Diagnosing Unemployment

Edmond Malinvaud

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511599309

In this collection of essays. Edmond Malinvaud aims at explaining what he learned as a government statistician, particularly with respect to the unemployment problems of the last two decades. The government expert must forecast for diagnosing spontaneous trends or assessing the likely impact of public decisions. Such forecasts rely on a more or less intensive analysis. To understand the main distinction between frictional and disequilibrium unemployment requires a more rigorous conceptual apparatus than is often acknowledged; this leads to a properly defined Beveridge curve playing the major role. The most vexing issue concerns the effect of real wages on the medium term trend of labour demand; it cannot be well grasped without a good understanding of investment, for which the author presents his reference model.

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Diagnosing Unemployment

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-vi

Contents
pp vii-viii

Preface to the Caffé Lectures 1990
pp ix-x

Acknowledgements
pp xi-xii

Introduction
pp 1-18

1 - Expert diagnosis
pp 19-34

2 - Analysis and forecasting: their respective roles in mastering our destinies
pp 35-45

3 - From statistics to projections
pp 46-61

4 - Diagnosing unemployment trends
pp 62-94

5 - The Beveridge curve
pp 95-115

6 - Real wages and employment – a decade of analysis
pp 116-136

7 - Profitability and factor demands under uncertainty
pp 137-153

Index
pp 154-156

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Diagnosing Unemployment

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