Hostname: page-component-5b777bbd6c-7mr9c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-06-18T21:13:11.203Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

White Power! How White Status Threat Undercuts Backlash Against Anti-democratic Politicians

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 March 2025

Kiara A. Hernandez*
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Taeku Lee
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Marcel F. Roman
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
*
Corresponding author: Kiara A. Hernandez; Email: khernandez@g.harvard.edu
Get access

Abstract

Prior research shows that the pro-Trump, anti-democratic January 6th insurrection (J6) led to a short-term reduction in Republican support for President Trump. However, it remains unclear why the anti-Trump backlash occurred among his electoral base. We theorize that white Republicans concerned about the declining status of Anglo whites in the American ethno-racial hierarchy were the least likely to backlash against Trump after J6. Leveraging an unexpected-event-during-survey design (UESD) and a large survey fielded shortly before and after J6, we find no difference in support for Trump due to J6 among white Republicans who strongly perceived anti-white discrimination (Study 1). We replicate this result with another UESD with a separate survey fielded during J6 (Study 2) and a difference-in-differences approach with additional panel surveys fielded around J6 (Study 3). Moreover, across four cross-sectional surveys, we find the negative relationship between J6 disapproval and Trump support post-J6 between 2021 and 2024 is attenuated among status-threatened white Republicans (Studies 4–7). Our evidence suggests racial status threat undercuts the ability of the white Republican mass public to hold co-partisan anti-democratic elites accountable for norm violations.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The Race, Ethnicity, and Politics Section of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Agadjanian, A et al. (2023) Disfavor or favor? Assessing the valence of White Americans’ racial attitudes. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 18, 75103.10.1561/100.00021119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Albertus, M and Grossman, G (2021) The Americas: when do voters support power grabs? Journal of Democracy 32, 116131.10.1353/jod.2021.0023CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Almond, GA and Verba, S (1963) The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arceneaux, K and Nicholson, SP (2012) Who wants to have a tea party? The who, what, and why of the tea party movement. PS: Political Science & Politics 45, 700710.Google Scholar
Armaly, MT, Buckley, DT and Enders, AM (2022) Christian nationalism and political violence: victimhood, racial identity, conspiracy, and support for the Capitol attacks. Political Behavior 44, 937960.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Armaly, MT and Enders, AM (2024) Who supports political violence? Perspectives on Politics 22, 427444.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barreto, M et al. (2011) The tea party in the age of Obama: mainstream conservatism or out-group anxiety? Political Power and Social Theory 22, 105137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barreto, MA et al. (2023) Black lives matter and the racialized support for the January 6th insurrection. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 708, 6482.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, J et al. (2022) Who will defend democracy? Evaluating tradeoffs in candidate support among partisan donors and voters. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 32, 230245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Center, Pew Research (2018) For Most Trump Voters, ‘Very Warm’ Feelings for Him Endured. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center.Google Scholar
Davis, DW (2007) Negative Liberty: Public Opinion and the Terrorist Attacks on America. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
DeSante, CD and Smith, CW (2020) Fear, institutionalized racism, and empathy: the underlying dimensions of whites’ racial attitudes. PS: Political Science & Politics 53, 639645.Google Scholar
Eady, G, Hjorth, F and Dinesen, PT (2023) Do violent protests affect expressions of party identity? Evidence from the Capitol insurrection. American Political Science Review 117, 11511157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edsall, TB and Edsall, MD (1992) Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race Rights and Taxes on American Politics. New York, NY: WW Norton & Company.Google Scholar
Enos, RD and Celaya, C (2018) The effect of segregation on intergroup relations. Journal of Experimental Political Science 5, 2638.10.1017/XPS.2017.28CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enos, RD, Kaufman, AR and Sands, ML (2019) Can violent protest change local policy support? Evidence from the aftermath of the 1992 Los Angeles Riot. American Political Science Review 113, 10121028.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fabian, M, Breunig, R and De Neve, J-E (2020) Bowling with Trump: Economic Anxiety, Racial Identification, and Well-Being in the 2016 Presidential Election. Tech. rep. IZA Discussion Papers.Google Scholar
Fiske, ST (2000) Stereotyping, prejudice, and discrimination at the seam between the centuries: evolution, culture, mind, and brain. European Journal of Social Psychology 30, 299322.3.0.CO;2-F>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frye, T (2023) Do violations of democratic norms change political attitudes? Evidence from the January 6th Insurrection. American Politics Research 51(1), 313.Google Scholar
Glenn, BJ and Teles (2009) Conservatism and American Political Development. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graham, MH and Svolik, MW (2020) Democracy in America? Partisanship, polarization, and the robustness of support for democracy in the United States. American Political Science Review 114, 392409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hofstadter, R (1967) The Paranoid Style in American Politics: And Other Essays. New York, NY: Vintage Books.Google Scholar
Inglehart, R and Norris, P (2017) Trump and the populist authoritarian parties: the silent revolution in reverse. Perspectives on Politics 15, 443454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, S and Westwood, SJ (2015) Fear and loathing across party lines: new evidence on group polarization. American Journal of Political Science 59(3), 690707.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, S et al. (2019) The origins and consequences of affective polarization in the United States. Annual Review of Political Science 22, 129146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, GC (2020) Donald Trump and the parties: impeachment, pandemic, protest, and electoral politics in 2020. Presidential Studies Quarterly 50, 762795.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jardina, A (2019) White Identity Politics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Justwan, F and Williamson, RD (2022) Trump and trust: examining the relationship between claims of fraud and citizen attitudes. PS: Political Science & Politics 55, 462469.Google Scholar
Keeter, S (2021) How we know the drop in Trump’s approval rating in January reflected a real shift in public opinion. Pew Research. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/01/20/how-we-know-the-drop-in-trumps-approval-ratinginjanuary-reflected-a-real-shift-in-public-opinion/ Google Scholar
