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Conservancies, rainfall anomalies and communal violence: subnational evidence from East Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 June 2023

Alfonso Sánchez Open the ORCID record for Alfonso Sánchez [Opens in a new window] ,
Alvaro Fernandez  and
Juan B. González
Alfonso Sánchez*
Affiliation:
Departamento de Estudios Internacionales, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Avda. De las Universidades, s/n Dos Hermanas, Sevilla, España, 41704
Alvaro Fernandez*
Affiliation:
Department of Earth Sciences and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Realfagbygget, Allégt. 41, 5020 Bergen, Norway
Juan B. González*
Affiliation:
Paris School of Economics, 48 Boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, France
*
Email: asanchezc@uloyola.es
Email: alvaro.bremer@csic.es
Email: Juan-Bautista.Gonzalez-Blanco@etu.univ-paris1.fr
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Abstract

Are conservancies hotspots for communal violence and if so, do rainfall anomalies increase the likelihood of violence? The consensus from a rich number of case studies suggests that conservancies (e.g. national parks, game reserves) increase tensions between communities, which often lead to violent conflicts. Yet, these insights remain to be empirically tested using a large-N study. We examine this claim and explore if rainfall anomalies have an amplifying effect on violent conflicts. We contend that the spatial convergence between conservancies and rainfall variability can spark conflicts over access to resources in times of scarcity and create strategic opportunities to satisfy secondary goals in times of abundance. To test our expectations, we use sub-national data from East Africa between 1990 and 2018. Our results suggest that regions with conservancies are somewhat more prone to communal violence and find strong evidence that positive rainfall anomalies increase the likelihood of violent communal conflicts in regions with a conservancy.

Keywords

Climate changeconservanciescommunal conflictEast Africa
Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Modern African Studies , Volume 61 , Issue 1 , March 2023 , pp. 91 - 115
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press

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Footnotes

1

Corresponding author.

2

Present address: Andalusian Institute of Earth Sciences, CSIC-UGR, Granada, Spain. Alvaro Fernandez acknowledges support from a Juan de la Cierva-Incorporation Fellowship (IJC2019-040065-I) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and the European Development Fund and the European Social Fund.

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