Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-68c7f8b79f-fnvtc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-12-23T15:25:09.870Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 4 - Robust Bayesian Analysis for Econometrics

from Part III - Frontiers of Time-Series Econometrics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 November 2025

Victor Chernozhukov
Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Johannes Hörner
Affiliation:
Yale University, Connecticut
Eliana La Ferrara
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
Iván Werning
Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Get access

Summary

Every 5 years, the World Congress of the Econometric Society brings together scholars from around the world. Leading scholars present state-of-the-art overviews of their areas of research, offering newcomers access to key research in economics. Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Twelfth World Congress consists of papers and commentaries presented at the Twelfth World Congress of the Econometric Society. This two-volume set includes surveys and interpretations of key developments in economics and econometrics, and discussions of future directions for a variety of topics, covering both theory and application. The first volume addresses such topics as contract theory, industrial organization, health and human capital, as well as racial justice, while the second volume includes theoretical and applied papers on climate change, time-series econometrics, and causal inference. These papers are invaluable for experienced economists seeking to broaden their knowledge or young economists new to the field.

Information

Type
Chapter
Information
Advances in Economics and Econometrics
Twelfth World Congress
, pp. 117 - 157
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2026

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Book purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Amir-Ahmadi, P., and Drautzburg, T. (2021). “Identification and inference with ranking restrictions,” Quantitative Economics, 12, 139.10.3982/QE1277CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrews, I., Gentzkow, M., and Shapiro, J. M. (2017). “Measuring the sensitivity of parameter estimates to estimation moments,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132, 15531592.10.1093/qje/qjx023CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrews, I., Gentzkow, M., and Shapiro, J. M. (2020). “On the informativeness of descriptive statistics for structural estimates,” Econometrica, 88, 22312258.10.3982/ECTA16768CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arias, J. E., Caldara, D., and Rubio-Ramírez, J. F. (2019). “The systematic component of monetary policy in SVARs: An agnostic identification procedure,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 101, 113.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.07.011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arias, J. E., Rubio-Ramírez, J. F., and Waggoner, D. F. (2018). “Inference based on SVARs identified with sign and zero restrictions: Theory and applications,” Econometrica, 86, 685720.10.3982/ECTA14468CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Armstrong, T. B., and Kolesár, M. (2021). “Sensitivity analysis using approximate moment condition models,” Quantitative Economics, 12, 77108.10.3982/QE1609CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Artstein, Z. (1983). “Distributions of random sets and random selections,” Israel Journal of Mathematics, 46, 313324.10.1007/BF02762891CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bacchiocchi, E., and Kitagawa, T. (2020). “Locally-but not globally-identified SVARs.” cemmap Working Paper CWP40/20.Google Scholar
Barankin, E. (1960). “Sufficient parameters: Solution of the minimal dimensionality problem,” Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 12, 91118.10.1007/BF01733119CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baumeister, C., and Hamilton, J. D. (2015). “Sign restrictions, structural vector autore-gressions, and useful prior information,” Econometrica, 83, 19631999.10.3982/ECTA12356CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, J. O. (1984). “The robust Bayesian viewpoint.” In Kadane, J. (ed.), Robustness of Bayesian Analysis. Amsterdam: North-Holland, pp. 132.Google Scholar
Berger, J. O. (1985). Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, 2nd ed. New York: Springer.10.1007/978-1-4757-4286-2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, J. O., and Berliner, L. M. (1986). “Robust Bayes and empirical Bayes analysis with ε-contaminated priors,” The Annals of Statistics, 14, 461486.10.1214/aos/1176349933CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, J. O. (1994). “An overview of robust Bayesian analysis,” TEST, 3, 558.10.1007/BF02562676CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Betrò, B., and Ruggeri, F. (1992). “Conditional Γ-minimax actions under convex losses,” Communications in Statistics, Part A – Theory and Methods, 21, 10511066.10.1080/03610929208830830CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bonhomme, S., and Weidner, M. (2022). “Minimizing sensitivity to model misspecification,” Quantitative Economics, 13, 907954.10.3982/QE1930CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, L. D., and Purves, R. (1973). “Measurable selections of extrema,” Annals of Statistics, 1, 902912.10.1214/aos/1176342510CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chamberlain, G. (2000). “Econometric applications of maxmin expected utilities,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15, 625644.10.1002/jae.583CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chamberlain, G., and Leamer, E. E. (1976). “Matrix weighted averages and posterior bounds,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological), 38, 7384.10.1111/j.2517-6161.1976.tb01569.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, X., Christensen, T. M., and Tamer, E. (2018). “Monte Carlo confidence sets for identified sets,” Econometrica, 86, 19652018.10.3982/ECTA14525CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chib, S., and Jeliazkov, I. (2001). “Likelihoods from the Metropolis Hastings output,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96, 270281.10.1198/016214501750332848CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, T. M., and Connault, B. (2023). “Counterfactual sensitivity and robustness,” Econometrica, 91, 263298.10.3982/ECTA17232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M., and Evans, C. L. (1999). “Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?” In Taylor, J. B. and Woodford, M. (eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol. 1, Part A. Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 65148.10.1016/S1574-0048(99)01005-8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DasGupta, A., and Studden, W. J. (1989). “Frequentist behavior of robust Bayes estimates of normal means,” Statistics and Decisions, 7, 333361.Google Scholar
