Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-hvd4g Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-12T13:42:24.785Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
Series:   Elements in Indo-Pacific Security

Taiwan and the Danger of a Sino-American War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 December 2024

Steve Chan
Steve Chan
Affiliation:
University of Colorado Boulder

Summary

The author presents contrarian arguments contesting mainstream US views on the danger of a Sino-American war over Taiwan's status. They contend that these countries' dispute about Taiwan is motivated by opposing strategic interests and security concerns rather than just, or even mainly, clashing values such as national reunification, sovereignty, democracy, and self-determination. The danger of a Sino-American confrontation has become more elevated recently due to a confluence of several concurrent developments. Despite this increased danger compared to any time since Richard Nixon visited Beijing in 1972, they conclude that war is not imminent or likely-barring extreme hardliners and radical nationalists taking over policymaking in Beijing, Taipei and/or Washington. Despite a rising chorus urging Washington to commit more firmly to Taiwan's defense, they argue that the United States will not likely intervene directly on Taiwan's behalf. Even more controversially, they submit that Beijing will eventually prevail in this dispute.
Get access

Keywords

TaiwanSino-American Warextended deterrenceprospect theoryattribution theory
Type
Element
Information
Series: Elements in Indo-Pacific Security
Online ISBN: 9781009589543
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 02 January 2025

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Agnew, J. (2023). Hidden Geopolitics: Governance in a Globalized World. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Allison, G. T. (1971). Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Allison, G. T. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.Google Scholar
Arreguin-Toft, I. (2005). How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barbieri, K. (2002). The Liberal Illusion: Does Trade Promote Peace? Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnett, M. & Duvall, R. (2005). Power in international politics. International Organization, 59(1), 471–506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnhart, M. A. (1987). Japan Prepares for Total War: The Search for Economic Security, 1919–1945. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Baumgartner, F. R. & Jones, B. D. ([1993] 2009). Agendas and Instability in American Politics. 2nd ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Beckley, M. (2015). The myth of entangling alliances. International Security, 39(4), 7–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beckley, M. (2017). The emergent balance in East Asia: How China’s neighbors can check Chinese naval expansion. International Security, 42(2), 78–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beckley, M. (2023). The perils of peaking powers: Economic slowdowns and implications for China’s next decade. International Security, 48(1), 7–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, S. R. & Johnson, J. C. (2015). Shifting power, commitment problems, and preventive war. International Studies Quarterly, 59(1), 124–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benson, B. V. (2012). Constructing International Security: Alliances, Deterrence, and Moral Hazard. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benson, B. V. & Niou, E. M. S. (2005). Public opinion, foreign policy, and the security balance in the Taiwan Strait. Security Studies, 14(2), 274–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benson, B. V. & Niou, E. M. S. (2007). Economic interdependence and peace: A game-theoretic analysis. Journal of East Asian Studies, 7(1), 35–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biddle, S. & Oelrich, I. (2016). Future warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese antiaccess/area denial, U.S. airsea battle, and command of the commons in East Asia. International Security, 41(1), 7–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, B. (2022). U.S. should recognize Taiwan; former top diplomat Pompeo says. Reuters, March 4. www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-should-recognise-taiwan-former-top-diplomat-pompeo-says-2022–03-04/.Google Scholar
Borger, J. (2016). Russian hostility “partly caused by West,” claims former US defence head. The Guardian, March 9. www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/09/russian-hostility-to-west-partly-caused-by-west.Google Scholar
Bourne, K. (1967). Britain and the Balance of Power in North America, 1815–1908. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brzezinski, Z. (1986). Game Plan: A Geostrategic Framework for the Conduct of the U.S.-Soviet Contest. Boston, MA: Atlantic Monthly Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B. & Smith, A. (2012). The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics. New York: PublicAffairs.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow, J. D. (2003). The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: The MIT PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burr, W. & Richelson, J. (2000/2001). Whether to “strangle the baby in the cradle:” The United States and the Chinese nuclear program, 1960–64. International Security, 25(3), 54–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bush, R. C. (2005). Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Bush, R. C. (2013). Uncharted Strait: The Future China-Taiwan Relations. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Buzan, B. & Cox, M. (2013). China and the US: Comparable cases of “peaceful rise”? Chinese Journal of International Politics, 6(2), 109–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cabestan, J. P. (2024). Facing China: The Prospect for War and Peace. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Campbell, K. M. & Rapp-Hooper, M. (2020). China is done biding its time: The end of Beijing’s foreign policy restraint? Foreign Affairs, July 15. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-07-15/china-done-biding-its-time.Google Scholar
