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The millisecond pulsar PSR J1713$+$0747 is a high-priority target for pulsar timing array experiments due to its long-term timing stability, and bright, narrow pulse profile. In April 2021, PSR J1713$+$0747 underwent a significant profile change event, observed by several telescopes worldwide. Using the broad bandwidth and polarimetric fidelity of the Ultra-Wideband Low-frequency receiver on Murriyang, CSIRO’s Parkes radio telescope, we investigated the long-term spectro-polarimetric behaviour of this profile change in detail. We highlight the broad-bandwidth nature of the event, which exhibits frequency dependence that is inconsistent with cold-plasma propagation effects. We also find that spectral and temporal variations are stronger in one of the orthogonal polarisation modes than the other and observe mild variations ($\sim 3$ – $5\,\sigma$ significance) in circular polarisation above 1 400 MHz following the event. However, the linear polarisation position angle remained remarkably stable in the profile leading edge throughout the event. With over three years of data post-event, we find that the profile has not yet recovered back to its original state, indicating a long-term asymptotic recovery, or a potential reconfiguration of the pulsar’s magnetic field. These findings favour a magnetospheric origin of the profile change event over a line-of-sight propagation effect in the interstellar medium.
We present the discovery of two extended, low surface-brightness radio continuum sources, each consisting of a near-circular body and an extended tail of emission, nicknamed Stingray 1 (ASKAP J0129–5350) and Stingray 2 (ASKAP J0245–5642). Both are found in the direction of the Magellanic Stream (MS) and were discovered in the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU) survey at 944 MHz. We combine the ASKAP data with low-frequency radio observations from the GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky MWA Survey (GLEAM) to conduct a radio continuum analysis. galaxy pairs or groups, and Odd Radio Circles (ORCs). We explore both Galactic/near Galactic scenarios, including runaway or circumgalactic supernova remnants (SNRs) and parentless pulsar-wind nebulae (PWNe), and extragalactic scenarios including radio active galactic nuclei (AGNs), dying radio galaxies, galaxy clusters, galaxy pairs or groups, head-tail radio galaxies, and ORCs, as well as the possibility that the morphology is due to a chance alignment. The Stingrays exhibit non-thermal emission with spectral indices of $\alpha=-0.89\pm0.09$ for Stingray 1 and $\alpha=-1.77\pm0.06$ for Stingray 2. We find that none of the proposed scenarios can explain all of the observed properties, however we determine it most likely that their shape is caused by some kind of complex environmental interaction. The most likely scenario from the available data is that of a head-tail radio galaxy, but more data is required for a definitive classification.
We present the serendipitous radio-continuum discovery of a likely Galactic supernova remnant (SNR) G305.4–2.2. This object displays a remarkable circular symmetry in shape, making it one of the most circular Galactic SNRs known. Nicknamed Teleios due to its symmetry, it was detected in the new Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU) radio–continuum images with an angular size of 1 320$^{\prime\prime}$$\times$1 260$^{\prime\prime}$ and PA = 0$^\circ$. While there is a hint of possible H$\alpha$ and gamma-ray emission, Teleios is exclusively seen at radio–continuum frequencies. Interestingly, Teleios is not only almost perfectly symmetric, but it also has one of the lowest surface brightnesses discovered among Galactic SNRs and a steep spectral index of $\alpha$=–0.6$\pm$0.3. Our best estimates from Hi studies and the $\Sigma$–D relation place Teleios as a type Ia SNR at a distance of either $\sim$2.2 kpc (near-side) or $\sim$7.7 kpc (far-side). This indicates two possible scenarios, either a young (under 1 000 yr) or a somewhat older SNR (over 10 000 yr). With a corresponding diameter of 14/48 pc, our evolutionary studies place Teleios at the either early or late Sedov phase, depending on the distance/diameter estimate. However, our modelling also predicts X-ray emission, which we do not see in the present generation of eROSITA images. We also explored a type Iax explosion scenario that would point to a much closer distance of $\lt$1 kpc and Teleios size of only $\sim$3.3 pc, which would be similar to the only known type Iax remnant SN1181. Unfortunately, all examined scenarios have their challenges, and no definitive Supernova (SN) origin type can be established at this stage. Remarkably, Teleios has retained its symmetrical shape as it aged even to such a diameter, suggesting expansion into a rarefied and isotropic ambient medium. The low radio surface brightness and the lack of pronounced polarisation can be explained by a high level of ambient rotation measure (RM), with the largest RM being observed at Teleios’s centre.
