Prior research, largely focused on US male veterans, indicates an increased risk of cardiovascular disease among individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Data from other settings and populations are scarce. The objective of this study is to examine PTSD as a risk factor for incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in South Africa.

We analysed reimbursement claims (2011–2020) of a cohort of South African medical insurance scheme beneficiaries aged 18 years or older. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for associations between PTSD and MACEs using Cox proportional hazard models and calculated the effect of PTSD on MACEs using longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation.

We followed 1,009,113 beneficiaries over a median of 3.0 years (IQR 1.1–6.0). During follow-up, 12,662 (1.3%) persons were diagnosed with PTSD and 39,255 (3.9%) had a MACE. After adjustment for sex, HIV status, age, population group, substance use disorders, psychotic disorders, major depressive disorder, sleep disorders and the use of antipsychotic medication, PTSD was associated with a 16% increase in the risk of MACEs (aHR 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05–1.28). The risk ratio for the effect of PTSD on MACEs decreased from 1.59 (95% CI 1.49–1.68) after 1 year of follow-up to 1.14 (95% CI 1.11–1.16) after 8 years of follow-up.

Our study provides empirical support for an increased risk of MACEs in males and females with PTSD from a general population sample in South Africa. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring cardiovascular risk among individuals diagnosed with PTSD.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and ensuing restrictions have negatively affected the mental health and well-being of the general population, and there is increasing evidence suggesting that lockdowns have led to a disruption of health services. In March 2020, South Africa introduced a lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, entailing the suspension of all non-essential activities and a complete ban of tobacco and alcohol sales. We studied the effect of the lockdown on mental health care utilisation rates in private-sector care in South Africa.

We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis using insurance claims from 1 January 2017 to 1 June 2020 of beneficiaries 18 years or older from a large private sector medical insurance scheme. We calculated weekly outpatient consultation and hospital admission rates for organic mental disorders, substance use disorders, serious mental disorders, depression, anxiety, other mental disorders, any mental disorder and alcohol withdrawal syndrome. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for the effect of the lockdown on weekly outpatient consultation and hospital admission rates and the weekly change in rates during the lockdown until 1 June 2020.

710 367 persons were followed up for a median of 153 weeks. Hospital admission rates (OR 0.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33–0.44) and outpatient consultation rates (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.63–0.87) for any mental disorder decreased substantially after the introduction of the lockdown and did not recover to pre-lockdown levels by 1 June 2020. Health care utilisation rates for alcohol withdrawal syndrome doubled after the introduction of the lockdown, but the statistical uncertainty around the estimates was large (OR 2.24; 95% CI 0.69–7.24).

Mental health care utilisation rates for inpatient and outpatient services decreased substantially after the introduction of the lockdown. Hospital admissions and outpatient consultations for alcohol withdrawal syndrome increased after the introduction of the lockdown, but statistical uncertainty precludes strong conclusions about a potential unintended effect of the alcohol sales ban. Governments should integrate strategies for ensuring access and continuity of essential mental health services during lockdowns in pandemic preparedness planning.