Campbell, K. M. & Ratner, E. (2018). The China reckoning: How Beijing defied American expectations. Foreign Affairs, 97(2), 60–70.Google Scholar
Campbell, K. M. & Sullivan, J. (2020). Competition without catastrophe: How America can both challenge and coexist with China. Foreign Affairs, September/October. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/competition-with-china-without-catastrophe?utm_source=academic&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CFRAcademicBulletin29Jan2021&utm_term=AcademicBulletin.Google Scholar
Center for Strategic and International Studies (2020). Mapping the future of U.S. China policy: Views of U.S. thought leaders, the U.S. public, and U.S. allies and partners. https://chinasurvey.csis.org/analysis/.Google Scholar
Central News Agency (2022). Public less confident in U.S. coming to Taiwan’s defense: Survey. April 30. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202204300009.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2003). Extended deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: Learning from rationalist explanations in international relations. World Affairs, 166(2), 109–25.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2005). Prognosticating about extended deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: Implications from strategic selection. World Affairs, 168(1), 13–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, S. (2006). The politics of economic exchange: Carrots and sticks in Taiwan, China and U.S. relations. Issues & Studies, 42(2), 1–22.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2008). China, the U.S., and the Power-Transition Theory: A Critique. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2009). The political economy of détente: Taiwan’s economic integration with China. Maryland Series in Contemporary Asian Studies, 1, 68–87.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2012). Money talks: International credit/debt as credible commitment. Journal of East Asian Affairs, 26(1), 77–103.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2014). Extended deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: Discerning resolve and commitment. American Journal of Chinese Studies, 21(2), 83–93.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2020). Thucydides’s Trap? Historical Interpretation, Logic of Inquiry, and the Future of Sino-American Relations. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, S. (2021). In the eyes of storm: Taiwan, China, and the U.S. in challenging times. In Clark, C.M., Ho, K., and Tan, A.C., eds., Taiwan’s Political Economy. New York: Nova Science Publishers, pp. 61–78.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2022a). Precedent, path dependency, and reasoning by analogy: The strategic implications of the Ukraine war on Sino-American relations and relations across the Taiwan Strait. Asian Survey, 62(5–6), 945–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, S. (2022b). 陳思德 (侯秀琴譯), 美國、台灣和華府的戰略模糊政策. The Storm Media (風傳媒), December 16. www.storm.mg/article/4659315?mode=whole.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2023a). Rumbles of Thunder: Power Shifts and the Danger of Sino-American War. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (2023b). Bewildered and befuddled: The West’s convoluted narrative on China’s rise. Asian Survey, 63(5), 691–715.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, S. (2024). Culture, Economic Growth, and Interstate Power Shift: Implications for Competition between China and the United States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, S. (Forthcoming/a). Fuses, Chains, and Backlashes: China, the United States, and the Dynamics of Conflict Contagion and Escalation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (Forthcoming/b). Punctuated Equilibrium and Sion-American Relations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Chan, S. (Forthcoming/c). Power shift, problem shift, and policy shift: Reacting to China’s rise. In Rhamey, P. and Bakish, S. D., eds., The Sources of Great Power Competition. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Chan, S. & Hu, W. (2025). Taiwan as a flash point: Possible lessons from the war in Ukraine. In Thompson, W. and Volgy, T. J., eds., Reconsidering the East Asian Peace: Confluences, Regional Characteristics and Societal Transformations. New York: Routledge, pp. 155–80.Google Scholar
Chan, S. & Hu, W. (Forthcoming/a). Rising states and the liberal world order: The case of China. International Affairs.Google Scholar