We present the first radio–continuum detection of the circumstellar shell around the well-known WN8 type Wolf-Rayet star WR16 at 943.5 MHz using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU) survey. At this frequency, the shell has a measured flux density of 72.2$\pm$7.2 mJy. Using previous Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) measurements at 2.4, 4.8, and 8.64 GHz, as well as the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU) observations of the star itself, we determine a spectral index of $\alpha\,=\,+0.74\pm0.02$, indicating thermal emission. We propose that the shell and star both exhibit thermal emission, supported by the its appearance in near-infrared and H$\alpha$ observations. The latest Gaia parallax is used to determine a distance of 2.28$\pm$0.09 kpc. This star is well known for its surrounding circular nebulosity, and using the distance and an angular diameter of $8.^{\prime}42$, we determine the shell size to be 5.57$\pm$0.22 pc. We use the Gaia proper motion (PM) of WR16 to determine peculiar velocities of the star as $V_{\alpha}(pec) =$ –45.3$\pm$5.4 km s$^{-1}$ and $V_{\delta}(pec) =$ 22.8$\pm$4.7 km s$^{-1}$, which indicates that the star is moving in a north-west direction, and translates to a peculiar tangential velocity to be 50.7$\pm$6.9 km s$^{-1}$. We also use these proper motion (PM) to determine the shell’s origin, estimate an age of $\sim 9500\pm 1300$ yr, and determine its average expansion velocity to be $280\pm40$ km s$^{-1}$. This average expansion velocity suggests that the previous transitional phase is a Luminous Blue Variable (LBV) phase, rather than a Red Super Giant (RSG) phase. We also use the measured flux at 943.5 MHz to determine a mass-loss rate of $1.753\times 10^{-5}\,{\rm M}_\odot\,$yr$^{-1}$, and use this to determine a lower-limit on ionising photons of $N_{UV} \gt 1.406\times 10^{47}\,\textit{s}^{-1}$.
We present a new radio continuum study of the Large Magellanic Cloud supernova remnant (SNR) MC SNR J0519–6902. With a diameter of $\sim$8 pc, this SNR shows a radio ring-like morphology with three bright regions towards the north, east, and south. Its linear polarisation is prominent with average values of $5\pm1$% and $6\pm1$% at 5 500 and 9 000 MHz, and we find a spectral index of ${-0.62\pm0.02}$, typical of a young SNR. The average rotation measure is estimated at ${-124\pm83}$ rad m$^{-2}$ and the magnetic field strength at ${\sim11}\,\mu$G. We also estimate an equipartition magnetic field of ${72\pm 5}\,\mu$G and minimum explosion energy of E$_\textrm{ min}$ = 2.6$\times10^{48}$ erg. Finally, we identified an H i cloud that may be associated with MC SNR J0519–6902, located in the southeastern part of the remnant, along with a potential wind-bubble cavity.
We present the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU) survey conducted with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP). EMU aims to deliver the touchstone radio atlas of the southern hemisphere. We introduce EMU and review its science drivers and key science goals, updated and tailored to the current ASKAP five-year survey plan. The development of the survey strategy and planned sky coverage is presented, along with the operational aspects of the survey and associated data analysis, together with a selection of diagnostics demonstrating the imaging quality and data characteristics. We give a general description of the value-added data pipeline and data products before concluding with a discussion of links to other surveys and projects and an outline of EMU’s legacy value.