Kelley-Romano, S and Carew, KL (2019) Make America hate again: Donald Trump and the Birther conspiracy. Journal of Hate Studies 14, 3352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinder, DR and Kam, CD (2010) Us Against Them: Ethnocentric Foundations of American Opinion. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Krekó, P (2021) Populism in power: the tribal challenge. In Forgas, J et al. (eds), The Psychology of Populism: The Tribal Challenge to Liberal Democracy. New York: Routledge, pp. 240257.10.4324/9781003057680-16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lajevardi, N and Oskooii, KAR (2018) Old-fashioned racism, contemporary islamophobia, and the isolation of Muslim Americans in the age of Trump. Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics 3, 112152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loving, S and Smith, DA (2024) Riot in the party? Voter registrations in the aftermath of the January 6, 2021 capitol insurrection. Party Politics 30, 209222.10.1177/13540688221147666CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maier, M et al. (2023) Implicit and explicit populist and anti-immigrant attitudes and their explanatory power for populist radical-right party support. Acta Politica 58, 591613.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, L (2015) “I Disrespectfully Agree”: the differential effects of partisan sorting on social and issue polarization. American Journal of Political Science 59(2), 528542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, L (2018) Uncivil Agreement: How Politics Became Our Identity. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226524689.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, L, Wronski, J and Kane, JV (2021) Activating animus: the uniquely social roots of Trump support. The American Political Science Review 115, 15081516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, K and Shapiro, I (2024) On fertile ground: how racial resentment primes White Americans to believe fraud accusations. Working Paper.10.2139/ssrn.4976524CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muñoz, Jordi, Falcó-Gimeno, A and Hernández, E (2020). Unexpected event during survey design: promise and pitfalls for causal inference. Political Analysis 28, 186206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, DC (2018) Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, E4330E4339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Noort van, S (2023) How does American public opinion react to overt anti-democratic behavior by politicians? Quasi-experimental evidence from the January 6 insurrection. Electoral Studies 86, 102710.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Obaidi, M et al. (2022) The “Great Replacement conspiracy: how the perceived ousting of Whites can evoke violent extremism and Islamophobia. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 25, 16751695.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, BI and Shapiro, RY (2010) The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans’ Policy Preferences. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Parker, A and Eder, S (2016) Inside the six weeks Donald Trump was a nonstop ‘Birther’. The New York Times.Google Scholar
Parker, CS and Barreto, MA (2014) Change They Can’t Believe In: The Tea Party and Reactionary Politics in America. Updated edition with a New Afterword by the authors. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Piazza, JA (2022) Sore losers: does terrorism and approval of terrorism increase in democracies when election losers refuse to accept election results? Political Research Quarterly 75, 12011215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piazza, JA (2024a) Demographic change threat, preference for nondemocratic governance, and support for political violence. Social Science Quarterly n/a, 117.Google Scholar
Piazza, JA (2024b) Populism and support for political violence in the United States: assessing the role of grievances, distrust of political institutions, social change threat, and political illiberalism. Political Research Quarterly 77, 152166.10.1177/10659129231198248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saikkonen, IA-L and Christensen, HS (2023) Guardians of democracy or passive bystanders? A conjoint experiment on elite transgressions of democratic norms. Political Research Quarterly 76, 127142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwartz, JM (2008) The Future of Democratic Equality: Rebuilding Social Solidarity in a Fragmented America. New York, NY: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scoggins, B (2022) When are democracies at risk of democratic decline? A meta-analysis of the experimental literature and a conceptual replication. PsyArXiv.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sears, DO, Hensler, CP and Speer, LK (1979) Whites’ opposition to “Busing”: self-interest or symbolic politics? American Political Science Review 73, 369384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sidanius, J and Pratto, F (2001) Social Dominance: An Intergroup Theory of Social Hierarchy and Oppression. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sides, J, Tesler, M and Vavreck, L (2019) Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sniderman, PM and Piazza, T (1993) The Scar of Race. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, MW (2020) When polarization Trumps civic virtue: partisan conflict and the subversion of democracy by incumbents. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 15, 331.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tausanovitch, C et al. (2019) Democracy fund+ UCLA nationscape methodology and representativeness assessment. Democracy Fund Voter Study Group. Retrieved from https://www.voterstudygroup.org/uploads/reports/Data/NS-Methodology-Representativeness-Assessment.pdf Google Scholar
Tesler, M (2012) The spillover of racialization into health care: how President Obama polarized public opinion by racial attitudes and race. American Journal of Political Science 56, 690704.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, A (2022) The partisan utility of racial demographic change and democratic backsliding in the American public. APSA Preprints. doi: 10.33774/apsa-2022-544lb.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wasow, O (2020) Agenda seeding: how 1960s Black protests moved elites, public opinion and voting. American Political Science Review 114, 638659.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weingast, B (1997) The political foundations of democracy and the rule of law. American Political Science Review 91, 245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkins, CL and Kaiser, CR (2014) Racial progress as threat to the status hierarchy: implications for perceptions of anti-White bias. Psychological Science 25, 439446.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williamson, V, Skocpol, T and Coggin, J (2011) The tea party and the remaking of republican conservatism. Perspectives on Politics 9, 2543.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Hernandez et al. supplementary material 1

Hernandez et al. supplementary material
Download Hernandez et al. supplementary material 1(File)
File 4.4 MB
Supplementary material: File

Hernandez et al. supplementary material 2

Hernandez et al. supplementary material
Download Hernandez et al. supplementary material 2(File)
File 1.9 MB