Chan, S. & Hu, W. (Forthcoming/b). Geography and International Conflict: Ukraine, Taiwan, Indo- Pacific, and Sino-American Relations. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, S., Feng, H., He, K., & Hu, W. (2021). Contesting Revisionism: China, the United States, and the Transformation of International Order. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiozza, G. & Goemans, H. E. (2003). Peace through insecurity: Tenure and international conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(4), 443–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, T. J. (2001). Posing problems without catching up: China’s rise and challenges to U.S. security policy. International Security, 25(4), 5–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, M. D., March, J. G., & Olson, J. P. (1972). A garbage can theory of organizational choice. Administrative Science Quarterly, 17(1), 1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copeland, D. C. (1996). Economic interdependence and war: A theory of trade expectations. International Security, 20(4), 5–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copeland, D. C. (2000). The Origins of Major War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Crawford, T. W. (2003). Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Daalder, I. H. & Lindsay, J. M. (2005). America Unbound: The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
DeRouen, K. Jr. (2000). Presidents and the diversionary use of force: A research note. International Studies Quarterly, 44(2), 317–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Vries, K. (2023). Milley says Trump disrespected US military with execution comment. Cable News Network (CNN), September 28. www.cnn.com/2023/09/28/politics/milley-donald-trump-execution-comment/index.html.Google Scholar
Diehl, P. F., ed. (1998). The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press.Google Scholar
Diehl, P. F. & Goertz, G. (2000). War and Peace in International Rivalry. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dress, B. (2024). China will be ready for potential Taiwan invasion by 2027: US admiral warns. The Hill, March 21. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4547637-china-potential-taiwan-invasion-2027-us-admiral-warns/.Google Scholar
Erickson, A. S., Montgomery, E. B., Neuman, C., Biddle, S., & Oelrich, I. (2017). Correspondence: How good are China’s antiaccess/area-denial capabilities? International Security, 41(4), 202–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrel, H. & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized interdependence: How global economic networks shape state coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, J. D. (1994). Signaling versus the balance of power and interests: An empirical test of a crisis bargaining model. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(2), 236–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization, 49(3), 379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, J. D. (1997). Signaling foreign policy interests: Tying hands versus sinking costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(1), 68–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fravel, M. T. (2005). Regime insecurity and international cooperation: Explaining China’s compromises in territorial disputes. International Security, 30(2), 46–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fravel, M. T. (2007/2008). Power shifts and escalation: Explaining China’s use of force in territorial disputes. International Security, 32(3), 44–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fravel, M. T. (2008). Strong Border, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Order in China’s Territorial Disputes. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedberg, A.L. (2011). A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Friedman, G. & LeBard, M. (1991). The Coming War with Japan. New York: St. Martin’s.Google Scholar
Fukuyama, F. (2020). The pandemic and political order: It takes a state. Foreign Affairs, July/August. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2020-06-09/pandemic-and-political-order.Google Scholar
Gartzke, E., Li, Q., & Boehmer, C. (2001). Investing in the peace: Economic interdependence and international conflict. International Organization, 55(2), 391–438.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Georgetown University Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues. (2020). America’s Taiwan policy: Debating strategic ambiguity and the future of Asian security. October 2. https://uschinadialogue.georgetown.edu/events/america-s-taiwan-policy-debating-strategic-ambiguity-and-the-future-of-asian-security.Google Scholar
Gilley, B. (2010). Not so dire straits: How the Finlandization of Taiwan benefits U.S. security. Foreign Affairs, 89(1), 44–56, 58–60.Google Scholar
Gilli, A. & Gilli, M. (2019). Why China has not caught up yet: Military-technological superiority and the limits of imitation, reverse engineering, and cyber espionage. International Security, 43(3), 141–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glaser, B. S., Mazarr, M. J., Glennon, M. J., Haass, R., & Sacks, D. (2020). Dire straits: Should American support for Taiwan be ambiguous? Foreign Affairs, September 24. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-09-24/dire-straits.Google Scholar
Glosny, M. A. (2004). Strangulation from the sea? A PRC submarine blockade of Taiwan. International Security, 28(4), 125–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goddard, S. E. (2006). Uncommon ground: Indivisible territory and the politics of legitimacy. International Organization, 60(1), 35–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, L. & Murray, W. (2004). Undersea dragons: China’s maturing submarine force. International Security, 28(4), 161–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gramsci, A. (1971). Selections from the Prison Notebooks of Antonio Gramsci. New York: International Publishers.Google Scholar
