carolina Governor's School, 401 Railroad Avenue, Hartsville, SC 29550 USA e-mail: kaczkowski@gssm.k12.sc.us
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Extract

Probability and expectation are two distinct measures, both of which can be used to indicate the likelihood of certain events. However, expectation values, which are often associated with waiting times for success, may, at times, speak more clearly and poignantly about the uncertainty of an event than a theoretical probability. To illustrate the point, suppose the probability of choosing a winning lottery ticket is 2.5 × 10−8. This information may not communicate the unlikely odds of winning as clearly as a statement like, “If five lottery tickets are purchased per day, the expected waiting time for a first win is about 22000 years.”

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Articles
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The Mathematical Gazette , Volume 104 , Issue 561 , November 2020 , pp. 435 - 448
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© Mathematical Association 2020

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