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NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF CONDITIONAL VALUE-AT-RISK AND EXPECTED SHORTFALL BASED ON EXTREME VALUE THEORY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 December 2016

Carlos Martins-Filho ,
Feng Yao  and
Maximo Torero
Carlos Martins-Filho*
Affiliation:
University of Colorado IFPRI
Feng Yao
Affiliation:
West Virginia University Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
Maximo Torero
Affiliation:
IFPRI
*
*Address correspondence to Carlos Martins-Filho, Department of Economics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0256, USA; and IFPRI, 2033 K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002, USA; e-mail: carlos.martins@colorado.edu, c.martins-filho@cgiar.org.
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Abstract

We propose nonparametric estimators for conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) associated with conditional distributions of a series of returns on a financial asset. The return series and the conditioning covariates, which may include lagged returns and other exogenous variables, are assumed to be strong mixing and follow a nonparametric conditional location-scale model. First stage nonparametric estimators for location and scale are combined with a generalized Pareto approximation for distribution tails proposed by Pickands (1975, Annals of Statistics 3, 119–131) to give final estimators for CVaR and CES. We provide consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators under suitable normalization. We also present the results of a Monte Carlo study that sheds light on their finite sample performance. Empirical viability of the model and estimators is investigated through a backtesting exercise using returns on future contracts for five agricultural commodities.

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Type
ARTICLES
Information
Econometric Theory , Volume 34 , Issue 1 , February 2018 , pp. 23 - 67
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

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Footnotes

We thank Peter C. B. Phillips, Eric Renault, an Associate Editor and an anonymous referee for comments that improved the paper substantially. Any remaining errors are the authors’ responsibility.

References

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