Green, B. R. & Talmadge, C. (2022). Then what? Assessing the military implications of Chinese control of Taiwan. International Security, 47(1), 7–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grigoryan, A. (2020). Selective Wilsonianism: Material interests and the West’s support for democracy. International Security, 44(4), 158–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haass, R. & Sacks, D. (2020). American support for Taiwan must be unambiguous. Foreign Affairs, September 20. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous.Google Scholar
Haynes, K. (2017). Diversionary conflict: Demonizing enemies or demonstrating competence? Conflict Management and Peace Science, 34(4), 337–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirschman, A. O. (1945). National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, O. (1962). The belief system and national images: A case study. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 6(3), 244–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hou, P. (2023). China won’t invade Taiwan – for now. The Diplomat, December 8. https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/china-wont-invade-taiwan-for-now/.Google Scholar
Hsieh, J. F. S. & Niou, E. M. S. (2005). Measuring Taiwan public opinion on Taiwanese independence. China Quarterly, 181(1), 158–68.Google Scholar
Huth, P. K. (1988a). Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, P. K. (1988b). Extended deterrence and the outbreak of war. American Political Science Review, 82(2), 423–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ike, N. (1967). Japan’s Decision for War: Records of the 1941 Policy Conferences. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Janis, I. L. (1982). Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the security dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167–214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, A. I. (2011). Stability and instability in Sino-US relations: A response to Yan Xuetong’s superficial friendship theory. Chinese Journal of International Politics, 4(1), 5–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kagan, D. (1969). The Outbreak of the Peloponnesian War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Kagan, R. (2005). The Illusion of “Managing” China. The Washington Post. May 15. https://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2005/05/13/AR2005051301405.html.Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A., eds. (2000). Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A., eds. (1982). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kang, D. C. (2023). There is no East Asian balancing against China. Manuscript.Google Scholar
Kastner, S. L. (2022). War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaufman, C. (2004). Threat inflation and the failure of the marketplace of ideas: The selling of the Iraq war. International Security, 29(1), 5–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kennedy, P. (1987). The Rise and Fall of Great Powers. New York: Vintage Books.Google Scholar
Keohane, R. O. & Nye, J. S. (1977). Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Khong, Y. F. (1992). Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, C. J. (2019). Military alliances as a stabilising force: U.S. relations with South Korea and Taiwan, 1950s–1960s. Journal of Strategic Studies, 44(7), 1041–62.Google Scholar
Kube, C. & Gains, M. (2023). Air force general predicts war with China in 2025, tells officers to prep by firing “a clip” at a target, and “aim for the head.” NBC News, January 27. www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967.Google Scholar
Kugler, J. & Arbetman, M. (1997). Relative policy capacity: Political extraction and political reach. In Arbetman, M. and Kugler, J., eds., Political Capacity and Economic Behavior. Boulder, CO: Westview, pp. 11–45.Google Scholar
Kugler, J. & Domke, W. (1986). Comparing the strengths of nations. Comparative Political Studies, 19(1), 39–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kupchan, C. A. & Trubowitz, P. L. (2007). Dead center: The demise of liberal internationalism in the United States. International Security, 32(2), 7–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kupchan, C. A. & Trubowitz, P. L. (2010). The illusion of liberal internationalism’s revival. International Security, 35(1), 95–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kupchan, C. A. & Trubowitz, P. L. (2021a). A China strategy to reunite America’s allies. Project Syndicate, January 4. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biden-china-strategy-to-reunite-us-allies-by-charles-a-kupchan-and-peter-trubowitz-1-2021-01?barrier=accesspaylog.Google Scholar
Kupchan, C. A. & Trubowitz, P. L. (2021b). The home front: Why an internationalist foreign policy needs a stronger domestic foundation. Foreign Affairs, May/June. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-04-20/foreign-policy-home-front.Google Scholar
