To anticipate relationships between future climate change and societal violence, we need theory to establish causal links and case studies to estimate interactions between driving forces. Here, we couple evolutionary ecology with a machine-learning statistical approach to investigate the long-term effects of climate change, population growth, and inequality on intergroup conflict among farmers in the North American Southwest. Through field investigations, we generate a new archaeological dataset of farming settlements in the Bears Ears National Monument spanning 1,300 years (0 to AD 1300) to evaluate the direct and interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, climate shocks, demography, and wealth inequality on habitation site defensibility—our proxy for intergroup conflict. We find that conflict peaked during dry, warm intervals when population density and inequality were highest. Results support our theoretical predictions and suggest cascading effects, whereby xeric conditions favored population aggregation into an increasingly small, heterogenous area, which increased resource stress and inequality and promoted intergroup conflict over limited productive patches. This dynamic likely initiated feedback loops, whereby conflict exacerbated shortfalls and fostered mistrust, which drove further aggregation and competition. Results reveal complex interactions among socioclimatological conditions, all of which may have contributed to regional depopulation during the thirteenth century AD.

This theoretical and empirical study describes and explains the patterns of changes in domestic illicit trade and related transnational illicit flows of goods, services and money during the extreme social crises based on the case of the war in Ukraine. Depending on the legal status of the civil circulation of items, illicit trade is categorized into two groups: illicit (criminal) trade outside the economic sphere; and illicit (illegal) trade within the economic sphere. Typical destructive practices and their peculiarities during the war are considered in each group of illicit trade with the use of quantitative and qualitative methods. In terms of the dichotomy “war as a cause and consequence of crime”, this article addresses significant transformations in established criminal activities outside the official economy, such as drug trafficking and human trafficking, while also highlighting newly emerging crimes, specifically the illegal movement of conscripts across national borders. Furthermore, the article explores illegal trade within the economy, focusing on the trade in excisable goods and the new growing issue of abuse of humanitarian aid. The authors discuss the main deficiencies in adequate counteraction related to both war circumstances and systematic problems of state institutions, in particular, the criminal justice system.

This article explores the financial and geopolitical networks behind the independence of Gran Colombia. It shows that the failure to obtain official British government support for independence was compensated for by the development of a network of private individuals and partnerships that supplied large quantities of arms, equipment and men. A Colombian government document granting ‘Powers’ to London intermediaries was crucial to the construction of this network. We analyse who the key players were and how the network operated. By exploring the decisions and actions of merchants through the lens of risk, trust, credit and networks, we provide a fresh insight into the wider process of independence in Gran Colombia.

Traditionally, historians believed that taking captives was a major goal in Mexica warfare, and this tendency has even been given as a reason why the Spanish conquistadors defeated the Mexica. Although historians have largely revised these conclusions, the perception that captives were important to Aztec strategy and warfare persists. In this article I argue that the need for captives was not great enough to affect Aztec military strategy or battlefield conduct. First, rituals only needed a small number of victims, which could easily be acquired through the normal course of battle, and thus did not constitute a specific objective. Second, Mexica strategy focused on economic objectives, rather than captive taking. Finally, individual warriors were not well equipped to take prisoners. Although captives played a vital role in Mexica society, the practice should be thought of as opportunistic, rather than strategic.

Although paper note issuance increased dramatically in Argentina during the Triple Alliance War, inflation was not significant. This occurred because only a fraction of the increase in paper bills led to an expansion of the money supply, the rest being currency substitution. On the other hand, an increase in the demand for money for transactions was generated by rapid economic growth.

The Middle Mississippian component at Aztalan was a mixed, Late Woodland / Mississippian occupation sited within a heavily fortified habitation and mound center that is located on a tributary of the Rock River in Wisconsin. It represents the northernmost large Cahokian-related village recorded. The Oneota Lake Koshkonong Locality of the Rock River drainage is located approximately 20 km south of Aztalan, and it consists of a 25 km2 area along the northwest shore with a small cluster of habitation settlements. Sixty-eight radiocarbon measurements have been obtained from Aztalan, and 52 from Oneota settlements in the Lake Koshkonong Locality. We discuss how to best interpret this dataset, and we use Bayesian chronological modeling to analyze these dates. The results suggest that (1) Aztalan's Late Woodland (Kekoskee phase) occupation began in the AD 900s or early AD 1000s, (2) Aztalan's Mississippian occupation ceased in the AD 1200s, (3) Oneota occupations at Lake Koshkonong began after AD 1050 and were established by the AD 1200s, and (4) Oneota occupations at Lake Koshkonong continued after Aztalan's Mississippian abandonment until at least the late AD 1300s. Additionally, the results demonstrate that Aztalan was fortified with a palisade with bastions for much of the Mississippian occupation, suggesting a contested presence in a multiethnic landscape.

In the Lake Titicaca Basin during the Late Intermediate period (LIP; AD 1100–1450), people's lives were overwhelmingly structured by warfare. Previous research in the region has shed light on how martial conflict between and possibly among competing ethnic groups motivated people to live in fortified villages on defensive hilltops. At the same time, there was a centuries-long drought that threatened agricultural production. Little is known about the plant use of people living in hillforts during this arduous time. Drawing on macrobotanical information collected from Ayawiri, one of the largest hillforts in the northern Titicaca Basin, I argue that the food stuffs and plants used were locally grown. Additionally, these findings indicate a possible departure from earlier symbolically charged and ritually important plant consumption practices based on the lack of imported maize. This research sheds light on how people adapted their domestic and agricultural strategies to warfare and climate change during the LIP.

Upon gaining independence, most Spanish American countries had accumulated a substantial external debt, and by 1829 each defaulted. It took decades for these countries to settle their debts and even longer for them to access new loans. We argue that a major factor influencing the pattern of debt service was the incidence of war. War created incentives for governments to channel scarce resources to «emergency» spending and domestic debt service, rather than to the repayment of the foreign debt. Interestingly, we detect an asymmetry between countries long in good standing with creditors and those that had only recently settled. Countries that had established a longer record of continuous debt service were far less likely to default in times of war. We also find that international wars were responsible for the largest effects.

Examinamos las diferencias en las características del suicidio entre las áreas afectadas directa e indirectamente por las actividades bélicas y en los períodos de guerra y posguerra según las variables siguientes: tasa de suicidio, sexo, edad y método de suicidio. El análisis se realizó sobre 5.349 suicidios consumados en el período 1993-1998 (los años de la guerra y la posguerra). Las tasas de suicidio en la República de Croacia oscilaban en los períodos prebélico, de guerra y de posguerra (1985-2000), pero sin diferencias significativas. En las áreas afectadas directamente por la contienda, la tasa de suicidio fue significativamente más baja que en otras áreas durante el período de estudio de 1993-1998 (X2 = 10,3245; P = 0,0017). El número de suicidios en ambos sexos disminuyó en las áreas afectadas directamente por la guerra, y lo hizo más en los hombres que en las mujeres; la diferencia entre los sexos fue estadísticamente significativa (X2 = 3,6697; P = 0,055). Las personas de mediana edad y mayores eran la población con riesgo de suicidio alto en ambas áreas (t = 1,76; P = 0,078). Hubo diferencias significativas en los métodos de suicidio entre las áreas que eran de guerra y las que no (X2 = 108,8473; P = 0,001). Las armas de fuego o los ingenios explosivos fueron los métodos utilizados para el suicidio significativamente más en las áreas afectadas directamente por la guerra que en otras áreas, mientras que el ahorcamiento se utilizó con más frecuencia en las áreas afectadas indirectamente por la contienda.