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Child versus adult probabilities of death and their effects on under-25 and total fertility: a test using over 30 years of panel data from 204 countries and territories

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 November 2025

Gillian V. Pepper Open the ORCID record for Gillian V. Pepper [Opens in a new window]
Gillian V. Pepper*
Affiliation:
Northumbria University at Newcastle, UK gillian.pepper@northumbria.ac.uk
*
*Corresponding author.
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Abstract

After presenting their two-tier model, Ellis, Reid, and Kramer (2024) tentatively state that child mortality risk should predict offspring quantity, while adult mortality risk should accelerate reproductive timing. I test these assertions using mortality risk and fertility data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project for 204 countries and territories over 32 years, finding partial support for their predictions.

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Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 48 , 2025 , e118
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press

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References

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