Larson, D. W. & Shevchenko, A. (2010). Status seekers: Chinese and Russian responses to U.S. primacy. International Security, 34(4), 63–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Larson, D. W. & Shevchenko, A. (2019). Quest for Status: Chinese and Russian Foreign Policy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Layne, C. (1994). Kant or cant: The myth of the democratic peace. International Security, 19(2), 5–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebow, R. N. (1984). Window of opportunity: Do states jump through them? International Security, 9(1), 147–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebow, R. N. (1985). Miscalculation in the South Atlantic: The Origins of the Falklands war. In Jervis, R., Lebow, R. N., and Stein, J. G., eds., Psychology and Deterrence. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 85–124.Google Scholar
Lebow, R. N. (2010). Why Nations Fight: Past and Future Motivations for War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levin, D. H. (2020). Meddling in the Ballot Box: The Causes and Effects of Partisan Electoral Interventions. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, J. S. (1987). Declining power and the preventive motivation for war. World Politics, 60(1), 82–17.Google Scholar
Levy, J. S. (1996). Loss aversion, framing and bargaining: The implications of prospect theory for international conflict. International Political Science Review, 17(2), 177–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, J. S. (2008a). Preventive war and democratic politics. International Studies Quarterly, 52(1), 1–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, J. S. (2008b). Deterrence and coercive diplomacy: The contributions of Alexander George. Political Psychology, 29(4), 537–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liao, G. (2022). Taiwanese pessimistic about prospect of US sending troops to help defend nation: pollster. Taiwan Times, May 20. www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/4481985.Google Scholar
Lieber, K. A. (2007). The new history of World War I and what it means for international relations theory. International Security, 32(2), 155–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lin, S. S. (2016). Taiwan’s China Dilemma: Contested Identities and Multiple Interests in Taiwan’s Cross- Strait Economic Policy. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lind, J. (2017). Asia’s other revisionist power: Why U.S. grand strategy unnerves China. Foreign Affairs, 96(2), 74–82.Google Scholar
Lindblom, C. (1959). The science of muddling through. Public Administration Review, 19(2), 79–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liu, F. C. S. (2016). Taiwanese voters political identification profile, 2013-2014: Becoming one China or creating a new country? Asian Survey, 56(5), 931–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lukes, S. (1975). Power: A Radical View. Houndmills: MacMillan.Google Scholar
Mack, A. (1975). Why big nations lose small wars: The politics of asymmetric conflict. World Politics, 27(2), 175–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackinder, H. J. (1904). The geographical pivot of history. The Geographical Journal, 23(4), 421–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackinder, H. J. (1919). Democratic Ideals and Reality: A Study in the Politics of Reconstruction. London: Constable.Google Scholar
Mackinder, H. J. (1943). The round world and the winning of the peace. Foreign Affairs, 21(4), 595–605.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, E. D. & Pollins, B. M, eds. (2003). Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: Perspectives on an Enduring Debate. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mastro, O. S. (2021). The Taiwan temptation: Why Beijing might resort to force. Foreign Affairs, 100(4), 58–67.Google Scholar
Mazarr, M. J. (2007). The Iraq war and agenda setting. Foreign Policy Analysis, 3(1), 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mazarr, M. J. (2020). Dire straits: should American support for Taiwan be ambiguous? A guarantee won’t solve the problem. Foreign Affairs, September 24. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-09-24/dire-straits.Google Scholar
McDermott, R. (1998). Risk-Taking in International Relations: Prospect Theory in American Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, J. L. (2014). Taiwan’s dire straits. The National Interest, 130 (March-April), 29–39.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, J. J. & Walt, S. M. (2003). An unnecessary war. Foreign Policy, 134 (January/February), 50–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meernik, J. & Waterman, P. (1996). The myth of the diversionary use of force by American president. Political Research Quarterly, 49(3), 573–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mercer, J. (1996). Reputation and International Politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mercer, J. (2007). Reputation and rational deterrence theory. Security Studies, 7(1), 100–11.Google Scholar
Merom, G. (2003). How Democracies Lose Small Wars: State, Society, and the Failure of France in Algeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United States in Vietnam. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montgomery, E. B. (2014). Contested primacy in the Western Pacific: China’s rise and the future of U.S. power projection. International Security, 38(4), 115–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, C. (1999). Domestic support and diversionary external conflict in Great Britain, 1950–1992. Journal of Politics, 61(3), 799–814.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, K. (2021). Milley secretly called Chinese officials out of fear Trump would “attack” in final days: Book claims. Fox News, September 14. www.foxnews.com/politics/milley-secretly-called-chinese-officials-out-of-fear-trump-would-attack-in-final-days-book-claims.Google Scholar
