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  3. Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty
  • Cited by 45
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    • Publisher:
      Cambridge University Press
      Publication date:
      17 September 2009
      20 July 1989
      ISBN:
      9780511521973
      9780521264440
      9780521126335
      DOI:
      https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511521973
      Dimensions:
      (204 x 159 mm)
      Weight & Pages:
      0.511kg, 260 Pages
      Dimensions:
      (229 x 152 mm)
      Weight & Pages:
      0.39kg, 260 Pages
      • Subjects:
      Economics, Econometrics and Mathematical Methods, Economic Theory
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    • Selected: Digital
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    Subjects:
    Economics, Econometrics and Mathematical Methods, Economic Theory
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    Book description

    The rational expectations revolution and other developments in economics (notably game theory) have fundamentally altered the application of optimal control theory to economic forecasting and planning. In particular, they have shown that economic systems cannot be modelled simplistically on physical systems. However, as the authors of this volume show, these developments have greatly enhanced our understanding of how an economy functions, and now make it possible for optimal control theory to be applied much more effectively to economic modelling and planning. This book is divided into two parts. The first presents the orthodox framework but extends it to allow for multiplicative uncertainty, risk and non-linearities in the econometric model. The second part looks explicitly at the question of expectations. It provides methods by which forward-looking expectations can be treated jointly with the determination of economic policy. It also examines game-theoretic considerations - where, for instance, policy makers may have incentive to renege on their commitments.

    Reviews

    "...a nicely written book that covers a wealth of optimization tools originating from optimal and stochastic control and game theory, in a context of policy making in economics....a good introduction to the topic for those who would want to pursue research in dynamic decision making under uncertainty." Tamer Ba^D,sar, Mathematical Reviews

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