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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 15 December 2025

The nonlinear Tollmien–Schlichting waves mechanism of subcritical transitional flow in quasi-two-dimensional flow and two-dimensional (2-D) plane Poiseuille flow have been investigated (Camobreco et al. 2023 J. Fluid Mech., vol. 963, p. R2; Huang et al. 2024 J. Fluid Mech., vol. 994, p. A6). However, the subcritical transitional flow threshold has remained unsolved for 2-D shear flows since the problem was proposed in Trefethen et al. (1993 Science vol. 261, no. 5121, pp. 578–584). In this study, we proposed a theoretical analysis based on the nonlinear non-modal analysis and asymptotic analysis to quantify the scaling law for subcritical transitional flow of 2-D plane Poiseuille flow. The subcritical transitional flow induced by the critical disturbance experiences the nonlinear edge state with invariant disturbance kinetic energy (Huang et al. 2024 J. Fluid Mech. vol. 994, p. A6). Consequently, the required magnitude along with the edge state is predicted by asymptotic analysis, and the a priori threshold is achieved theoretically. All stages are validated by the numerical minimal seeds of different channels. The proposed theory predicts that the scaling laws are
$O(Re^{-11/3})$ and
$O(\textit{Re}^{-7/3})$ for the critical disturbances and their edge state, respectively. While the numerical thresholds of the subcritical transitional flow are
$ \textit{Re}^{-11/3 \pm 0.06}$ and
$ \textit{Re}^{-7/3 \pm 0.05}$, respectively.