Morrow, J. D. (1993). Arms versus allies: Tradeoffs in the search for security. International Organization, 47(2), 207–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, J. D. (2003). Assessing the role of trade as a source of costly signals. In Mansfield, E.D. and Pollins, B., eds., Economic Interdependence and International Conflict. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 89–95.Google Scholar
Murata, K. (2007). U.S.-Japan alliance as flexible institution. In Ikenberry, G. J. and Inoguchi, T., eds., The Uses of Institutions: The U.S., Japan, and Governance in East Asia. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 131–50.Google Scholar
Murray, M. (2010). Identity, insecurity, and great power politics: The tragedy of German naval ambition before First World War. Security Studies, 19(4), 656–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murray, M. (2019). The Struggle for Recognition in International Relations: Status, Revisionism, and Rising Powers. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
O’Hanlon, M. E. (2000). Why China cannot conquer Taiwan. International Security, 25(2), 51–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O’Hanlon, M. E., Goldstein, E. L. & Murray, W. (2004). Correspondence: Damn the torpedoes: Debating possible U.S. navy losses in a Taiwan scenario. International Security. 29(2), 202–6.Google Scholar
Olson, M. Jr. (1965). The Logic of Collective Action. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olson, M. Jr. & Zeckhauser, R. (1966). An economic theory of alliances. Review of Economics and Statistics, 48(3), 266–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oren, I. (2003). Our Enemies and US: America’s Rivalries and the Making of Political Science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Organski, A. F. K. & Kugler, J. (1980). The War Ledger. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pan, H. H., Wu, W. C., & Chang, Y. T. (2017). How Chinese citizens perceive cross-Strait relations: Survey results from ten major cities in China. Journal of Contemporary China, 26(106), 616–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paul, T. V. (1994). Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Platias, A. & Trigkas, V. (2021). Unravelling the Thucydides’ Trap: Inadvertent escalation or war of choice? Chinese Journal of International Politics, 14(2), 187–217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, R. (1999). In the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Power, S. (2001). Bystander to genocide. The Atlantic, September. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2001/09/bystanders-to-genocide/304571/.Google Scholar
Prestowitz, C. V. Jr. (1990). Trading Places: How We Are Giving Our Future to Japan and How to Reclaim It. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Priebe, M., Rooney, B., McCulloch, C., & Burdette, Z. (2021). Do Alliances and Partnerships Entangle the United States in Conflict? Santa Monica, CA: RAND.Google Scholar
Putnam, R. D. (1988). Diplomacy and domestic politics: The logic of two-level games. International Organization, 42(3), 427–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ratner, E. (2021). Statement by Dr. Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs office of the secretary of defense before the 117th congress committee on foreign relations, United States Senate, December 8. www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/120821_Ratner_Testimony1.pdf.Google Scholar
Record, J. (2007). Beating Goliath: Why Insurgencies Win. Washington, DC: Potomac Books.Google Scholar
Reiter, D. (1995). Exploding the powder keg myth: Preemptive wars almost never happen. International Security, 20(2), 5–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Renshon, J. (2016). Status deficits and war. International Organization, 70(3), 513–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Renshon, J. (2017). Fighting for Status: Hierarchy and Conflict in World Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Richards, D., Morgan, T. C., Wilson, R. K., Schwebach, V., & Young, G. D. (1993). Good times, bad times, and the diversionary use of force: A tale of some not-so-free agents. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 37(3), 504–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richardson, L. F. (1960). Arms and Insecurity. Pittsburgh, PA: Boxwood Press.Google Scholar
Rigger, S. (2011). Why Taiwan Matters: Small Island, Global Powerhouse. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Ross, R. S. (2002). Navigating the Taiwan Strait: Deterrence, escalation dominance, and US-China Relations. International Security, 27(2), 48–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rousseau, D. L. (2006). Identifying Threats and Threatening Identities: The Social Construction of Realism and Liberalism. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Russett, B. M. (1969). Refining deterrence theory: The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. In Pruitt, D. G. and Snyder, R. C., eds., Theory and Research on the Causes of War. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, pp. 127–35.Google Scholar
