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AFRICA'S PROSPECTIVE URBAN TRANSITION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 February 2017

Paul Collier
Paul Collier*
Affiliation:
Oxford University
*
Address correspondence to: Paul Collier, Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK; e-mail: paul.collier@bsg.ox.ac.uk
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Abstract

The headline demographics of sub-Saharan Africa appear to be reason for concern. Looking back, since Independence in the 1960s, the region has been the major exception to the global demographic trend of rising height: In some countries, average height has even been declining [eLife (2016)]. Looking forward, between now and 2050, the population is set to grow more rapidly than that of any other region. But the demographic transition that is typically of most concern to African governments is not about the size or stature of overall population, it is urbanization. Politicians fear the consequences of a restive urban youth: an Arab Spring repeated south of the Sahara. Many would like to slow the pace of urbanization.

Keywords

AfricaUrban transition
Type
Essays
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 83 , Issue 1: Short Essays on African Demography and Economic Development , March 2017 , pp. 3 - 11
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2017 

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Footnotes

I gratefully acknowledge the support of the World Bank's Knowledge for Change Program and a Global Research Program on Spatial Development of Cities funded by the Multi Donor Trust Fund on Sustainable Urbanization of the World Bank and supported by the UK Department for International Development. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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