Del Negro, M., and Schorfheide, F. (2011). “Bayesian macroeconometrics.” In Geweke, J., Koop, G., and Dijk, H. V. (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 293389.Google Scholar
Denneberg, D. (1994). Non-additive Measure and Integral. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic.10.1007/978-94-017-2434-0CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dey, D. K., and Micheas, A. C. (2000). “Ranges of posterior expected losses and ε-robust actions.” In Ríos Insua, D. and Ruggeri, F. (eds.), Robust Bayesian Analysis. New York: Springer, pp. 145159.10.1007/978-1-4612-1306-2_8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellsberg, D. (1961). “Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75, 643669.10.2307/1884324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gafarov, B., Meier, M., and Montiel Olea, J. L. (2018). “Delta-method inference for a class of set-identified SVARs,” Journal of Econometrics, 203, 316327.10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.12.004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geweke, J. (1999). “Simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: Inference, development, and communication,” Econometric Reviews, 18, 1126.10.1080/07474939908800428CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giacomini, R., and Kitagawa, T. (2021). “Robust Bayesian inference for set-identified models,” Econometrica, 89, 15191556.10.3982/ECTA16773CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giacomini, R., Kitagawa, T., and Read, M. (2022a). “Robust Bayesian inference in proxy SVARs,” Journal of Econometrics, 228(1), 107126.10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.02.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giacomini, R., Kitagawa, T., and Uhlig, H. (2019). “Estimation under ambiguity.” cemmap Working Paper CWP24/19.10.1920/wp.cem.2019.2419CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giacomini, R., Kitagawa, T., and Volpicella, A. (2022b). “Uncertain identification,” Quantitative Economics, 13(1), 95123.10.3982/QE1671CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilboa, I., and Schmeidler, D. (1993). “Updating ambiguous beliefs,” Journal of Economic Theory, 59, 3349.10.1006/jeth.1993.1003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Good, I. J. (1965). The Estimation of Probabilities. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Gustafson, P. (2000). “Local robustness in Bayesian analysis.” In Ríos Insua, D. and Ruggeri, F. (eds.), Robust Bayesian Analysis. New York: Springer, pp. 7188.10.1007/978-1-4612-1306-2_4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, L. P., and Sargent, T. J. (2001). “Robust control and model uncertainty,” American Economic Review, 91, 6066.10.1257/aer.91.2.60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ho, P. (2023). “Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models,” Journal of Econometrics, 235, 608642.10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.06.004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, P. J. (1973). “The use of Choquet capacities in statistics,” Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, 45, 181191.Google Scholar
Huber, P. J., and Ronchetti, E. M. (2009). Robust Statistics, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley.10.1002/9780470434697CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitamura, Y., Otsu, T., and Evdokimov, K. (2013). “Robustness, infinitesimal neighborhoods, and moment restrictions,” Econometrica, 81, 11851201.Google Scholar
Kline, B., and Tamer, E. (2016). “Bayesian inference in a class of partially identified models,” Quantitative Economics, 7, 329366.10.3982/QE399CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koopmans, T. C., and Reiersol, R. (1950). “The identification of structural characteristics,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 21, 165181.10.1214/aoms/1177729837CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kudō, H. (1967). “On partial prior information and the property of parametric sufficiency.” In Cam, L. L. and Neyman, J. (eds.), Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, vol. 1, pp. 251265.Google Scholar
Lavine, M., Wasserman, L., and Wolpert, R. L. (1991). “Bayesian inference with specified marginals,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 86, 964971.10.1080/01621459.1991.10475139CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leamer, E. E. (1978). Specification Searches. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Leamer, E. E. (1982). “Sets of posterior means with bounded variance priors,” Econo-metrica, 50, 725736.10.2307/1912610CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liao, Y., and Simoni, A. (2013). “Semi-parametric Bayesian partially identified models based on support function.” arXiv:1212.3267.Google Scholar
Manski, C. F. (1981). “Learning and decision making when subjective probabilities have subjective domains,” Annals of Statistics, 9, 5965.10.1214/aos/1176345332CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manski, C. F. (2000). “Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice,” Journal of Econometrics, 95, 415442.10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00045-7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mertens, K., and Ravn, M. O. (2013). “The dynamic effects of personal and corporate income tax changes in the United States,” American Economic Review, 103, 12121247.10.1257/aer.103.4.1212CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Molchanov, I. (2005). Theory of Random Sets. London: Springer.Google Scholar