We present a re-discovery of G278.94+1.35a as possibly one of the largest known Galactic supernova remnants (SNRs) – that we name Diprotodon. While previously established as a Galactic SNR, Diprotodon is visible in our new Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU) and GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky MWA (GLEAM) radio continuum images at an angular size of $3{{{{.\!^\circ}}}}33\times3{{{{.\!^\circ}}}}23$, much larger than previously measured. At the previously suggested distance of 2.7 kpc, this implies a diameter of 157$\times$152 pc. This size would qualify Diprotodon as the largest known SNR and pushes our estimates of SNR sizes to the upper limits. We investigate the environment in which the SNR is located and examine various scenarios that might explain such a large and relatively bright SNR appearance. We find that Diprotodon is most likely at a much closer distance of $\sim$1 kpc, implying its diameter is 58$\times$56 pc and it is in the radiative evolutionary phase. We also present a new Fermi-LAT data analysis that confirms the angular extent of the SNR in gamma rays. The origin of the high-energy emission remains somewhat puzzling, and the scenarios we explore reveal new puzzles, given this unexpected and unique observation of a seemingly evolved SNR having a hard GeV spectrum with no breaks. We explore both leptonic and hadronic scenarios, as well as the possibility that the high-energy emission arises from the leftover particle population of a historic pulsar wind nebula.
Dietary n-3 PUFA may have potential benefits in preventing peptic ulcer disease (PUD). However, data from observational epidemiological studies are limited. Thus, we conducted a Mendelian randomisation analysis to reveal the causal impact of n-3 PUFA on PUD. Genetic variants strongly associated with plasma levels of total or individual n-3 PUFA including plant-derived α-linolenic acid and marine-derived EPA, DPA and DHA were enrolled as instrumental variables. Effect size estimates of the n-3 PUFA-associated genetic variants with PUD were evaluated using data from the UK biobank. Per one sd increase in the level of total n-3 PUFA in plasma was significantly associated with a lower risk of PUD (OR = 0·91; 95 % CI 0·85, 0·99; P = 0·020). The OR were 0·81 (95 % CI 0·67, 0·97) for EPA, 0·72 (95 % CI 0·58, 0·91) for DPA and 0·87 (95 % CI 0·80, 0·94) for DHA. Genetically predicted α-linolenic acid levels in plasma had no significant association with the risk of PUD (OR = 5·41; 95 % CI 0·70, 41·7). Genetically predicted plasma levels of n-3 PUFA were inversely associated with the risk of PUD, especially marine-based n-3 PUFA. Such findings may have offered an effective and feasible strategy for the primary prevention of PUD.
As TeV gamma-ray astronomy progresses into the era of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), instantaneously following up on gamma-ray transients is becoming more important than ever. To this end, a worldwide network of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes has been proposed. Australia is ideally suited to provide coverage of part of the Southern Hemisphere sky inaccessible to H.E.S.S. in Namibia and the upcoming CTA-South in Chile. This study assesses the sources detectable by a small, transient-focused array in Australia based on CTA telescope designs. The TeV emission of extragalactic sources (including the majority of gamma-ray transients) can suffer significant absorption by the extragalactic background light. As such, we explored the improvements possible by implementing stereoscopic and topological triggers, as well as lowered image cleaning thresholds, to access lower energies. We modelled flaring gamma-ray sources based on past measurements from the satellite-based gamma-ray telescope Fermi-LAT. We estimate that an array of four Medium-Sized Telescopes (MSTs) would detect $\sim$24 active galactic nucleus flares >5$\sigma$ per year, up to a redshift of $z\approx1.5$. Two MSTs achieved $\sim$80–90% of the detections of four MSTs. The modelled Galactic transients were detectable within the observation time of one night, 11 of the 21 modelled gamma-ray bursts were detectable, as were $\sim$10% of unidentified transients. An array of MST-class telescopes would thus be a valuable complementary telescope array for transient TeV gamma-ray astronomy.
We report the discovery of a bow-shock pulsar wind nebula (PWN), named Potoroo, and the detection of a young pulsar J1638$-$4713 that powers the nebula. We present a radio continuum study of the PWN based on 20-cm observations obtained from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) and MeerKAT. PSR J1638$-$4713 was identified using Parkes radio telescope observations at frequencies above 3 GHz. The pulsar has the second-highest dispersion measure of all known radio pulsars (1 553 pc cm$^{-3}$), a spin period of 65.74 ms and a spin-down luminosity of $\dot{E}=6.1\times10^{36}$ erg s$^{-1}$. The PWN has a cometary morphology and one of the greatest projected lengths among all the observed pulsar radio tails, measuring over 21 pc for an assumed distance of 10 kpc. The remarkably long tail and atypically steep radio spectral index are attributed to the interplay of a supernova reverse shock and the PWN. The originating supernova remnant is not known so far. We estimated the pulsar kick velocity to be in the range of 1 000–2 000 km s$^{-1}$ for ages between 23 and 10 kyr. The X-ray counterpart found in Chandra data, CXOU J163802.6$-$471358, shows the same tail morphology as the radio source but is shorter by a factor of 10. The peak of the X-ray emission is offset from the peak of the radio total intensity (Stokes $\rm I$) emission by approximately 4.7$^{\prime\prime}$, but coincides well with circularly polarised (Stokes $\rm V$) emission. No infrared counterpart was found.