Russett, B. M. & Oneal, J. R. (2001). Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence and International Organizations. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Sartori, A. E. (2005). Deterrence by Diplomacy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schake, K. (2017). Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and Influence. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Schroeder, P. (1976). Alliances, 1815–1945: Weapons of power and tools of management. In Knorr, K., ed., Historical Dimensions of National Security Problems. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas, pp. 227–62.Google Scholar
Schweller, R. L. (1992). Democratic structure and preventive war: Are democracies more pacific? World Politics, 44(2), 235–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schweller, R. L. (2006). Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sharp, T., Meyers, J. S., & Beckley, M. (2018/2019). Correspondence: Will East Asia balance against Beijing? International Security, 43(3), 94–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shirk, S. L. (2023). Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Silverstone, S. A. (2007). Preventive War and American Democracy. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of Man. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Simon, H. A. (1977). The logic of heuristic decision-making. In Cohen, R. S. and Wartofsky, M. W., eds., Models of Discovery. Boston, MA: D. Reidel, pp. 154–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sinkkonen, E. (2013). Nationalism, patriotism, and foreign policy attitudes among Chinese university students. China Quarterly, 216, 1045–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, A. (1996). Diversionary foreign policy in democratic systems. International Studies Quarterly, 40(1), 133–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smeltz, D., Daalder, I., Friedhoff, K., Kafura, C. & Helm, B. (2019). Rejecting Retreat: Americans Support US Engagement in Global Affairs. Chicago, IL: Chicago Council on Global Affairs. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep21408.6.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A2fd3e4bb415aa23a893aa608a4885563Google Scholar
Snyder, G. H. (1997). Alliance Politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Snyder, J. (1993). Myth of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University PressGoogle Scholar
Snyder, J. & Borghard, E. D. (2011). The cost of empty threats: A penny, not a pound. American Political Science Review, 105(3), 437–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sobek, D. (2007). Rallying around the podesta: Testing diversionary theory across time. Journal of Peace Research, 44(1), 29–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solingen, E. (2007). Pax Asiatica versus bella Levantina: The foundations of war and peace in East Asia and the Middle East. American Political Science Review, 101(4), 757–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spykman, N. J. (1942). America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power. New York: Harcourt, Brace.Google Scholar
Spykman, N. J. (1944). The Geography of the Peace. New York: Harcourt, Brace.Google Scholar
Stein, A. A. (2003). Trade and conflict: Uncertainty, strategic signaling, and interstate disputes. In Mansfield, E. D. and Pollins, B. M., eds., Economic Interdependence and International Conflict. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 111–26.Google Scholar
Taiwan Documents Project. (No date). Shanghai communiqué: 28 February 1972. www.taiwandocuments.org/communique01.htm.Google Scholar
Tanaka, M. (2023). Ex-U.S. Indo-Pacific commander sticks to 2027 window on Taiwan attack. Kyoto News, January 23. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/01/018a26a02962-ex-us-indo-pacific-commander-sticks-to-2027-window-on-taiwan-attack.html.Google Scholar
Thompson, W. R. (1995). Principal rivalries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39(2), 195–223.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomson, J. C. (1973). How could Vietnam happen? An autopsy. In Halperin, M. H. and Kanter, A., eds., Readings in American Foreign Policy: A Bureaucratic Perspective. Boston, MA: Little, Brown, pp. 98–110.Google Scholar
Time Magazine. (2022). Biden: US would defend Taiwan from “unprecedented attack.” September 18. https://time.com/6214511/biden-defend-taiwan-china-us/.Google Scholar
Toal, G. (2017). Near Abroad: Putin, the West, and the Contest over Ukraine and the Caucasus. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trachtenberg, M. (2007). Preventive war and U.S. foreign policy. Security Studies, 16(1), 1–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trachtenberg, M. (2012). Audience costs: An historical analysis. Security Studies, 21(1), 3–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Treisman, D. (2004). Rational appeasement. International Organization, 58(2), 344–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyler, P. (1999). A Great Wall, Six Presidents and China: An Investigative History. New York: Perseus.Google Scholar
Van Evera, S. (1984). The cult of offensive and the origins of the First World War. International Security, 9(1), 58–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Evera, S. (1999). Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Vasquez, J. A. (1993). The War Puzzle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vasquez, J. A. (2009). Whether and how global leadership transitions will result in war: Some long-term predictions from steps-to-war explanation. In Thompson, W. R., ed., Systemic Transitions: Past, Present, and Future. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 131–60.Google Scholar
