Paleontology provides insights into the history of the planet, from the origins of life billions of years ago to the biotic changes of the Recent. The scope of paleontological research is as vast as it is varied, and the field is constantly evolving. In an effort to identify “Big Questions” in paleontology, experts from around the world came together to build a list of priority questions the field can address in the years ahead. The 89 questions presented herein (grouped within 11 themes) represent contributions from nearly 200 international scientists. These questions touch on common themes including biodiversity drivers and patterns, integrating data types across spatiotemporal scales, applying paleontological data to contemporary biodiversity and climate issues, and effectively utilizing innovative methods and technology for new paleontological insights. In addition to these theoretical questions, discussions touch upon structural concerns within the field, advocating for an increased valuation of specimen-based research, protection of natural heritage sites, and the importance of collections infrastructure, along with a stronger emphasis on human diversity, equity, and inclusion. These questions offer a starting point—an initial nucleus of consensus that paleontologists can expand on—for engaging in discussions, securing funding, advocating for museums, and fostering continued growth in shared research directions.

We compare different forms of communication in the context of cheap talk sender-receiver games. While previous experiments find evidence supporting the comparative statics prediction that more preference divergence leads to less information transmission, there is also a consistent pattern of overcommunication and exaggeration, not predicted by theory, in which subjects convey more information than predicted in equilibrium. The latter of these findings may be due to the restricted nature of the message space in most experimental cheap talk games, encouraging subjects to engage in exaggeration artificially, rather than allowing it to emerge naturally. We tested this hypothesis with an incentivized lab experiment, and found evidence both phenomena persist with natural language (text-based) communication. Moreover, we probe the consequences of this expanded message space for outcomes, showing that senders benefit more than receivers, but that the most notable effect is that text messages improve efficiency.

Forecasting of armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictions, they often lack individual-level uncertainty estimates, limiting their usefulness for decision-making. Several approaches exist to estimate uncertainty, such as parametric and Bayesian prediction intervals, bootstrapping, quantile regression, but these methods often rely on restrictive assumptions, struggle to provide well-calibrated intervals across the full range of outcomes, or are computationally intensive. Conformal prediction offers a model-agnostic alternative that guarantees a user-specified level of coverage but typically provides only marginal coverage, potentially resulting in non-uniform coverage across different regions of the outcome space. In this article, we introduce a novel extension called bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP), which enhances standard conformal prediction (SCP) by ensuring consistent coverage rates across user-defined subsets (bins) of the outcome variable. We apply BCCP to simulated data as well as the forecasting of fatalities from armed conflicts, and demonstrate that it provides well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of the outcome. Compared to SCP, BCCP offers improved local coverage, though this comes at the cost of slightly wider prediction intervals.

A structurally transforming multi-mode product can realize a changing set of functions across its modes, replacing multiple related products while offering increased cost, space, and time efficiency. However, there is a lack of connected methods that address the additional design complexities due to the product’s physical transformations and the resulting structural component-sharing between modes. A framework, grounded in standard design practice and built upon existing methods, is proposed to help navigate the two most impacted design stages: 1. Problem Definition and 2. Conceptual Design. The Problem Definition stage in this new framework involves identifying the external factor that determines the product’s modes and defining the functional requirements for the modes and transformation methods. The Conceptual Design stage involves iteratively linking conceptualized forms of each mode to adjacent modes through conceptualized transformation methods. The framework is demonstrated in a case study involving the design of a structurally transforming multi-mode piece of children’s furniture that transforms between a cradle, floor seat and a multipurpose toddler step stool. The proposed framework is a promising step toward systematically, cohesively, and comprehensively addressing design challenges during the development of a wide variety of structurally transforming multi-mode products, therefore facilitating better, more effective product design.

Experimental stone tool replication is an important method for understanding the context and production of prehistoric technologies. Experimental control is valuable for restricting the influence of confounding variables. Researchers can exert control in studies related to cognition and behavior by standardizing the type, form, and size of raw materials. Although standardization measures are already part of archaeological practice, specific protocols—let alone comparisons between standardization techniques—are rarely openly reported. Consequently, independent laboratories often repeat the costly trial-and-error process for selecting usable raw material types or forms. Here, we investigated various techniques and raw materials (such as hand-knapped flint, machine-cut basalt, manufactured glass, and porcelain) and evaluated them for validity, reliability, and standardizability. We describe the tests we performed, providing information on the individual approaches, as well as comparisons between the techniques and materials according to validity and reliability, along with relative costs. We end by providing recommendations. This is intended as a serviceable guide on raw material standardization for knapping experiments, including existing strategies and ones so far undescribed in the experimental archaeology literature. The future of this field would benefit from developments in the relevant technologies and methodologies, especially for those that are not yet widely available or affordable.