COVID-19 lockdowns increased the risk of mental health problems, especially for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, despite its importance, little is known about the protective factors for ASD children during the lockdowns.
Methods
Based on the Shanghai Autism Early Developmental Cohort, 188 ASD children with two visits before and after the strict Omicron lockdown were included; 85 children were lockdown-free, while 52 and 51 children were under the longer and the shorter durations of strict lockdown, respectively. We tested the association of the lockdown group with the clinical improvement and also the modulation effects of parent/family-related factors on this association by linear regression/mixed-effect models. Within the social brain structures, we examined the voxel-wise interaction between the grey matter volume and the identified modulation effects.
Results
Compared with the lockdown-free group, the ASD children experienced the longer duration of strict lockdown had less clinical improvement (β = 0.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.19–0.79], p = 0.001) and this difference was greatest for social cognition (2.62 [0.94–4.30], p = 0.002). We found that this association was modulated by parental agreeableness in a protective way (−0.11 [−0.17 to −0.05], p = 0.002). This protective effect was enhanced in the ASD children with larger grey matter volumes in the brain's mentalizing network, including the temporal pole, the medial superior frontal gyrus, and the superior temporal gyrus.
Conclusions
This longitudinal neuroimaging cohort study identified that the parental agreeableness interacting with the ASD children's social brain development reduced the negative impact on clinical symptoms during the strict lockdown.
We present the third data release from the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA) project. The release contains observations of 32 pulsars obtained using the 64-m Parkes ‘Murriyang’ radio telescope. The data span is up to 18 yr with a typical cadence of 3 weeks. This data release is formed by combining an updated version of our second data release with $\sim$3 yr of more recent data primarily obtained using an ultra-wide-bandwidth receiver system that operates between 704 and 4032 MHz. We provide calibrated pulse profiles, flux density dynamic spectra, pulse times of arrival, and initial pulsar timing models. We describe methods for processing such wide-bandwidth observations and compare this data release with our previous release.
As TeV gamma-ray astronomy progresses into the era of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), there is a desire for the capacity to instantaneously follow up on transient phenomena and continuously monitor gamma-ray flux at energies above $10^{12}\,\mathrm{eV}$. To this end, a worldwide network of Imaging Air Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs) is required to provide triggers for CTA observations and complementary continuous monitoring. An IACT array sited in Australia would contribute significant coverage of the Southern Hemisphere sky. Here, we investigate the suitability of a small IACT array and how different design factors influence its performance. Monte Carlo simulations were produced based on the Small-Sized Telescope (SST) and Medium-Sized Telescope (MST) designs from CTA. Angular resolution improved with larger baseline distances up to 277 m between telescopes, and energy thresholds were lower at 1 000 m altitude than at 0 m. The ${\sim} 300\,\mathrm{GeV}$ energy threshold of MSTs proved more suitable for observing transients than the ${\sim}1.2\,\mathrm{TeV}$ threshold of SSTs. An array of four MSTs at 1 000 m was estimated to give a 5.7$\sigma$ detection of an RS Ophiuchi-like nova eruption from a 4-h observation. We conclude that an array of four MST-class IACTs at an Australian site would ideally complement the capabilities of CTA.
