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Chapter 10 describes Bayesian methods for parameter estimation and updating of structural reliability in the light of observations. The chapter begins with a description of the sources and types of uncertainties. Uncertainties are categorized as aleatory or epistemic; however, it is argued that this distinction is not fundamental and makes sense only within the universe of models used for a given project. The Bayesian updating formula is then developed as the product of a prior distribution and the likelihood function, yielding the posterior (updated) distribution of the unknown parameters. Selection of the prior and formulation of the likelihood are discussed in detail. Formulations are presented for parameters in probability distribution models, as well as in mathematical models of physical phenomena. Three formulations are presented for reliability analysis under parameter uncertainties: point estimate, predictive estimate, and confidence interval of the failure probability. The discussion then focuses on the updating of structural reliability in the light of observed events that are characterized by either inequality or equality expressions of one or more limit-state functions. Also presented is the updating of the distribution of random variables in the limit-state function(s) in the light of observed events, e.g., the failure or non-failure of a system.
This chapter provides an introduction to several fundamental methods for analyzing data from clinical trials, including an overview of two very important and related concepts: confidence intervals and tests of hypotheses. In making statistical inference, one draws a sample from a population and computes one or more statistics. Most confidence intervals use similar methods. In general, a confidence interval is made up of a point estimate, the standard error of that estimate, and a tabular value. The method of intention to treat has become the standard for analyzing data from clinical trials. Regulatory organizations such as FDA and the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) recommend that the primary efficacy analysis be based on the intention to treat principle. Multiple methods have been used to impute missing data. A method that was very commonly used in the past is called 'last observation carried forward' (LOCF).
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