Vogel, E. F. (1979). Japan as Number One: Lessons for America. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wachman, A. M. (2007). Why Taiwan: Geostrategic Rationales for China’s Territorial Integrity. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, S. M. (2005). Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy. New York: Norton.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Wang, T. Y. (2017). Changing boundaries: The development of the Taiwan voters’ identity. In Achen, C. H. and Wang, T. Y., eds., The Taiwan Voter. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 45–70.Google Scholar
Wang, T. Y. (2021). Strategic Ambiguity or Strategic Clarity? US Policy toward the Taiwan Issue. Taiwan Insight. June 7. https://taiwaninsight.org/2021/06/07/strategic-ambiguity-or-strategic-clarity-us-policy-towards-the-taiwan-issue/.Google Scholar
Wang, T. Y. & Cheng, S. F. (2024). Strategic clarity and Taiwanese citizens’ confidence in the US security commitment. Asian Survey, 64(1), 54–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, T. Y. & Liu, I. C. (2004). Contending identities in Taiwan: Implications for cross-Strait relations. Asian Survey, 44(4), 568–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ward, S. (2017). Status and the Challenge of Rising Powers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wayman, F., Singer, J. D. & Goertz, G. (1983). Capabilities, allocations, and success in militarized disputes and wars, 1816–1976. International Studies Quarterly, 27(4), 497–515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Welch, D. (2015). Can the United States and China avoid a Thucydides Trap? E-International relations. www.e-ir.info/2015/04/06/can-the-united-states-and-china-avoid-a-thucydides-trap/.Google Scholar
Welch, D. (2020). China, the United States, and the “Thucydides’s Trap.” In Feng, H. and He, K., eds., China’s Challenges and International Order Transition: Beyond “Thucydides’s Trap.” Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 47–70.Google Scholar
Wendt, A. (1992). Anarchy is what states make of it: The social construction of power politics. International Organization, 46(2), 391–425.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The White House. (2002). The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. U.S. State Department. https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/63562.pdf.Google Scholar
Whiting, A. S. (1962). China Crosses the Yalu: The Decision to Enter the Korean War. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Whiting, A. S. (1975). The Chinese Calculus of Deterrence: India and Indochina. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Wildavsky, A. (1964). The Politics of the Budgetary Process. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Wildavsky, A. (1975). Budgeting: A Comparative Theory of Budgetary Process. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Wingrove, J. (2022). Biden says US would defend Taiwan in “Unprecedented Attack.” Bloomberg, September 18. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-18/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack.Google Scholar
Wohlstetter, R. (1962). Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolf, R. (2014). Rising powers, status ambitions, and the need to reassure: What China could learn from imperial Germany’s failures. Chinese Journal of International Politics 7(2), 185–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodward, B. & Costa, R. (2021). Peril. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Wu, Y-S. (2016). Heading towards troubled waters? The impact of Taiwan’s 2016 elections on cross-Strait Relations. American Journal of Chinese Studies, 23(1), 59–75.Google Scholar
Yang, Z. (2016). Explaining national identity shift in Taiwan. Journal of Contemporary China, 25(99), 336–52.Google Scholar
Zakaria, F. (2020). The new China scare: Why America shouldn’t panic about its latest challenger. Foreign Affairs, 99(1), 52–69.Google Scholar
Zakaria, F. (2024). Opinion: the world’s most dangerous place has only gotten even more dangerous. Cable News Network (CNN), March 10. www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/opinions/taiwan-china-us-tensions-war-zakaria/index.html.Google Scholar
Zelleke, A. (2020). “Strategic clarity” won’t solve the United States’ Taiwan dilemma: An open commitment to defend Taiwan won’t mean much unless the U.S. has the certain capacity to do so. The Diplomat, October 2. https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/strategic-clarity-wont-solve-the-united-states-taiwan-dilemma/.Google Scholar
Zhang, K. (2024). China’s Gambit: The Calculus of Coercion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar

Save element to Kindle

To save this element to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Taiwan and the Danger of a Sino-American War
  • Steve Chan, University of Colorado Boulder
  • Online ISBN: 9781009589543
Available formats
×

Save element to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Taiwan and the Danger of a Sino-American War
  • Steve Chan, University of Colorado Boulder
  • Online ISBN: 9781009589543
Available formats
×

Save element to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Taiwan and the Danger of a Sino-American War
  • Steve Chan, University of Colorado Boulder
  • Online ISBN: 9781009589543
Available formats
×