Non-isothermal reactive transport in complicated porous media is diverse in nature and industrial applications. There are challenges in the modelling of multiple physicochemical processes in multiscale pore structures with various length scales ranging from nanometres to micrometres. This study focuses on coke combustion during in situ crude oil combustion techniques. A micro-continuum model was developed to perform an image-based simulation of coke combustion through a multiscale porous medium. The simulation coupled weakly compressible gas flow, species transport, conjugate heat transfer, heterogeneous coke oxidation kinetics and structural evolution. The unresolved nanoporous coke region was treated as a continuum, for which the random pore model, permeability model and species diffusivity model were integrated as sub-grid models to account for the sub-resolution reactive surface area, Darcy flow and Knudsen diffusion, respectively. A Pe–Da diagram was provided to present five characteristic combustion regimes covering the ignition temperature and air flux in realistic field operations and laboratory measurements. The present model proved to achieve more accurate predictions of the feasible ignition temperature than previous models. Compared with the air flux of $\phi \sim O\textrm{(1) s}{\textrm{m}^\textrm{3}}(\textrm{air})\;{({\textrm{m}^\textrm{2}}\ \textrm{h})^{ - 1}}$ in the field, the increasing air flux in the laboratory transformed the combustion regime from diffusion-limited to convection-limited, which led to an overpredicted burning temperature. Reactive fingering combustion was analysed to understand the potential risks in some experimental measurements. The findings provide a better understanding of coke combustion and can help engineers design sustainable combustion methods. The developed image-based model allows other types of multiscale and nonlinear reactive transport to be simulated.
The Variables and Slow Transients Survey (VAST) on the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) is designed to detect highly variable and transient radio sources on timescales from 5 s to $\sim\!5$ yr. In this paper, we present the survey description, observation strategy and initial results from the VAST Phase I Pilot Survey. This pilot survey consists of $\sim\!162$ h of observations conducted at a central frequency of 888 MHz between 2019 August and 2020 August, with a typical rms sensitivity of $0.24\ \mathrm{mJy\ beam}^{-1}$ and angular resolution of $12-20$ arcseconds. There are 113 fields, each of which was observed for 12 min integration time, with between 5 and 13 repeats, with cadences between 1 day and 8 months. The total area of the pilot survey footprint is 5 131 square degrees, covering six distinct regions of the sky. An initial search of two of these regions, totalling 1 646 square degrees, revealed 28 highly variable and/or transient sources. Seven of these are known pulsars, including the millisecond pulsar J2039–5617. Another seven are stars, four of which have no previously reported radio detection (SCR J0533–4257, LEHPM 2-783, UCAC3 89–412162 and 2MASS J22414436–6119311). Of the remaining 14 sources, two are active galactic nuclei, six are associated with galaxies and the other six have no multi-wavelength counterparts and are yet to be identified.
The current epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) significantly affects human health worldwide. Activation of brown adipocytes and browning of white adipocytes are considered as a promising molecular target for T2DM treatment. Mulberry leaf, a traditional Chinese medicine, has been demonstrated to have multi-biological activities, including anti-diabetic and anti-inflammatory effects. Our experimental results showed that mulberry leaf significantly alleviated the disorder of glucose and lipid metabolism in T2DM rats. In addition, mulberry leaf induced browning of inguinal white adipose tissue (IWAT) by enhancing the expressions of brown-mark genes as well as beige-specific genes, including uncoupling protein-1 (UCP1), peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma coactivator 1 alpha (PGC-1α), peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARα), PRD1-BF-1-RIZ1 homologous domain containing protein 16 (PRDM16), cell death inducing DFFA-like effector A (Cidea), CD137 and transmembrane protein 26 (TMEM26). Mulberry leaf also activated brown adipose tissue (BAT) by increasing the expressions of brown-mark genes including UCP1, PGC-1α, PPARα, PRDM16 and Cidea. Moreover, mulberry leaf enhanced the expression of nuclear respiratory factor 1 (NRF-1) and mitochondrial transcription factor A (TFAM) genes that are responsible for mitochondrial biogenesis in IWAT and BAT. Importantly, mulberry leaf also increased the expression of UCP1 and carnitine palmitoyl transferase 1 (CPT-1) proteins in both IWAT and BAT via a mechanism involving AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) and PGC-1α pathway. In conclusion, our findings identify the role of mulberry leaf in inducing adipose browning, indicating that mulberry leaf may be used as a candidate browning agent for the treatment of T2DM.
