A finite population of gametes is studied, classified according to the alleles present at k linked loci. A canonical method of following the joint probability distribution of the gametic types from generation to generation is developed. It is shown how the investigation of the rate of first fixation can be systematised. Explicit results are given for k = 2, and, although not so complete, for k = 3.

A model is presented for a bounded growth population subjected to random-sized emigrations that occur due to population pressure.

The deterministic growth component examined in detail is defined by a Prendiville process. Results are obtained for the times between emigration events and for the population increase between emigrations. Some information is obtained about the mean time to extinction and also for the mean population level when the emigration-size distribution is negative exponential.

The distribution of the maximum and the extinction probability for a Markovian population is derived. Asymptotic growth is described, using the sequence of sojourn times. A regularity criterion for the processes under consideration exists under certain assumptions. For a class of processes with specific population-dependent transition rates the asymptotic behaviour is given explicitly.

A generalization to continuous time is given for a discrete-time model of a birth and death process in a random environment. Some important properties of this process in the continuous-time setting are stated and proved including instability and extinction conditions, and when suitable absorbing barriers have been defined, methods are given for the calculation of extinction probabilities and the expected duration of the process.

In classical demographic theory, the age structure of a population eventually stabilizes, and the population as a whole grows at a geometric rate. It is possible to prove stochastic analogues of these results if vital rates fluctuate according to a stationary stochastic process. The approach taken here is to study the action of random matrix products on random vectors. This permits the application of Hilbert's projective metric and leads to considerable simplification of the ergodic and central limit theory of population growth.

This paper is concerned with a discrete-time population model in which a new individual entering the population at time t can produce offspring for the first time at time t + 2 and then subsequently at times t + 3, t + 4, ···. The numbers of offspring produced on each occasion are independent random variables each with the distribution of Z for which EZ = m <∞, and individuals have independent lines of descent. This model is contrasted with the corresponding Bienaymé-Galton-Watson one. If Xn denotes the number of individuals in the population at time n, it is shown that z–nXn almost surely converges to a random variable W, as n→∞, where Various properties of W are obtained, in particular W > 0 a.s. if and only if EZ | log Z | < ∞ Results are also given on the rate of convergence of to z when Var Z < ∞ and these display a surprising dependence on the size of z.

This paper aims to demonstrate that the general Crump–Mode–Jagers branching process may be used in a natural way to model the asymmetric growth of budding yeast cells. The models obtained are generalisations of the deterministic model proposed by Hartwell and Unger (1977): all the results that are derived in that paper may be obtained using branching-process methods, but such methods also apply when account is taken of the biologically obvious fact that the various phases of the cell growth are of random rather than fixed duration. In their full generality, branching processes involve more parameters than can be estimated by experiment, but we present below a special case in which this problem is not likely to arise.

A recent paper, Lord and Wheals (1980), discusses more of the biological background than is appropriate here. In the present paper, we show how certain statistical procedures for our model may be developed.

Let U be the distribution function of the non-negative passage time of an individual edge of the square lattice, and let a0n be the minimal passage time from (0, 0) to (n, 0). The process a0n/n converges in probability as n → ∞to a finite constant μ (U) called the time constant. It is proven that μ (Uk)→ μ(U) whenever Uk converges weakly to U.

Two-dimensional bounded birth and death processes are considered. State probabilities are given for the generalized case in which the transition rates are arbitrary time-independent functions of the population sizes. Some applications in epidemic theory and species interaction processes are briefly described.

A group of n susceptible individuals exposed to a contagious disease is considered. It is assumed that at each instant in time one or more susceptible individuals can contract the disease.

The progress of this epidemic is modeled by a stochastic process Xn(t), t in [0,∞) representing the number of infective individuals at time t. It is shown that Xn(t), with the suitable standardization and under a mild condition, converges in distribution as n → ∞to a normal random variable for all t in (0, t0), where t0 is an identifiable number.

The paper is concerned with the relationship between various modes of convergence for stochastically monotone sequences of random variables. A necessary and sufficient condition, as well as a sufficient condition, for convergence in probability of a vaguely convergent sequence are given. If, in addition, the sequence is assumed Markovian the same conditions are shown to pertain to almost sure convergence. A counterexample in the case when stochastic monotonicity fails is presented and some applications to branching processes are discussed.

The transient distribution of the number of segregating sites in a sample from a large population of 2N genes is found. Segregating sites are split into those in common with the sites segregating in the initial population and those segregating due to new mutations. The waiting time distribution for a population to lose all of its initial sites is also studied. A neutral infinite-sites model with no recombination is used. This paper extends the work of Watterson (1975), from the stationary case; and of Li (1977) from the transient distribution in a sample of 2.

Draw two lines, L1 and L2, in a plane. Along L1 place the points of a Poisson process, and through each point draw a line, the angles of intersection with L1 being distributed independently and uniformly on (0, π) . The intercepts of these random lines with L2 form a new process, which is Poisson if and only if L1 and L2 are parallel. Curiously, if L1 and L2 are inclined then, with probability 1, the new process forms a dense subset of L2. It is not really even a point process. In the present paper we shall investigate this anomaly and some of its generalizations.

To evaluate the benefits and risks associated with screening for disease, a model is developed to characterize the changes in incidence and survival distributions effected by a screening program. Screening is presumed to increase survival by resulting in diagnosis of disease at earlier stages. All disease states in the model are observable, thus facilitating application to empirical data. An example of such an application using data from a breast cancer detection project is given for the case of one screening for two-stage disease having Weibull-distributed diagnosis times.

It is shown that the specific intersection density of a stationary Poisson process of cylindrical fibres in Rd, d ≧ 2, attains its maximum when the directions are uniformly distributed. This generalizes a result by R. Davidson for line processes in R2.

The paper investigates some properties of the first-order bilinear time series model: stationarity and invertibility. Estimates of the parameters are obtained by a modified least squares method and shown to be strongly consistent.

Given a coherent reliability system, let Z be the age of the machine at breakdown, and I the set of parts dead by time Z. We prove that if all lifetime distributions are non-atomic and share the same essential extrema, and if the incidence matrix of the minimal cut sets has rank equal to the number of parts, then the joint distribution of Z and I determines uniquely the lifetime distribution of each part. We present a Newton–Kantorovič iterative method for the computation of those distributions. We deal informally with the relaxation of the assumptions and with the statistical problem where instead of the joint distribution of Z and I we have an empirical estimate of this joint distribution.

Regenerative stopping problems are stopping problems which recommence from the initial state upon stopping. An algorithm is presented which solves semi-Markov regenerative stopping problem with a finite number of continue actions by solving a sequence of stopping problems. New results for the optimal stopping problem are obtained as well as for the regenerative stopping problem. A model in the literature is used as a detailed example of the algorithm.

The present paper considers methods for computing moments connected with subcritical multitype branching processes. By stressing the interplay between moment and cumulant structure, it is possible to prove simultaneously the existence of the moments. The kinds of moments considered are those arising in (1) times to extinction, (2) ultimate numbers of particles starting from a single particle, and (3) equilibrium numbers of particles for subcritical processes experiencing immigration.