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Modelling Navigational Risk and Oil Spill Probabilities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2009

Tony K. S. Quon  and
George E. Bushell
Tony K. S. Quon
Affiliation:
(University of Ottawa)
George E. Bushell
Affiliation:
(Consulting and Audit Canada)
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Abstract

This paper examines first a statistical modelling of the number of navigational accidents (collisons, groundings and strikings) involving tankers and freighters in Canadian waters; it then looks at a direct method of modelling oil spill frequency and magnitude, given a navigational accident. The former is used to examine various hypotheses in the literature regarding the impact of various factors on navigational risk. The latter is based on a direct probability tree analysis which allows the estimation of detailed oil spill impacts by facilitating the examination of representative spill sizes.

Keywords

1. Risk analysis2. Collisions3. Groundings4. Strikings5. Pollution.

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Navigation , Volume 47 , Issue 3 , September 1994 , pp. 390 - 402
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Navigation 1994

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References

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