Crude Calculations charts a ground-breaking link between autocratic regime stability and economic liberalization amid the global transition to lower-carbon energy sources. It introduces the rent-conditional reform theory to explain how preserving regime stability constrains economic liberalization in resource-wealthy autocracies and hybrid-regimes. Using comparative case studies of Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, the book traces almost one hundred years of political and legal history to provide a framework for understanding the future of economic liberalization in fossil fuel-rich autocracies. Drawing from archival documents and contemporary interviews, this book explains how natural resource rents are needed to placate threats to regime stability and argues that, contrary to conventional literature, non-democratic, resource-wealthy regimes liberalize their economies during commodity booms and avoid liberalization during downturns. Amid the global energy transition, Crude Calculations details the future political challenges to economic liberalization in fossil fuel-rich autocracies—and why autocracies rich in battery minerals may pursue economic liberalization.

‘Crude Calculations is an insightful analysis of the so-called resource curse, with a particular focus on energy commodities.  Comparing and contrasting Nigeria and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia' s differing development paths, McPherson-Smith makes the case for how these two petrostates' attempts at economic reform are dependent on the oil market and that Nigeria's ability to reform is harder given its higher cost of oil production. The lessons learned from these two countries will be increasingly important as the world diversifies into more renewable forms of energy that are dependent on mineral extraction in different sovereign nations in the Global South.'

The Honorable Jennifer D. J. Nordquist - former US Executive Director, The World Bank

‘'This book offers a refreshing and analytically sophisticated account of the relationship between oil wealth and economic reform. Challenging the received wisdom on resource curse – the idea that natural resources are more often a bane for economic development – Oliver offers a more nuanced perspective on the possibility of economic liberalization in times of high oil prices. Focusing on regulations governing the establishment of new businesses and drawing on granular evidence from two major oil-rich economies, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, the author shows how oil wealth can facilitate reform in boom years. This book should be required reading for anyone interested in the relationship between oil, elites, and prospects for economic reform in the global south.

Adeel Malik - Globe Fellow in the Economies of Muslim Societies, Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies, and Associate Professor, University of Oxford