To understand the characteristics and influencing factors related to cluster infections in Jiangsu Province, China, we investigated case reports to explore transmission dynamics and influencing factors of scales of cluster infection. The effectiveness of interventions was assessed by changes in the time-dependent reproductive number (Rt). From 25th January to 29th February, Jiangsu Province reported a total of 134 clusters involving 617 cases. Household clusters accounted for 79.85% of the total. The time interval from onset to report of index cases was 8 days, which was longer than that of secondary cases (4 days) (χ2 = 22.763, P < 0.001) and had a relationship with the number of secondary cases (the correlation coefficient (r) = 0.193, P = 0.040). The average interval from onset to report was different between family cluster cases (4 days) and community cluster cases (7 days) (χ2 = 28.072, P < 0.001). The average time interval from onset to isolation of patients with secondary infection (5 days) was longer than that of patients without secondary infection (3 days) (F = 9.761, P = 0.002). Asymptomatic patients and non-familial clusters had impacts on the size of the clusters. The average reduction in the Rt value in family clusters (26.00%, 0.26 ± 0.22) was lower than that in other clusters (37.00%, 0.37 ± 0.26) (F = 4.400, P = 0.039). Early detection of asymptomatic patients and early reports of non-family clusters can effectively weaken cluster infections.
We describe 14 yr of public data from the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA), an ongoing project that is producing precise measurements of pulse times of arrival from 26 millisecond pulsars using the 64-m Parkes radio telescope with a cadence of approximately 3 weeks in three observing bands. A comprehensive description of the pulsar observing systems employed at the telescope since 2004 is provided, including the calibration methodology and an analysis of the stability of system components. We attempt to provide full accounting of the reduction from the raw measured Stokes parameters to pulse times of arrival to aid third parties in reproducing our results. This conversion is encapsulated in a processing pipeline designed to track provenance. Our data products include pulse times of arrival for each of the pulsars along with an initial set of pulsar parameters and noise models. The calibrated pulse profiles and timing template profiles are also available. These data represent almost 21 000 h of recorded data spanning over 14 yr. After accounting for processes that induce time-correlated noise, 22 of the pulsars have weighted root-mean-square timing residuals of $<\!\!1\,\mu\text{s}$ in at least one radio band. The data should allow end users to quickly undertake their own gravitational wave analyses, for example, without having to understand the intricacies of pulsar polarisation calibration or attain a mastery of radio frequency interference mitigation as is required when analysing raw data files.
We describe an ultra-wide-bandwidth, low-frequency receiver recently installed on the Parkes radio telescope. The receiver system provides continuous frequency coverage from 704 to 4032 MHz. For much of the band (${\sim}60\%$), the system temperature is approximately 22 K and the receiver system remains in a linear regime even in the presence of strong mobile phone transmissions. We discuss the scientific and technical aspects of the new receiver, including its astronomical objectives, as well as the feed, receiver, digitiser, and signal processor design. We describe the pipeline routines that form the archive-ready data products and how those data files can be accessed from the archives. The system performance is quantified, including the system noise and linearity, beam shape, antenna efficiency, polarisation calibration, and timing stability.
Influenza activity is subject to environmental factors. Accurate forecasting of influenza epidemics would permit timely and effective implementation of public health interventions, but it remains challenging. In this study, we aimed to develop random forest (RF) regression models including meterological factors to predict seasonal influenza activity in Jiangsu provine, China. Coefficient of determination (R2) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were employed to evaluate the models' performance. Three RF models with optimum parameters were constructed to predict influenza like illness (ILI) activity, influenza A and B (Flu-A and Flu-B) positive rates in Jiangsu. The models for Flu-B and ILI presented excellent performance with MAPEs <10%. The predicted values of the Flu-A model also matched the real trend very well, although its MAPE reached to 19.49% in the test set. The lagged dependent variables were vital predictors in each model. Seasonality was more pronounced in the models for ILI and Flu-A. The modification effects of the meteorological factors and their lagged terms on the prediction accuracy differed across the three models, while temperature always played an important role. Notably, atmospheric pressure made a major contribution to ILI and Flu-B forecasting. In brief, RF models performed well in influenza activity prediction. Impacts of meteorological factors on the predictive models for influenza activity are type-specific.