Regime transitions are complex processes with multiple phases. Because their intricacies are difficult to capture as a whole, they must be disaggregated for purposes of analysis. This study breaks the concept of regime transition into three parts: we seek to explain first political protest, then political liberalization, and finally democratization. These elements constitute the core aspects of regime transitions – namely, how transitions start, unfold, and end. They are consistent with the phases of regime transition outlined in the previous chapter.

We do not mean to imply that regime transitions invariably start with political protest, always dynamically lead to political liberalization, or inevitably result in democratic outcomes. Each of these elements is a variable. The extent to which there are protests, liberalization, and democratization – indeed, whether there is a transition at all and what form it takes – can be expected to alter from country to country. In the next three chapters, we treat each element of transition as a separate problem to be explained. In this chapter, the dependent variable is political protest.

The outbreak of political protest signals to incumbent leaders that the regime faces a crisis of legitimacy. By taking to the streets to express political concerns, citizens demonstrate that they lack confidence that existing governmental institutions are capable of responding to popular demands. By with-drawing consent to be governed, political protesters proclaim that, although the state may remain dominant, it has lost hegemony.