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A note on the recurrence of yellow fever epidemics in urban populations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

J. Radcliffe
J. Radcliffe*
Affiliation:
Queen Mary College, London
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Abstract

An approximate expression is found for the probability density of the recurrence time between major outbreaks of a host-vector disease such as yellow fever, in which the infectious period of a host is short and the lifetime of a vector is short compared with that of a host. The typical interval between epidemics based on the modal value of this distribution is obtained. These results are the analogues of those obtained by Bartlett (1956), (1966) for the periodicity of measles epidemics in small communities.

Keywords

HOST-VECTOR EPIDEMICYELLOW FEVERRECURRENCE TIME OF MAJOR EPIDEMICS

Information

Type
Short Communications
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 11 , Issue 1 , March 1974 , pp. 170 - 173
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1974 

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References

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