Molchanov, I., and Molinari, F. (2018). Random Sets in Econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/9781316392973CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moon, H. R., and Schorfheide, F. (2011). “Bayesian and frequentist inference in partially identified models.” NBER Working Paper No. 14882.Google Scholar
Moon, H. R., and Schorfheide, F. (2012). “Bayesian and frequentist inference in partially identified models,” Econometrica, 80, 755782.Google Scholar
Moreno, E., and Cano, J. A. (1995). “Classes of bidimensional priors specified on a collection of sets: Bayesian robustness,” Journal of Statistical Inference and Planning, 46, 325334.10.1016/0378-3758(94)00134-HCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Müller, U. K. (2012). “Measuring prior sensitivity and prior informativeness in large Bayesian models,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, 581597.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.09.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norets, A., and Tang, X. (2014). “Semiparametric inference in dynamic binary choice models,” Review of Economic Studies, 81, 12291262.10.1093/restud/rdt050CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peterson, I. R., James, M. R., and Dupuis, P. (2000). “Minimax optimal control of stochastic uncertain systems with relative entropy constraints,” ISSS Transactions on Automatic Control, 45, 398412.10.1109/9.847720CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pires, C. P. (2002). “A rule for updating ambiguous beliefs,” Theory and Decision, 33, 137152.10.1023/A:1021255808323CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poirier, D. J. (1998). “Revising beliefs in nonidentified models,” Econometric Theory, 14, 483509.10.1017/S0266466698144043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Read, M. (2022). “Algorithms for inference in SVARs identified with sign and zero restrictions,” The Econometrics Journal, 25, 699718.10.1093/ectj/utac009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rieder, H. (1994). Robust Asymptotic Statistics. New York: Springer.10.1007/978-1-4684-0624-5CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ríos Insua, D., and Ruggeri, F. (eds.) (2000). Robust Bayesian Analysis. New York: Springer.10.1007/978-1-4612-1306-2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robbins, H. (1956). “An empirical Bayes approach to statistics,” Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, pp. 157163.Google Scholar
Rothenberg, T. J. (1971). “Identification in parametric models,” Econometrica, 39, 577591.10.2307/1913267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rubio-Ramírez, J. F., Waggoner, D. F., and Zha, T. (2010). “Structural vector autoregres-sions: Theory of identification and algorithms for inference,” Review of Economic Studies, 77, 665696.10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00578.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmeidler, D. (1989). “Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity,” Econometrica, 57, 571587.10.2307/1911053CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shyamalkumar, N. D. (2000). “Likelihood robustness.” In Ríos Insua, D. and Ruggeri, F. (eds.), Robust Bayesian Analysis. New York: Springer, pp. 127143.10.1007/978-1-4612-1306-2_7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sims, C. A., Waggoner, D. F., and Zha, T. (2008). “Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models,” Journal of Econometrics, 146, 255274.10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.08.023CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sivaganesan, S., and Berger, J. O. (1989). “Ranges of posterior measures for priors with unimodal contaminations,” Annals of Statistics, 17, 868889.10.1214/aos/1176347148CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stock, J. H., and Watson, M. W. (2018). “Identification and estimation of dynamic causal effects in macroeconomics using external instruments,” The Economic Journal, 128, 917948.10.1111/ecoj.12593CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uhlig, H. (2005). “What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 381419.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.05.007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uhlig, H. (2017). “Shocks, sign restrictions, and identification.” In Honoré, B., Pakes, A., Piazzesi, M., and Samuelson, L. (eds.), Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Eleventh World Congress. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 95127.10.1017/9781108227223.004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vidakovic, B. (2000). “Γ-Minimax: A paradigm for conservative robust Bayesians.” In Ríos Insua, D. and Ruggeri, F. (eds.), Robust Bayesian Analysis. New York: Springer, pp. 241259.10.1007/978-1-4612-1306-2_13CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wald, A. (1950). Statistical Decision Functions. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Wasserman, L. A. (1990). “Prior envelopes based on belief functions,” The Annals of Statistics, 18, 454464.10.1214/aos/1176347511CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watson, J., and Holmes, C. (2016). “Approximate models and robust decisions,” Statistical Science, 31, 465489.Google Scholar

Accessibility standard: Inaccessible, or known limited accessibility

Why this information is here

This section outlines the accessibility features of this content - including support for screen readers, full keyboard navigation and high-contrast display options. This may not be relevant for you.

Accessibility Information

The PDF of this book is known to have missing or limited accessibility features. We may be reviewing its accessibility for future improvement, but final compliance is not yet assured and may be subject to legal exceptions. If you have any questions, please contact accessibility@cambridge.org.

Content Navigation

Table of contents navigation
Allows you to navigate directly to chapters, sections, or non‐text items through a linked table of contents, reducing the need for extensive scrolling.
Index navigation
Provides an interactive index, letting you go straight to where a term or subject appears in the text without manual searching.

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×