Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511599262

Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv
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Contents
pp v-viii
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List of figures
pp ix-x
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List of tables
pp xi-xii
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Preface
pp xiii-xiv
- By L. Alan Winters, University of Wales, Bangor, and CEPR, David Sapsford, University of East Anglia
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List of conference participants
pp xv-xvi
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1 - Primary commodity prices: an introduction to the major policy and modelling challenges
pp 1-18
- By L. Alan Winters, University of Wales, Bangor, and CEPR, David Sapsford, University of East Anglia
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I - ECONOMETRIC ANALYSES
pp 19-20
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2 - Estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations: the case of commodity markets
pp 21-43
- By G. S. Maddala, University of Florida, M. Hashem Pesaran, Trinity College, Cambridge
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3 - Modelling expectations formation in primary commodity markets
pp 44-71
- By Christopher L. Gilbert, Queen Mary College, London, and CEPR, Theodosios B. Palaskas, Queen Mary College, London, Montague J. Lord, Inter-American Development Bank, Kenneth S. Wallis, University of Warwick
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4 - The prices of perennial crops: the role of rational expectations and commodity stocks
pp 72-102
- By Pravin K. Trivedi, Indiana University, David M. Newbery, Department of Applied Economics, Cambridge, and CEPR, Michael R. Wickens, University of Southampton and CEPR
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II - SECTORAL STUDIES: FOODS, MATERIALS AND ENERGY
pp 103-104
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5 - Modelling the interactive effects of alternative sets of policies on agricultural prices
pp 105-133
- By Richard E. Just, University of Maryland, David Harvey, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, David Vines, University of Glasgow and CEPR
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6 - Price determination in the market for aluminium
pp 134-156
- By Anthony Bird, Anthony Bird Associates, David Humphreys, Rio Tinto Zinc pic
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7 - Long-run factors in oil price formation
pp 157-180
- By Marian Radetzki, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm
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III - STABILIZATION SCHEMES
pp 181-182
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8 - The role of futures markets as stabilizers of commodity earnings
pp 183-212
- By Andrew J. Hughes Hallett, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne and CEPR, Prathap Ramanujam, University of Glasgow
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9 - Primary commodity prices and exchange-rate volatility
pp 213-239
- By Paul Kofman, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Jean-Marie Viaene, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Casper G. de Vries, Alasdair I. MacBean, University of Lancaster, David Sapsford, University of East Anglia
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10 - Commodity policy: price stabilization versus financing
pp 240-304
- By Roland Herrmann, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel, Kees Burger, Free University, Amsterdam, Hidde P. Smit, Free University, Amsterdam, Philip Daniel, Commonwealth Secretariat, John Spraos, University College, London
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Index
pp 305-310
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Primary Commodity Prices

Economic Models and Policy

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv

Contents
pp v-viii

List of figures
pp ix-x

List of tables
pp xi-xii

Preface
pp xiii-xiv

List of conference participants
pp xv-xvi

1 - Primary commodity prices: an introduction to the major policy and modelling challenges
pp 1-18

I - ECONOMETRIC ANALYSES
pp 19-20

2 - Estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations: the case of commodity markets
pp 21-43

3 - Modelling expectations formation in primary commodity markets
pp 44-71

4 - The prices of perennial crops: the role of rational expectations and commodity stocks
pp 72-102

II - SECTORAL STUDIES: FOODS, MATERIALS AND ENERGY
pp 103-104

5 - Modelling the interactive effects of alternative sets of policies on agricultural prices
pp 105-133

6 - Price determination in the market for aluminium
pp 134-156

7 - Long-run factors in oil price formation
pp 157-180

III - STABILIZATION SCHEMES
pp 181-182

8 - The role of futures markets as stabilizers of commodity earnings
pp 183-212

9 - Primary commodity prices and exchange-rate volatility
pp 213-239

10 - Commodity policy: price stabilization versus financing
pp 240-304

Index
pp 305-310

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Economic Models and Policy

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